By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello all and welcome to another bi-weekly off-season article. A couple of weeks ago, the first part of my “First Round Trades” article series was published. Today, I will conclude that series as I discuss fair value for Dynasty Owner rookie draft picks 1.07 through 1.12. If you haven’t read my previous article, I would urge you to do so before reading this one. Here is the summary I gave for the series two weeks ago…
“It’s no secret that this time of year is one of dynasty fantasy football lovers’ favorites. As I mentioned in my article from two weeks ago, there are many NFL happenings in March and April. These events reach their climax at the NFL Draft. The draft provides hope to NFL teams as well as us as Dynasty Owners. Hope that the next season can be better than the previous. This is where draft picks come into play. Every year, there are 13 rookie draft picks that are assigned for the first round of every established Dynasty Owner league. All of these picks can be traded except for the 1.13 per the Dynasty Owner Constitution.
All of these first 12 picks can provide a great deal of hope to their Dynasty Owners, but in some cases they may present great opportunities as well. A team that is in “Win Now” mode may see the 1.06 as a pawn in his or her plan to acquire a veteran player. That is what this article series is going to be about. I will put together 12 trade examples that I deem to be fair value on both sides. I’ll discuss one trade for every pick in the first round excluding the 1.13. Some of these trades are actually real trades that have been made recently. Real trades will be highlighted in bold font and underlined.”
Published March 29, 2023
I’ll lay out the final six draft spots (1.07 to 1.12) in this article.
First Round Trades
1.07
1.07 = 1.10 & 2.06
1.07 = 1.09, 3.08 & 2024 3rd round rookie draft pick (TBD)
1.07 = Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372)
I made the last trade listed here. I traded away Trevor Lawrence to get the 1.07 draft pick. I admit this probably isn’t the greatest value I could have gotten for Trevor, but I had a plan. In this league, I already had Geno Smith ($25,000,000) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859). I was also severely depleted at the wide receiver position. After having no luck trading Geno, I decided to move Lawrence for the 1.07 pick. My hope is that as the draft draws closer, I can flip the pick for a cheaper, veteran receiver. I still own the 1.07 pick and hope to cash it in shortly.
1.08
1.08 = 1.12 & 2.03
1.08 = Treylon Burks ($3,592,398)
The 1.08 for a couple of picks at the 2nd round turn is just fine with me. If you want to move up to “get your guy” then I am good with it.
Additionally, I saw a real life Dynasty Owner trade where someone traded the 1.08 for Treylon Burks. Fine value here as well. While I wouldn’t consider Burks a proven NFL wide receiver, he is more proven than the options you will have at receiver with the 1.08 rookie draft pick. With the 1.08 pick, you are starting to get into Zay Flowers and Josh Downs territory. Both are fine prospects who I would like to have on my Dynasty Owner team, but I see Burks making a real career advancement this year as he becomes the true #1 receiver for Tennessee.
1.09
1.09 = 3.06 & your 2024 1st round rookie draft pick (TBD)
1.09 = Diontae Johnson ($18,355,000)
If you are a gambler and you want to bet on yourself this season, then you could propose your 2024 1st round pick for the 1.09 pick this year. Ideally, I would like this year’s pick to be closer to 1.06, but you could do it between 1.06 and 1.09. This only works if you are confident that you will not only make the playoffs, but also make a deep run. If you have a team that is good enough to win it all, you will gain a few draft spots.
Johnson had a down year and a massive contract increase. I expect a moderate rebound in 2023, so the 1.09 pick for him makes sense if you are desperate for a proven, starting WR.
1.10
1.10 = 2.04 & 2.07
1.10 = Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000)
Lockett for a 1.10 rookie draft pick is purely an age move. Yes, Lockett will almost certainly outproduce any wide receiver who you will draft in 2023, but he is past 30 years of age. As we know, 30 is around the age when wide receivers start to see a drop off in production. This isn’t true of every player, but on average it is a trend. I like either side of this trade depending on if you are trying to rebuild or win now.
1.11
1.11 = 2.08 & Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,000,000)
1.11 = Khalil Herbert ($902,677)
1.12
1.12 = 2.05 & 2.06
This is your last chance to jump into the 1st round. Sometimes the stigma of drafting a player in the 1st round will overpower logic. Some people are desperate to gobble up every 1st round draft pick they can, and this would include the 1.12 pick. You can use this to your advantage and gain two picks in the middle of the 2nd round. Obviously the players you draft won’t have as great of a pedigree, but at the 1.12 pick, it’s starting to become a little less certain as to which players are “bust proof”.
Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk