By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)
Dynasty Owners, welcome back! I believe this will be my last article for a few weeks as my family is getting ready to move into our first home! Exciting right? I know it’s not as exciting as Dynasty Owner startup drafts, so we won’t waste any more time on non-football related things.
The first thing I want to mention is the fact we have so many awesome orphan teams available in the D.O. store right now at a very low price. I clicked on 7 or 8 of these teams and my biggest takeaway is that there are teams for everyone available regardless of if you love a good rebuild, want something you can contend with quickly, or the occasional team that could win a League Championship this year. Be sure to check them all out to find your perfect team and let us know if you purchase one. If you do and you are up for it, one of us can do an article about how we would handle your new roster.
In today’s article I am going to talk about the players I would avoid in each round based on their current startup Dynasty Owner draft ADP. I want to emphasize that being on this list does not mean the player is bad or that I don’t want him on my team, I just see better values with a lower ADP.
All ADPs listed were current as of the afternoon of June 5th.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) – 9 years/$45,000,000 – ADP 8.9
If you are new here, please don’t click away because you see Patrick Mahomes on this list and allow me to explain. Mahomes is a great player, heck he is a Hall of Famer already, the best quarterback in the NFL and on the Dynasty Owner platform. However, at a salary of $45,000,000 per season, I can’t advise taking him in the first round of a Dynasty Owner startup draft as it will make filling out the rest of your roster extremely tough. In this format, I believe it is imperative to draft high-end players who are still on their rookie contract in the first two rounds of startup drafts and then you can look at veterans with bigger contracts. I believe the perfect spot for Mahomes in startup drafts is the 2-3 turn where you will have multiple picks in a short span to secure a high-end player on a rookie deal to pair with Mahomes and your first-round draft selection. I am not confident that Mahomes’ salary will remain at $45,000,000 a year from now, but I would be more likely to draft him if it were.
2.Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) – 1 year/$10,091,000 – ADP 23.5
Saquon Barkley had a great 2022 season, and I am sure he will be productive in 2023 should he stay healthy for the majority of the season. You may be wondering why he is on this list after that statement and as always, I will explain. While Barkley was great, he has shown himself to be injury prone throughout his career and when you pair that with the expectation of a big new contract I am staying away this early in a startup draft. There are several players I would rather have with a lower ADP. For instance, Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264) is being taken a few picks after Barkley (ADP 24.6) and I’m taking Stevenson ten times out of ten over Barkley here on Dynasty Owner. Stevenson offers huge salary cap savings (over $9,000,000), what should be similar production, and he has another year left on his rookie deal.
3.Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) – 1 year/$12,500,000 – ADP 31.0
I feel like I am hating all of these players and I swear it’s not the case, I just see much better options with a lower ADP. I would bet money none of the players below King Henry will take over games the way Henry has, but the reality is, Henry isn’t a spring chicken anymore and humans don’t get younger, yet. Come on, Elon, we are waiting! With Henry nearing his 30th birthday and a lot of unknowns heading into next season, I can’t draft Henry ahead of players with lower ADPs like Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858), or Tony Pollard ($10,091,000) who are ADP 36.5 and 37.4 respectively and heading into the prime of their careers with a lot less mileage on their body. I would feel comfortable drafting Henry near the 4/5 turn in hopes for one more great year in Tennessee and a roster spot on the Buffalo Bills or another contender come 2024!
4.Christian Watson (WR – GB) – 3 years/$2,310,258 – ADP 46.2
I think this was probably the hardest of all the rounds to choose from and it came down to Christian Watson ($2,310,258) and Miles Sanders ($6,350,000) who has an ADP of 48.1. I went with Watson over Sanders simply because of the unknowns for the Packers this season with Jordan Love ($3,095,863) finally getting his chance to shine while Watson’s former quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) is with the New York Jets. I do love the talent of Watson, but he excelled in the red zone last season, and I have to see Jordan Love in the red zone before I can feel confident Watson will be a candidate for double digit touchdowns moving forward. While Watson isn’t a terrible choice here, I would much rather have Michael Pittman ($2,153,213), who has a 54.8 ADP, as I have seen Pittman perform well with below average quarterback play the last couple of seasons.
5.Treylon Burks (WR – TEN) – 3 years/$3,592,398 – ADP 62.6
Alright those of you Jimmy Neutrons out there caught me. Treylon Burks does have an ADP of 62.6 which is technically the sixth round. Yes, I cheated on this one. It was much easier this way, trust me! The only player with an actual fifth round ADP who was considered here was Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000) with all of the news that he will be cut here soon, but I have no doubt he will catch on quick with a contender and have a good year. I went with Burks because I did not see much to be excited about last season and this is coming from a guy who loved Burks coming out of Arkansas. Would I still take a chance on Burks a little later in the draft? Absolutely but not in the early sixth round. I see Jerry Jeudy ($3,798,244) a few spots down with an ADP of 64.9 and I would much rather have him now that Sean Payton is wearing the Broncos’ headset.
6.Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) – 2 years/$12,000,000 – ADP 68.5
Up next, we have another veteran star running back who has had rumors about being released, Joe Mixon. I am not sure Mixon will be released at this point, but I am fairly certain that this will be his last year in a Bengals’ uniform, unless he were to agree to a big pay cut. The Bengals have their three most important players set for new deals in the next year and Mixon will surely become a cap casualty sooner rather than later. Teams have proven to be successful with multiple cheaper running backs and the Bengals will likely be one of the next teams to choose that path. While Mixon is still a huge name and would sell tickets, he is not all that efficient on the field posting just one 100-yard rushing game in 2022 and will more than likely never see a workhorse role after leaving Cincinnati!
7.Jameson Williams (WR – DET) – 3 years/$4,365,448 – ADP 84.3
It hurts my heart to have Jameson Williams on this list, but there was no getting around it with the news of his six-game suspension. In all honesty, his ADP may drop later on this off-season, but I am not taking Williams before the middle/end of the eighth round. Williams is unbelievably talented but missed a big chunk of his rookie season due to an injury in college and will now miss a big part of his second NFL season because of a gambling suspension. If Williams returns from suspension and turns out to be the player the Lions expected when they drafted him, he will be a steal, but that is a big gamble (see what I did there?) at this point. I forgot to mention the reason having Williams on this list is painful is because I traded Terry McLaurin ($22,788,000) for him a few days before the suspension was announced.
8.Amari Cooper (WR – CLE) – 2 years/$20,000,000 – ADP 92.6
Amari Cooper is being drafted before Terry McLaurin who has an ADP of 103.8. I should probably just stop after this sentence, it’s all I need to write for this one. In all honesty, Cooper is not my main worry with this selection, it’s how bad Deshaun Watson ($46,000,000) looked when he returned from his almost two-year hiatus. If Watson returns to form, this won’t be a bad pick at all, but I am not so sure that will happen as I did not see much of a game-by-game improvement in 2023. Now to my concerns around Cooper! While Cooper has scored over 200.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in each of his four seasons on Dynasty Owner, he has been wildly inconsistent while doing so. It always seems like Cooper blows up or has a single digit game and at such a high salary, I can’t justify selecting him at his ADP in Dynasty Owner startup drafts. Cooper is also getting up there in age and will turn 29 on June 18th. At this point in the draft, be sure to check out your league mates salary cap situations. If most are getting up there in salary, I would save Cooper for the later rounds.
9.Jamaal Williams (RB – NO) – 3 years/$4,000,000 – ADP 104.6
In the 9 spot, we have another player I hate to put on this list as I don’t have my first ever undefeated season without Jamaal Williams on my team, but the reality is that he is another year older and plays for a new team in 2023. While Williams’ new teammate Alvin Kamara ($15,000,000) will likely face a suspension, I am not expecting huge things from Williams in a Saints’ uniform. The reason I say this is because Jamaal Williams needs two things to be effective and that’s a coach who doesn’t mind running it up the middle a lot and getting nothing but a bunch of 3-5 yard gains, and a lot of red zone touches. The red zone touches are my main worry for Williams as the Saints love to use Taysom Hill ($10,000,000) there which will only hurt Williams’ value throughout the season. Another concern is the fact they drafted Kendre Miller ($1,413,580) who has the skill set to be a 3-down back at the NFL level.
10.Evan McPherson (K – CIN) – 2 years/$955,928 – ADP 112.7
I honestly still can’t wrap my head around this selection. I know we all need a kicker or three on our Dynasty Owner rosters, but why so early? In 2022, McPherson was excellent there is no doubt about it, but if I am taking a kicker in the tenth round, I need more than three double digit scoring weeks which is all McPherson had in 2022. McPherson is deserving of being the first kicker off of the board as he is in a high-powered offense, has a dirt-cheap salary, and still has two seasons remaining on his rookie contract, but the tenth round offers way too much talent to draft a player who scored just 113.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the upcoming Dynasty Owner content. We have the Dynasty Owner podcast, the Dynasty Owner Livestream, and articles to help with your Dynasty Owner teams. We also have a brand new content creator joining the team that you’ll surely want to check out. Buy an orphan and good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!