By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
What a happy and uplifting article title! While the title sounds a little bit harsh, it’s not as bad as it could be since being a professional football player is actually a little bit of a growth industry right now with the return of the XFL this year and the USFL being in its second year. Admittedly, those XFL and USFL salaries are a fraction of the NFL league minimum salary of $750,000 per year, but it’s better than what’s happening at other companies. A quick search finds layoffs at ESPN started on Monday and there were large layoffs just last week at Whole Foods, Meta, Opendoor, Lyft and Deloitte.
Last season, each NFL team could have a 53-man roster, so that’s a total of 1,590 NFL player jobs. No expansion on the horizon so the only way that number of jobs is going to go up is if NFL roster sizes increase. As a result, there will be the same number of NFL players in 2023 as there were in 2022. I know that there are players on Injured Reserve, players are signed and cut on a daily basis (especially kickers) and teams can have up to 16 players on their practice squads, so the real number of jobs is larger. The point is that the NFL isn’t like the private sector in that they have a roster limit as well as a salary cap. If a NFL team really likes a couple of players at the same position, they have to make the difficult decision to cut one of them or keep them and cut somebody else. For every player coming out of college this year (drafted or undrafted) who goes to training camp and tries out for a NFL roster, there is one veteran player who is going to training camp and fighting to keep his roster spot.
Last year, we had the situation with Chase Claypool ($1,654,156) announcing the Steelers’ second round selection of George Pickens ($1,688,045). Twitter went ablaze with comments about how Claypool just welcomed his replacement to the team. At least that’s how I remember it. Now, I can’t find any of those comments now despite multiple searches of Twitter. Of course, the Steelers denied this, and everyone spent the off-season figuring out how to rank Claypool, Pickens and Diontae Johnson ($18,355,000) and the Steelers’ offense. Then right before the NFL trade deadline in November, the Steelers indeed did trade Claypool to the Chicago Bears.
Will the same thing happen in 2023? If so, what team, player and draft pick will be involved? If you can predict this, then I need to talk with you more in depth prior to making any future gambling bets. You also need to join the Dynasty Owner Draft Pick Challenge, earn yourself $10,000 for picking the perfect first round and change your name to Nostradamus.
In an effort to try and predict what will happen in the NFL labor market this season and before this week’s NFL Draft, let’s look at some players who could be losing their starting job this season. Not all of these players will be on the bench Week 1 as sometimes it takes a few weeks for a rookie to work his way into the starting lineup, like Kenny Pickett ($3,516,976) or Ken Walker ($2,110,395) did last year. Others will be the starter on Day 1, like Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) was in Jacksonville back in 2021. Despite what happened last year with Claypool and Pickens, it’s doubtful that any of these players will be announcing their replacement since Roger Goodell does all of the first round pick announcements and most of these observations are first round NFL Draft predictions.
All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
Contract information for all players can be found on the Dynasty Owner platform. Just go to the player’s profile page and click Contract to see if there is any new contract news.
For the purposes of this article, salaries and roster percentages were current as of the morning of April 25th.
Quarterback
It should come as no surprise that several teams are expected to draft players they expect to be their franchise QBs on Thursday night. Carolina and Indianapolis seem to be locks to draft a QB, while there are stories that Houston might not go with a QB at the #2 spot in the draft. I won’t believe that until it actually happens though and will fill out my personal Draft Pick Challenge entry accordingly. The most likely current “starting” QBs who are losing their job are:
- Andy Dalton (QB – CAR): 1 year/$5,000,000 – 51.49% roster percentage
This is pretty obvious as Carolina appears to be completely locked into drafting a QB and making their #1 draft pick the starter. Dalton is the veteran backup who mentors the #1 pick while he learns on the job. Dalton was the starter for most of 2022 in New Orleans and finished as QB23 in Dynasty Owner. He had 210.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games played, which is an average of just 16.22 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That’s not nearly enough production to survive as the starter in Carolina unless their #1 pick gets injured during training camp. Dalton will likely be holding a clipboard and wearing a headset for the 2023 season.
- Gardner Minshew (QB – IND): 1 year/$3,500,000 – 95.32% roster percentage
As Yogi Berra said, “It’s déjà vu all over again.” Minshew was the Jaguars incumbent starting QB before they drafted Trevor Lawrence and now, he’s listed as the Colts starting QB. Even though they signed Minshew to a free agent contract this off-season, it appears that after four consecutive seasons of starting a different veteran QB after the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck, the Colts are going to draft a QB in the first round of the NFL Draft. Whether they stay at the fourth spot in the first round or move up, it’s going to happen. The big question is which QBs will be available to them and which one they select. Either way, that makes Minshew a backup (once again).
- Davis Mills (QB – HOU): 2 years/$1,304,383 – 98.72% roster percentage
Mills is in the third spot because while I think Houston should take their QB of the future with the second pick in the NFL Draft, it’s not a lock that they do it and Mills becomes the backup. Going with Mills and Case Keenum ($3,125,000) as the QB duo in Houston is just as bad as last year when the Texans had Mills, Kyle Allen ($1,232,500) and Jeff Driskel ($1,080,000) all play QB in at least one game.
There are a few other teams that may need a QB, such as Atlanta, Las Vegas, Minnesota, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Depending on how things progress with Lamar Jackson ($32,416,000) and his contract situation, the Ravens could be added to this list too . However, I don’t think that any of those teams take a QB in the first round this year who will start Week 1, so their current starting QB can rest easy about his job. For now.
Running Back
Running backs are different as NFL teams are reluctant to draft RBs in the first round now. Bijan Robinson might be different though and he could be the highest RB drafted since the Giants took Saquon Barkley ($10,091,000) with the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Since then, the highest first round pick spent on a RB is the 24th pick and last year, Breece Hall ($2,253,694) was the first RB taken with the fourth pick in the second round (36th overall pick). Pretty much whichever team drafts Bijan Robinson in the first round is making him their starting RB and their current starter becomes a backup or is let go. Here are the RBs most likely to be out of a starting job by the end of the week.
- Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): 2 years/$12,000,000 – 100% roster percentage
If the Bengals are able to draft Bijan Robinson with the 28th pick in the first round, then the stories about the Bengals asking Mixon to take a pay cut or be released will be much more real than they are today. It’s possible that Mixon stays with Cincinnati if they draft Robinson, or even if Robinson is taken earlier and the Bengals draft Jahmyr Gibbs. Either way, Mixon is my top choice to lose his starting job and maybe even be cut after the NFL Draft. That wouldn’t exactly be terrible news for Dynasty Owners with Mixon though as they can drop him and his $12 million contract for free if he’s released. They could also hold on to him until he signs with a new team or accepts a restructured deal with the Bengals and pocket the salary cap savings.
- James Conner (RB – ARI): 2 years/$7,000,000 – 100% roster percentage
The Cardinals won’t take Bijan Robinson with the third overall pick, but the Cardinals could trade down with a team anxious to move up and draft a QB if the Texans don’t take one with the second pick. I’m struggling to come up with a team that has a late round pick who might make a deal with Arizona, but you never know. Even if they use their first round pick on someone other than a RB, they still have the 34th overall pick (third pick of the second round) and could grab Gibbs with it. With no Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) for the start of the 2023 season, a RB duo of Gibbs and Conner could be an option for the Cardinals. None of the other RBs on the Cardinals current roster are safe from being released, so adding a RB at some point in the NFL Draft should happen and if it’s an early round pick, Conner could lose his starting job.
I’m going to stop at two players here as the main other potential landing spots for Robinson are places that don’t really have a true starting RB (Atlanta, Buffalo, Miami, and Philadelphia) so nobody is technically losing a job in my opinion. Dallas remains a possibility since Tony Pollard ($10,091,000) is only signed to a franchise tag and they have no backup after releasing Ezekiel Elliott ($15,000,000). There were stories about a week ago about the Chargers drafting Bijan with the 21st pick, but if that happens and they trade Austin Ekeler ($6,125,000) then Ekeler becomes the starter for whatever team trades for him. I’m not going to speculate on that potential outcome right now as I think Ekeler stays in powder blue for at least this upcoming season.
Wide Receiver
Pretty much every NFL team could draft a WR in one of the first couple of rounds and that draft pick could end up as a starter. Cincinnati might be the only exception with Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910), Tee Higgins ($2,171,696) and Tyler Boyd ($10,750,000). Personally, I don’t think Dallas will draft a WR early since they have CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), Brandin Cooks ($19,882,000) and Michael Gallup ($11,500,000) occupying the top three spots on their WR depth chart. Jerry Jones is liable to do anything though, so I can’t rule it out completely. However, there are teams who are more likely than others to draft a WR early and install that draft pick as an immediate starter and demote these players.
- Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): 1 year/$998,595 – 100% roster percentage
Last year’s fantasy breakdown darling is now this year’s prime candidate to take a back seat in the Bills’ offense. His 2022 Dynasty Owner start-up draft ADP was 66.3 and he finished the 2022 season as WR30 and the overall #87 ranked player with 177.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 15 games played (11.83 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). That’s not bad, but it’s a far cry from what people were anticipating prior to the season. With only one season remaining on his rookie contract, are the Bills going to keep Davis or find a replacement with the 27th pick in the first round? If Bijan Robinson is somehow still there, the answer is a resounding No, but if Bijan is gone, it’s possible. Khalil Shakir ($1,001,787) could have also been listed here as he’s the Bills’ WR3 right now after Buffalo released Isaiah McKenzie ($1,232,500) in mid-March, but I went with the higher profile name and the guy who was a starter last season instead.
- Chris Moore (WR – TEN): 1 year/$1,187,500 – 14.04% roster percentage
By the time this is published, Moore may have an updated salary on the Dynasty Owner platform as he signed a few days ago with Tennessee, but without a listed salary for the 2023 season. The $1,187,500 amount was his 2022 salary, but I wouldn’t expect it to rise much over the league minimum for a player with his years of service. I also don’t expect him to be one of the Titans’ starting WRs when the 2023 season starts either. Right now, the top returning Tennessee WR is 2022 first round pick Treylon Burks ($3,592,398). The only WR other than Moore who has played in the NFL for more than two seasons is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($1,260,000). I’ve got Westbrook-Ikhine as more likely than Moore to remain as a starter and will hold to that even if the Titans wait until the second round to draft a WR as taking one with the 11th overall pick seems a bit too high unless they go with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
- Noah Brown (WR – HOU): 1 year/$2,600,000 – 57.02% roster percentage
Chris Moore’s replacement in Houston appears to be former Cowboys WR Noah Brown who had a career best 111.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season and finished as WR62. John Metchie ($2,017,543) who was drafted in the second round by Houston last year, but sat out the entire 2022 season after being diagnosed with leukemia, may be back to push for a starting spot as well. Because the Texans already have Robert Woods ($7,625,000) and Nico Collins ($1,217,879), if they indeed draft a WR with the 12th pick or even with the second pick in the second round, Brown could be out of a job in Houston completely, not just out of a starting WR job. Way too early to predict that, but Brown seems much less likely to stick around than Collins, Metchie, and Woods if the Texans use a high pick on WR.
- Romeo Doubs (WR – GB): 3 years/$1,085,979 – 99.57% roster percentage
- Samouri Toure (WR – GB): 1 year/$934,252 – 19.57% roster percentage
Yes, those are indeed the current two starting WRs in Green Bay besides Christian Watson ($2,310,258) now that Allen Lazard ($11,000,000) has left for New York City to play with Aaron Rodgers for the Jets. The fact that the Packers might finally draft a WR in the first round for Jordan Love ($3,095,863) after never doing so for Rodgers is pretty comical. It’s pretty likely to happen with the Packers sitting with the 13th overall pick in the first round thanks to finally completing the trade of Rodgers to the Jets. If I had to bet on who the Packers starting WRs were going to be at the beginning of the 2023 season, I’d go with Watson, whichever WR they draft first in the 2023 NFL Draft and a veteran free agent like Jarvis Landry ($3,000,000) or Demarcus Robinson ($1,035,000).
Teams like Baltimore, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Rams are also in the market for WRs and any of the Baltimore WRs or K.J. Osborn ($890,693) could have made the top 5 list above. However, with the Ravens and Vikings having two of the top receiving TEs out there, I decided to leave them off. The Rams do have an early second round pick (fifth pick in the second round and 36th overall pick) and they might be drafting whoever is going to play opposite Cooper Kupp ($26,700,000) with that pick. There are also teams like Seattle and the Los Angeles Chargers who have two veteran, high-salary WRs as their starters but could be looking for replacements in the future, not necessarily in 2023.
Tight End
With an expected bumper crop of rookie TEs, several teams could be drafting a player who they hope turns into the next Travis Kelce ($14,312,500) early in this year’s NFL Draft. These are players who might be taking snaps with the second team come training camp as a result.
- Irv Smith Jr. (TE – CIN): 1 year/$1,750,000 – 97.87% roster percentage
The Bengals don’t really need another weapon on offense for Joe Burrow ($9,047,534), do they? The argument was there that they didn’t need one last year either, but ended up signing Hayden Hurst ($7,250,000) to a one-year deal and he finished as TE20 with 110.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hurst is more durable than Irv Smith Jr., his current replacement in Cincinnati, as Hurst has missed only 11 games in five NFL seasons. Smith missed 9 games last season and has missed 29 games in four NFL seasons, including the entire 2021 season. The end of the first round seems like an ideal spot for the Bengals to get whichever available TE they want the most and move Smith into a backup role.
- Josiah Deguara (TE – GB): 1 year/$1,136,941– 26.81% roster percentage
In addition to needing help at WR, the Packers also need a starting TE. With the departure of Robert Tonyan ($2,650,000) to Chicago, the only TEs on the Packers’ roster who caught a pass in 2022 are Deguara and Tyler Davis ($1,040,000) who had a combined 17 receptions last year and 47 career receptions. If WR is the top position of need for Green Bay, then TE is close behind in second place. Don’t be surprised if the Packers take a TE with their first round pick, then a WR with their second round pick. After all, they haven’t taken a first round TE since Bubba Franks back in 2000, which is even longer since they drafted a WR in the first round (Javon Walker in 2002).
There are plenty of other teams who could take an early round TE with Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami and Washington being most likely. All of them have multiple TEs on their current depth chart already, but there’s no real clear-cut starter for four of these teams. Washington is the exception with Logan Thomas ($8,021,667) clearly at the top of the Commanders depth chart. However, I think both Cincinnati and Green Bay are more likely to draft an early round TE and make Smith and Deguara backups to a rookie.
Conclusion
Not all of the dozen players listed above is guaranteed to lose their job and if they do, most will still be employed in the NFL during the 2023 season. We’ll know this Thursday night (April 27th) starting at 8 PM who gets drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, followed by the second and third rounds on Friday night (April 28th) starting at 7 PM. The final four rounds (Rounds 4-7) are held on Saturday (April 29th) starting at Noon. All times are Eastern, even though the draft is in Kansas City, which is located in the Central Time Zone.
Thanks for reading and being a Dynasty Owner. All existing teams are now under the $157.36 million salary cap (unless a recent contract change put them over) and new start-up Dynasty Owner league drafts commence on May 6th. Rookie drafts will have a staggered start in May as well. Time to get a new team and prepare those existing teams for the rookie drafts.
In addition to this article, Matt Morrison – The Jerk had his first Best Case, Worse Case article published on Monday, while Jay Pounds and I will have a NFL Draft first round reaction article on Friday. Jay and I will also have a new Dynasty Owner podcast dropping this week before the NFL Draft and the Livestream will be on Friday at 10 AM (Eastern) so Tim and I can react (and overreact to what happened in the first round of the NFL Draft). Prior episodes of the Livestream are available on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Please remember to give us a Thumbs Up and help out Dynasty Owner. It is appreciated. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner