The Goldilocks Principle of Dynasty Owner
By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
The Goldilocks principle is named after the children’s story “Goldilocks and the Three Bears“. In case you’re not familiar and don’t want to click the link, I’ll summary the story for you. Goldilocks tastes three different bowls of porridge and finds she prefers porridge that is neither too hot nor too cold, but has just the right temperature. The phrase “too hot, too cold, just right” is often used to describe the Goldilocks principle and I’ll use it in this article in the following manner.
- Too Hot – being drafted too high and their Average Draft Position (ADP) is a lower number than it should be
- Too Cold – being drafted too low and their ADP is a higher number than it should be
- Just Right – being drafted pretty much on target of ADP
For Dynasty Owner, I’m going to look at the current Dynasty Owner startup ADPs and find a player at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who fits into each of the three categories. No kickers again in this article. You’re welcome to everyone who doesn’t like kickers or want them in Dynasty Owner.
Overall, I found the WRs to be the hardest players to judge as there are so many of them and the differences sometimes were very small in their ADPs, past production and projected Dynasty Owner fantasy points. It’s a solid mix of players with a couple of rookies included and a lot of players still on their rookie contract. There are also a few veterans who have gotten paid. It is possible for Dynasty Owners to be “too hot” on a good player on a rookie contract and for him to not be worth his current Dynasty Owner startup draft ADP, or drafting a veteran with a high salary not soon enough and being cold on him.
Any salaries, ADPs and roster percentages listed were current as of the morning of August 22nd. All 2023 contract information is currently what is listed on the Dynasty Owner platform (number of years and salaries) and has been taken from Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/). Contracts and salaries are always subject to change and can potentially be increased. Check the Dynasty Owner Constitution for the ins and outs of when and how a contract change takes place.
Without further ado and with apologies to the millions of people who have read the Goldilocks and the Three Bears fairy tale and the hundreds of very smart people in the developmental psychology, biology, economics, engineering fields and even the planetary astronomy field (such as Stephen Hawking) who have spent years developing the Goldilocks principle, here is the Dynasty Owner fantasy football version of the classic story.
Players Who Dynasty Owners Are Too Hot to Trot For
There are plenty of players who are likely being drafted too high and won’t produce as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points as their draft position demands that they do to justify their ADP. They just aren’t a good “value”. In Dynasty Owner, “value” can mean both that they don’t score enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points at their ADP, but it can also mean that their salary is too expensive (or will be too expensive in the next year or two) compared to the number of Dynasty Owner fantasy points that they have produced in the past and are likely to produce this season.
These “too hot” players are a mix of both types. Two players who are very good and will likely be amongst the top scorers at their position, but are just too expensive in terms of salary to take as early as they are being drafted right now. The other two players are on rookie contracts, but they are being drafted well before they should be based on the amount of Dynasty Owner fantasy points they have scored in the past and are projected to score this year.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) – 9 years/$45,000,000; ADP 7.4
Mahomes is the first QB off the board in Dynasty Owner startup drafts based on his ADP of 7.4 and unfortunately for everyone drafting him, that’s too high to be taking the two-time Super Bowl Champion. This has nothing to do with his performance on the field, off the field or his status as possibly the number 1 QB in fantasy football. Mahomes has finished as no lower than QB6 in Dynasty Owner since the 2019 season and was the overall top scoring player on the platform in 2022 with 534.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He is also projected to score the most points overall in 2023 with 483.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. With the Dynasty Owner scoring system awarding six points for a passing TD (unlike many leagues that only give four points for a passing TD), the scoring system works in favor of taking a QB earlier.
Instead, it has everything to do with Dynasty Owner using real NFL salaries and contracts and Mahomes’ being the fifth most expensive player in Dynasty Owner right now. It is true that he will definitely fall to seventh place next season and maybe even further depending upon Joe Burrow’s ($9,047,534) contract negotiations.
The risk in using your first round pick on Mahomes is that if something happens and he misses even a game or two, it will be more difficult for Dynasty Owners in startup leagues to put together a winning team if they draft Mahomes in the first round than if they draft another player with a lower salary then pick Mahomes in the second round. I’d rather wait and see if Mahomes lasts to my second round pick and take Burrow or Josh Allen ($43,005,667). Because both Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) and Justin Fields ($4,717,989) have two years left on their rookie contracts, they can be just as good of a selection even if they score less. All of those players, except Allen, will allow you to construct a better supporting cast than drafting Mahomes with your first pick.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) – 1 year/$10,091,000; ADP 23.0
Barkley is being drafted generally at the back end of the second round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts. He is the ninth RB off a typical Dynasty Owner draft board on average, but only Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) has a higher salary. His ADP makes sense if you look at the 2023 projections (279.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points), which would rank him third among RBs. If you believe those projected points, it does make sense to take him over both Tony Pollard ($10,091,000) and Josh Jacobs ($10,091,000) who are projected for 36.6 fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points (Pollard) and 37.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (Jacobs) with identical contracts and salaries. Both are being drafted about a full round later (34.8 ADP for Jacobs and 37.0 ADP for Pollard).
However, Barkley is still being drafted earlier than he has finished in the overall Dynasty Owner rankings in his entire career. Last year was the best season of his career and he was still the overall #26 player in terms of points. His next best season was 2019 when he was the overall #42 player. In both 2020 and 2021, he didn’t even finish as RB23, never mind the overall #23 player.
Having Barkley off the board when RBs with much lower salaries such as Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264) at over $9 million less in salary have a similar ADP (25.2) seems to be a situation in which Dynasty Owners are drafting based on pedigree. Barkley was the overall #2 draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft after all.
Drake London (WR – ATL) – 3 years/$5,383,617; ADP 29.2
What am I missing here? Why is Drake London being drafted in the middle of the third round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts, while Christian Watson ($2,310,528) who is nearly $3 million less in salary, has the same number of years left on his contract, and who finished with nearly as many Dynasty Owner fantasy points as Drake last year (165.0 for Watson versus 175.6 for London) is being taken at the start of the fifth round (ADP 51.0)?
With his ADP, Drake London is the eleventh WR off the board in a typical Dynasty Owner startup draft. He is effectively the WR1 for a Dynasty Owner team and in his only season, he finished as WR33 and is projected to be WR24 this season. That’s your WR2 or FLEX spot, not your WR1. London averaged just 10.33 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game on a team that ran the ball a lot in 2022. The Falcons ranked second in the NFL with 32.9 rushing attempts per game and next to last in passing attempts with 24.4 per game. They also drafted RB Bijan Robinson ($5,489,634) with their first round pick in the NFL Draft and return a 1,000 yard rusher from last year in Tyler Allgeier ($998,474). I can’t imagine that they plan to run the ball less in 2023, so how is London going to improve on his 2022 performance. He led the Falcons in targets with 117, nearly a 30% target share, as Kyle Pitts ($8,227,624) missed seven games. With Pitts healthy, London might get fewer targets if the Falcons continue to run as much as they did last season.
I can’t even think about drafting London in the third round of a Dynasty Owner startup draft. He’s not a WR1 for a contending Dynasty Owner team and should be going closer to where Dynasty Owners are drafting Christian Watson, one to two rounds later.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI) – 1 year $1,894,445; ADP 107.5
Finally, I went with a player who isn’t being drafted in the first couple of rounds. It’s kind of easy to do players who are being drafted early, but more difficult to find one who is not being taken as one of the top five or top ten players at his position, or inside the top 50, but is still being drafted “too high”.
Bears TE Cole Kmet fits that profile though as he is a ninth round Dynasty Owner startup draft pick on average. Even though he’s the 11th TE being taken in Dynasty Owner startup drafts, it’s still too high for me for several reasons.
First, while he was the TE9 in 2022, he basically had two great games (Weeks 9 and 10) in which he scored almost one-third of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the season (45.4 out of 146.3 points, or 31%).
Second, he has only scored 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 10 games in three seasons (50 games played) and in six of those games, he had a TD reception. With only nine career TD receptions, you aren’t getting a double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy point performance from Kmet unless he catches a TD, and he doesn’t do that very often.
Third, he had as many games with less than 5.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points as he did with 10.0 or more last season (5 each). Remember that last season was the best season of his career. He averaged only 8.61 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in his best season.
Finally, he just received a 4 year/$50 million contract extension, so his Dynasty Owner salary will be $12.5 million per year starting in the 2024 season. If he doesn’t produce this season, it’ll be difficult to justify keeping him on your Dynasty Owner team at that salary, so you may just be getting him for one season, then releasing him next year when that new contract kicks in.
It is true that Kmet finished the season strong after a very slow start to the 2022 season and he did average 10.15 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the Bears’ final four games after the team’s bye week. He was also Justin Fields’ ($4,717,989) top target (69 targets) last season and the duo should only improve their chemistry.
Players Who Dynasty Owners Are Too Cold as Ice On
Vanilla Ice said it best “Ice, Ice baby. Too cold. Ice, Ice baby. Too cold. Too cold.” Here’s the video – you know that you want to watch it, so go ahead and do it.
Just the opposite of the first set of players, here are players who Dynasty Owners aren’t drafting high enough. They are “too cold” on them. If you’re in a Dynasty Owner startup draft and have the opportunity to get one of these guys before the rest of your league because everyone else doesn’t want to draft them “too early” based on ADP, do it and thank me later.
Justin Fields (QB – CHI) – 2 years/$4,717,989; ADP 21.7
I have made the argument that Justin Fields is a first round Dynasty Owner startup draft pick and if so, it means that if you’re picking him in the late second round at his current ADP, you’re getting two first round picks. Imagine grabbing Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910) with the #3 pick because his ADP is 2.9 and then getting Fields with the #22 pick in the second round. That’s two players with two years each left on their rookie contract, and you’ve spent less than $12.5 million of the $157.36 million salary cap. It makes me want the third pick in an upcoming Dynasty Owner startup draft to see if I can pull it off.
After a rough start to the 2022 season with just 38.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his first four games, Fields ripped off 292.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in his final 11 games of the Dynasty Owner season, an average of 26.62 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. If he played 16 games at that pace, he would have been QB5 in 2022 instead of where he finished (QB12). I’m not a fan of those types of projections normally, but it shows Fields’ has the potential to be a top 5 QB in Dynasty Owner. Now that he has a true #1 WR in DJ Moore ($20,628,000) to catch his passes when he’s not taking off from the pocket and running for 6.7 yards per rushing attempt (his career average), the sky could be the limit for Fields.
Time will tell if this prediction is correct, but I’m willing to draft Fields with a first round pick, so you know that I think his ADP is far too low. We’ll see what happens in a couple of weeks.
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) – 3 years/$1,118,858; ADP 36.9
I was listening to Sirius XM Fantasy Sports radio on Monday and heard the hosts express some surprise that Devin Singletary ($2,750,000) isn’t challenging Pierce more for the top RB spot in Houston. It seems to be a common theme as they listed Pierce’s ADP on a bunch of other fantasy football platforms and all of them were higher numbers than his Dynasty Owner ADP. Obviously, Pierce is being drafted earlier in Dynasty Owner than on other fantasy football platforms that don’t utilize real NFL contracts and salaries. The Singletary factor combined with the Texans’ offensive futility last season must be the reasons why Dynasty Owners aren’t drafting Pierce until the end of the third round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts.
Pierce is currently the 15th RB off the board in a Dynasty Owner startup draft, which ranks him as a upper-end RB2 on your Dynasty Owner team. I realize that he finished his rookie season as the RB28 in Dynasty Owner, but he did miss the final four games and averaged 12.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game (166.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 13 games played). He only scored 5 TDs all season (4 rushing and 1 receiving) and the Houston rushing offense only had 7 TDs total. They should be able to improve on that number in 2023 and Pierce will be the primary beneficiary. Pierce may end up being a three-down back for the Texans with Singletary spelling him for a series or two during the course of the game versus last season when Rex Burkhead ($2,350,000) played for the Texans a lot on passing downs.
Rachaad White (RB – TB) – 3 years/$1,282,500; ADP 59.7
I had to pick two RBs here as Rachaad White being drafted almost two full rounds later than Pierce is incredible, especially since how Dynasty Owners are too cold on Pierce. In contrast, White is like Greenland in the winter (average temperature of -8 degrees Celsius/17.8 degrees Fahrenheit on the coast and -20 degrees Celsius/-4 degrees Fahrenheit inland) for Dynasty Owner with his 59.7 ADP and 21st RB taken ranking.
Overall, White was just RB34 in Dynasty Owner last year with 147.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 17 games played (8.66 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). However, starting in Week 10 when he received a career high 22 rushing attempts through Week 17, White scored 92.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. That’s an average of 13.17 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. He had to share touches with Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) last season and Fournette isn’t in Tampa Bay anymore. His “replacements” are Chase Edmonds ($1,232,500) who flamed out in both Miami and Denver last year and Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($1,188,999) who hasn’t played much since being drafted in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft by the Buccaneers.
Because of the downgrade at the position, I see White as the lead RB in Tampa with not a lot of competition for the spot. If White was good enough to take snaps and rushing attempts from Fournette last season when the Buccaneers were trying their best to get to the playoffs in the G.O.A.T. Tom Brady’s final season, he should play a lot for the Buccaneers this season.
Davante Adams (WR – LV) – 4 years/$28,000,000; ADP 43.7
It’s kind of amazing that a player who has finished as the WR4 in 2022, WR2 in 2021 and WR1 in 2020 is being drafted in the middle of the fourth round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts. It’s an overreaction in my mind to the fact that Adams is not playing with Aaron Rodgers ($37,500,000) or his college teammate Derek Carr ($37,500,000) for the first time in his NFL career. That got me to thinking about how well Adams has played when Rodgers has been hurt and after Carr got benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham ($5,000,000) last season.
The answer is very well. In nine games total between the two games last season and back in 2017 when Adams played in seven games without Rodgers, he has 53 receptions for 715 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs. That equates to 160.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (not taking into account bonus points or points lost from fumbling, etc.) in nine games or an average of 17.83 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. That is lower than his averages from the past three seasons of 20.33 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game last year, 21.89 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2021 and 25.53 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in 2020, but not by a lot.
His current projections are WR6 with 292.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, which is right around his non-Rodgers/Carr Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game average if he plays in 16 or 17 games. If Adams and Jimmy Garoppolo ($24,250,000) can produce at that projected level for the 2023 season, he’ll be well worth being on your Dynasty Owner team. Even at $28 million in salary.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) – 1 year/$9,392,000; ADP 56.7
It’s difficult to argue with taking Travis Kelce ($14,312,500) and Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) ahead of Hockenson in Dynasty Owner startup drafts, but having Hockenson basically going at the same time as George Kittle ($15,000,000) and behind Kyle Pitts is puzzling. Hockenson is also going a full round later on average (13.8 draft spots) than Pitts while outproducing Pitts overall last season and on a per game basis in 2021. The extra contract year and $1 million in salary savings isn’t enough for me to take Pitts in front of Hockenson in a Dynasty Owner startup draft.
Compared to Kittle, maybe it’s that Dynasty Owners are “too hot” for Kittle, but I prefer to think that they are “too cold” on Hockenson instead. After all, Hockenson is younger than Kittle (26 years old vs. 29 years old), over $5.6 million less in salary this season and improving his game. Hockenson was TE2 last season and his Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game have gone up from 11.08 in 2020 to 11.94 in 2021 to 12.61 in 2022. In addition, Hockenson averaged even more (12.89 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game) after getting traded from the Lions to the Vikings during the 2022 season. He should only get better with a full off-season and training camp of work with Vikings QB and apparent Quarterback hottie (at least according to my friend Julie) Kirk Cousins ($35,000,000).
The downside for Hockenson is that you may be drafting him for one year only as it’s not clear what his salary will be for 2024 and beyond. However, the drop is free next year since it’ll be a contract change, while Kittle will cost Dynasty Owners an Amnesty Provision at the minimum. The 25% of Kittle’s total remaining salary drop fee will exceed $5 million (the price of an Amnesty Provision) if Dynasty Owners release him either this or next year. If Dynasty Owners find themselves in the fifth round or late in the fourth round and Hockenson is still available, they should happily draft him, make a good push for the League Championship in Year One and worry about 2024 after this season is over.
Players Who Dynasty Owners Are Getting Just Right
This is probably the most difficult set of players to evaluate using this principle. It’s a lot easier to look and say “He’s overrated” or “He’s not getting the recognition he deserves” than hit the middle ground of “He’s ok” correct. In theory, Dynasty Owners have to be selecting at a specific point in a startup draft to get the player “just right”. If someone has an ADP of 48.0, then he’s the final pick of the fourth round. If you have the fifth, sixth or seventh pick, then you need to take him a bit “early” if you get him at your spot in the fourth round (#41, #42 or #43) and if you wait until the fifth round, he’ll probably be gone. As always, Dynasty Owners should probably go “get their guy”, but keep their ADP in mind when going to get them. But there’s no reason to get your guy in Round 2 if no one else wants him until Round 5. Here’s are some players who I’m happy to take at their current ADP and who I think Dynasty Owners are getting just right.
Josh Allen (QB – BUF) – 6 years/$43,005,667; ADP 16.6
At first glance, it may seem odd that I have Patrick Mahomes as being drafted too early and Josh Allen as just right even though the gap between them is only 9.2 draft spots. While that is true, the difference is that Dynasty Owners who draft Mahomes in the first round are getting pretty much the exact same production from him with a virtually identical salary as the Dynasty Owners who draft Allen in the second round. I prefer the draft strategy of taking a low-salary, high-production player in the first round, followed by a high-salary, extremely high production player in the second round over doing it the opposite way around.
In the past three seasons, Allen has finished as QB1 (2020), QB2 (2021) and QB2 (2022). Those are also his overall finishing positions meaning that you are likely getting a top two player in the second round of a startup draft at his current ADP. Yes, he is going to count over one-quarter (27.33%) of this year’s salary cap, but you can’t save all of that money if you want to win. Also, he is almost $2 million less in salary than Mahomes and ranks as the sixth most expensive player in Dynasty Owner. Not a lot of salary, but you’ll want the extra when you’re in the last few rounds of your startup draft or wanting to bid on players to fill out your roster in the Free Agent Auction after the draft is over.
Allen hasn’t gotten his Dynasty Owners below 500.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points since the 2019 season and hasn’t missed a game since the 2018 season either. His average of 31.64 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over the past three seasons is more points some QBs score in a single week for an entire season. The Dynasty Owner scoring system rewards the most important and most expensive players on the football field, aka the QB, more appropriately than “traditional” four points per passing TD scoring systems. If your goal is to mirror being an actual NFL GM, then getting your QB selection correct is the single most important decision you’re going to make and taking Josh Allen in the second round of a Dynasty Owner startup draft does it.
Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) – 3 years/$2,110,395; ADP 19.7
I’m going to ignore the training camp groin injury since he’s reportedly been practicing since last week even if he didn’t play in the Seahawks’ pre-season game this week. Hopefully he’ll get a little pre-season action in the team’s final pre-season game on Saturday against Green Bay. Remember this is Dynasty Owner, not Redraft Owner, so even if Walker was out for a game or two at the start of this year or has a slow start because of his training camp injury, it’s ok.
As a mid-to-late second round Dynasty Owner startup draft pick and the seventh RB off the board, Walker should be a great performer for his Dynasty Owners. While he was just RB19 in Dynasty Owner last season, you have to remember that he didn’t do much in the first quarter (4 games). He had just 15 rushing attempts for 58 rushing yards and 6 receptions for 14 receiving yards (13.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) going into Week 5 last year. In the next 11 games during the Dynasty Owner season, Walker had 184.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (16.73 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game). It was a great performance for effectively three-quarters of the season and once he got rolling, he only had one game, Week 13 against the Rams when he got hurt in the first quarter and didn’t return, in which he didn’t have double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
I realize that many fantasy football analysts and Dynasty Owners are concerned that the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet ($1,719,020) in the second round of the NFL Draft, but I’m not worried at all. Walker played well last season, is still on his rookie deal and NFL teams want more than one quality, starting lineup level RB on their rosters now. Seattle didn’t have another one of those at the end of last season and they struggled in Week 14 when Walker was out with only 10 carries for 28 rushing yards from their RBs. In Week 13 when Walker got hurt in the first quarter, his backup DeeJay Dallas ($947,350) also got hurt and the team was left with Tony Jones ($940,000) as the only healthy RB until he got hurt and Dallas returned to action. Seattle escaped with a 27-23 victory over a decimated 3-8 Rams’ team and I’m sure Pete Carroll doesn’t want that to happen again. When he’s healthy, Walker will produce and get the ball enough to justify using a second round Dynasty Owner startup draft pick on him.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA) – 2 years/$6,771,498; ADP 17.2
In two NFL seasons, Waddle hasn’t missed a game and finished as a top 13 WR both times. He was the WR13 in his rookie season, but only finished 0.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points behind Mike Williams ($20,000,000) for the 12th spot and a WR1 finish. He has averaged 15.45 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game over those two seasons. He has eight games with 20.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points, just two games with 5.0 or fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points and 11 games with 10.0 or fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Basically, he’s as likely to get you a 20 point game as he is to get you less than double digits and that’s a good thing to have in your WR1. You can safely stick him in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup and only take him out on his bye week (Week 10 in 2023 if you’re now planning on drafting him).
His rookie contract still has two more seasons left on it and he’s the 50th most expensive WR on the Dynasty Owner platform right now. The only WRs who scored more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than Waddle did last year for a lower salary were Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701), CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($1,066,313). All three of those guys are being drafted before Waddle on average in Dynasty Owner startup drafts, which is why I think Waddle is being taken at just the right spot.
Some may say that it’s a bit too early as he’s projected to score “only” 249.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, since that would be fewer points than last year and barely more than his rookie season. With a second year under coach Mike McDaniel and with QB Tua Tagovailoa ($7,568,859) and likely backup QB Mike White ($4,000,000) for a couple of games, it’s hard to envision Waddle not improving at least a little bit on his WR9 ranking from last season. That would put him in very close proximity to his draft spot among WRs and with a rookie contract that has more than one year remaining, it’s ok if he’s just a “low-end” WR1 again. As a Patriots fan, I’m not happy having a Dolphins’ player here, but it’s the right move and he’s being drafted just right.
Michael Mayer (TE – LV) – 4 years/$2,328,412; ADP 92.4
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) – 4 years/$2,366,498; ADP 93.6
I’m combining Mayer and LaPorta because they are pretty much joined at the hip so far in their NFL careers. LaPorta was taken by the Detroit Lions with the #34 overall pick, then Mayer was taken with the #35 pick by the Las Vegas Raiders. Both are expected to be instant contributors to their NFL team and get to play with veteran QBs in Jared Goff ($33,500,000) and Jimmy Garoppolo. Neither of their teams had an established player already at TE, unlike Dalton Kincaid ($3,356,756) who was drafted by the Bills who already had Dawson Knox ($13,000,000) on their roster. Finally, both of them are listed as second on their team’s current depth chart. Mayer is listed behind Austin Hooper ($2,750,000) on the Raiders depth chart, while LaPorta follows Brock Wright ($940,000) on the Lions depth chart. I wouldn’t take those at face value though.
The differences are slight which is why I’m ok with both of them having virtually the same ADP. Mayer had better college production overall and last season than LaPorta. However, LaPorta went to Iowa, which has produced several great NFL TEs in the past few seasons, such as George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson plus Noah Fant ($6,850,000) who was a first round NFL Draft selection, but hasn’t panned out as well as Kittle and Hockenson. LaPorta joined a team with a better offense and who’s QB has been in the offense for a couple of seasons. It remains to be seen if that matters, but a slight advantage to LaPorta on that metric.
I like that both of them are being drafted as low-end TE1 right now in the ninth and tenth spots among TEs in Dynasty Owner startup drafts. That shows me Dynasty Owners aren’t relying on them to produce instantly this season as it’s difficult for rookie TEs to do so. Hopefully the Dynasty Owners with Mayer and LaPorta are getting a solid veteran who maybe has a higher salary later on to pair with them. Regardless of whether you get LaPorta or Mayer, if they are your mid-to-late seventh or very early eighth round Dynasty Owner startup draft pick, it’s just right.
Conclusion
Who does everyone agree with on my Too Hot, Too Cold and Just Right lists? Is there anybody who I’m wrong about or got absolutely positively correct? Let me and the entire Dynasty Owner community know by tweeting/posting on Twitter/X and tagging me (@SteveVT33) and Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner). You can also comment on both Facebook or Instagram with what I got right or wrong.
You can also put in players who you think are being drafted too soon, too late or at just the right time based on their current ADP who aren’t listed here. There were a total of 14 players in this article and I’m sure I missed somebody who other Dynasty Owners think should have been included.
If reading this article makes you want to draft a Dynasty Owner startup draft, then join one before the NFL season start. Go to your D.O. Store, click on New Team for 2023, and find a time when you can draft in the future. You can also Create A League for a specific day and time, then invite friends who you want to play in a Dynasty Owner league or just make it a public league. If any of those friends are new to Dynasty Owner, give them your affiliate code and get a $49 referral fee. Don’t forget to give everyone the most recent promo code (LETSGO) for $20 off a new team. Use that code yourself as well for $20 off your league fee.
While you’re waiting for your next startup draft, you need to listen to the Dynasty Owner podcast with me and Jay Pounds this week. We will be joined by our past two Chase for the Ring Champions – 2021 winner SKOL Vikings, aka Jeff Rachlin and 2022 winner Dynasty|Trade|School (D|T|S), aka Rudolph Valentine. They will be helping both new and existing Dynasty Owners with how to draft and put together a winning Dynasty Owner roster.
Dynasty Owner also has plenty of other content to help you out. Matt Morrison – The Jerk is on the Trade Time beat now and evaluating real Dynasty Owner trades by running them through the Trade Calculator to show Dynasty Owners how to use it to their advantage or just get trade discussions started. Jay will be starting up his weekly look at the best players available in the Free Agent Auction and producing new content for Facebook and Instagram to go with it starting Week 1 of the Dynasty Owner season. You don’t want to miss it!
Finally, don’t forget about the weekly Livestream with me and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer. We’ve been off for a couple of weeks in August, but will be back this Friday. The Livestream is usually on at 11 AM, but check to make sure of the time, go back and watch previous episodes on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter/X. Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner