Need Production? Check Out Jay’s Top Free Agents
By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)
Dynasty Owners, I am finally back! It seems like it has been forever since I last put out an article so let’s get back into the swing of things. Rookie drafts have pretty much come and gone, and we now have a full ADP on every player as well as some type of expectation for the players freshly added to your roster. Speaking of drafts, don’t forget that Dynasty Owner has unlimited startup drafts happening over the next couple of months. Be sure to join one and don’t forget to give your affiliate code to anyone you get who is new to Dynasty Owner and joins a startup draft, so you get your $49 referral fee! Unfortunately, there is not much news around the NFL that will keep you all entertained any longer so let’s jump into today’s article instead of boring you to death. By the way, pre-season football starts in just over a month!
In today’s article, I will be covering eight players (two per position other than kicker) available in the Free Agent Auction who I believe can help contending teams win. Rebuilders can target these players as well for extra trade bait during the season. The only requirement for a player to make this list was that they had to be under 75% rostered in Dynasty Owner leagues.
Quarterback
- Sam Darnold (SF) – 1 year/$4,500,000 (70.73% rostered)
In an example like this, quarterbacks who produce are extremely tough to find in a trade let alone in the Free Agent Auction. I could have put two or more very expensive veteran quarterbacks on this list but in reality, only a select few of you have the salary cap space, or even a clear path to picking up a pricey veteran QB. During his career, Sam Darnold has been a downright awful quarterback outside of a 3-5 game stretch in Carolina last season. While Darnold alone isn’t an appealing option to anybody, Darnold coached by Kyle Shanahan is an intriguing pair for me because of the latter. Since becoming an offensive coordinator in the NFL, Shanahan has done nothing but instantly elevate the entire quarterback room wherever he has coached. Heck, Shanahan coached the Browns to a 7-4 start with Brian Hoyer ($2,250,000) under center and Hoyer hasn’t won a game since I was in high school. I know you may be thinking “but Jay, Darnold is not even the starter”. I would tell you that you are correct, but there is a real chance Brock Purdy ($934,252) is not ready for the first quarter of the season. If that scenario plays out, Darnold will become an instant value for Dynasty Owners. If Darnold sees the field, he will look much better than he has since his USC days. Call it a flag plant if you will.
- Colt McCoy (ARI) – 1 year/$3,750,000 (65.04% rostered)
The second and only other reasonable option at quarterback is none other than Cardinals backup Colt McCoy. McCoy should see the field for a few games to start the season while his teammate Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) works his way back from injury. As I mentioned with Darnold, McCoy is not a sexy option, but he will suffice as a Bench quarterback (25% of his points added to your total score) for a few weeks while users look for the next replacement quarterback to emerge. I am not expecting McCoy to do much as a starter, but a few Bench points each week sounds much better than a goose egg. Heck, how many times have you won a fantasy matchup by a couple of points? Colt McCoy can easily win you a matchup early in the year.
Running Back
- Latavius Murray (BUF) – 1 year/$1,317,500 (67.48% rostered)
Up next, we have a pick that could look really silly in the near future. At the moment, the Buffalo Bills do not have a surefire running back and are currently set to open the season with James Cook ($1,458,014) as the lead back. While I do not hate James Cook, I also do not see him being an every down back at this level. What does all of this mean? It means that journeyman Latavius Murray will see a ton of work once again. Somehow this guy always seems to find himself as a starter at least a few times a season and when Murray does start, he tends to produce. I would not be surprised one bit if we see a timeshare in Buffalo should they stand pat. My biggest concern for Murray right now is the potential signing of free agent Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000). Should Dalvin end up with his brother in Buffalo, Murray won’t see much work barring injury.
- Ezekiel Elliott (Free Agent) – $15,000,000 (72.36% rostered)
I know this selection will make many of you cringe, but I feel Zeke has another solid fantasy season or two left in him. At the current moment, Zeke carries a $15,000,000 price tag, but he is a guarantee to get a significant pay cut when he signs with his new team. My prediction for Zeke would be in the range of $2,500,000 per season which is much more reasonable for Dynasty Owners to fit under their salary cap. In the past, I have preached about how rebuilding Dynasty Owners should always have salary cap space and this is exactly why. If you are rebuilding, I would recommend picking up Zeke and holding him until he gets a serious pay cut. Once he signs with a new team at a reduced rate, I would then move him for a draft pick that you will earn for simply having cap space in the off-season. Regardless of where Zeke signs, I am expecting him to see over 125 touches and quite a bit of red zone work making him well worth a reduced salary. As far as contenders with minimal salary cap space are concerned, you will likely have to wait and try to outbid your league mates once Zeke signs a deal.
Wide Receiver
- Darius Slayton (NYG) – 2 years/$6,000,000 (45.12% rostered)
Darius Slayton quietly had a really good 2022 season under new Giants head coach Brian Daboll. While 2022 was not a career year for Slayton, he did finish just 27 yards away from setting a career high in receiving yards, though he did struggle in the red zone where he only produced two scores. The Giants did not bring in or draft any big-name receivers this off-season which should only mean a big season is in store for Slayton. At $6,000,000, it is a little more than I would like to pay him, but he is a solid player who you should be able to count on week in and week out, plus a second year in Daboll’s system should only benefit Slayton moving forward. If you have the cap space and Slayton is available, I would definitely put in a bid for him and see what happens.
- Robert Woods (HOU) – 2 years/$7,625,000 (46.34% rostered)
In the second wide receiver spot of the day, we have longtime veteran Robert Woods. Many people will likely shy away from Woods because of his struggles with the Titans in 2022, but I believe there is still plenty of gas in the tank and the issue was more fit and quarterback play than anything else. Woods has always been a player who works hard and does the right thing, which makes him someone youngster C.J. Stroud ($9,069,811) should lean on early and often because of his experience. Woods is a little pricey for a gamble, but there aren’t many other places where you can get a team’s number 1 receiver without paying up big time, especially when that receiver has an extremely talented quarterback under center. Woods won’t have any huge games for you, but should he return to his Rams’ pre-2021 form, he will be a player you can throw on your Bench and forget about.
Tight End
- Hayden Hurst (CAR) – 3 years/$7,250,000 (72.36% rostered)
Up next, we have 2022’s number 20 ranked tight end, Hayden Hurst. While I am not expecting Hurst to outperform his numbers from last season by a ton, I do believe he will make for a nice Bench/bye week fill in tight end. Call me crazy but I am expecting better numbers out of Hurst in 2023 despite the downgrade at quarterback as Hurst won’t have to share the field with two elite receivers. I also believe the fact that Hurst is playing with a rookie quarterback will help as I believe he will end up as Bryce Young’s ($9,488,768) safety net early in the season. At $7,625,000, Hurst is an expensive safety net but sometimes you have to spend big to provide quality depth for your roster.
- Robert Tonyan (CHI) – 1 year/$2,650,000 (66.26% rostered)
In the final spot of the day, we have Chicago Bears newcomer Robert Tonyan. I know the Bears have Cole Kmet ($1,894,445) who came on strong at the end of last season, but I believe Tonyan is the better fit with QB Justin Fields ($4,717,989), and it won’t be long before we see it play out on the field. The Bears added D.J. Moore ($20,628,000) and Tonyan in the off-season and no one else of importance leaving plenty of targets to come Tonyan’s way this season. If Fields elevates his game further in 2023, there will be at least one or two value players to be had from this Bears’ offense. Grab them now while they are cheap, it won’t hurt much if you’re wrong.
Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the other awesome Dynasty Owner content coming your way. Stay tuned for articles from Matt, Nick, Steve and myself as well as the Dynasty Owner podcast and the Dynasty Owner Livestream. Stay safe out there and good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!