By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello Dynasty Owners. Thank you for taking the time to read, and thank you for supporting Dynasty Owner in general. If you caught my article and video last week, you know that I recapped all of my AFC Contract Breakdown articles. The article was a little longer than usual due to the amount of information that I wanted to fit. Well, today is going to be the same as I’m going to recap all the contract breakdowns I did for NFC teams throughout the year. Let’s go in the same order that we did for the AFC recap. That means we are going to start with the NFC East.
Contract Breakdown Recap
I just finished the NFC East articles this past month so they should all be fresh in your mind. The first team I wrote about was the Dallas Cowboys. In the Cowboys article, I did a breakdown on Michael Gallup. Gallup continues to be undervalued heading into the regular season. With a single year left on his very cheap contract ($880,995), he is a prime player I would target as a Bench wide receiver.
For the Giants article, I compared all four of their top wide receivers. They are Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shephard and Darius Slayton. The main takeaway from this comparison was to show that I value Kenny Golladay as a top wide receiver, even with his expensive contract. No, he will not be the biggest value in Dynasty Owner this year, but he will be a productive starting wide receiver. It’s also worth noting that I ranked Toney last for the 2021 season, but he jumps up to second when we look at a three year window. I don’t expect Toney to make a big impact this year, but I’m hopeful for more production in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
Jalen Reagor was compared to DeVonta Smith in my Eagles article. More specifically, I compared their ADPs. Here are their ADPs from August 15th…
That is too big of a gap for a single year difference in contract. Yes, Smith is the shiny new weapon, but Reagor has had an extra season to become comfortable in this offense. Here are their current ADPs…
There was really no change at all. Reagor continues to be a value and is being widely disrespected coming into 2021.
Finally, I wrote about the Washington Football Team just two weeks ago. In the Football Team article, I talked about one of my favorite players this season. I have been targeting him in every Dynasty Owner league as well as every redraft and keeper league that I’m involved in. That player is Antonio Gibson. Gibson is projected to have league winning value. League winning value happens when a player is on a cheap contract ($1,233,159) and is projected to be a top tier player (RB12). He is a later drafted running back who could truly finish as the RB1.
In the Vikings article, I did a mini breakdown on all four positions, but the one I want to mention is tight end. In the tight end breakdown, I talked about the upside of Irv Smith Jr. I wrote…
“Smith Jr. has two more years on his rookie contract. That deal is worth $1,449,609 per year. He will be the third or fourth receiving option on a low volume passing team, but his age (22) and salary should give you some peace of mind when drafting him. Don’t expect him to catapult to a Top 5 tight end in terms of fantasy points. I do think it’s possible he jumps to become a Top 5 tight end in terms of value though.”
Well, a lot of what I stated is a moot point now as Irv Smith Jr. is going to miss significant time with a knee injury. He will miss the entire 2021 fantasy season. It looks like I will have to push my optimism for him off for another year.
When I wrote about David Montgomery in the Bears article, I pinned him as a high value running back. Here is who I compared him to…
Monty will receive a great deal of volume this season even if it won’t be as much receiving work as we’d like to see. Regardless, he will be a Top 10 value for running backs barring an injury.
The main takeaway from the Lions article was how efficient D’Andre Swift was last season. After all, Dynasty Owner is about finding efficiency. Swift was the third most efficient running back last season in terms of fantasy points per opportunity. There is no doubt that efficiency almost always decreases as usage increases. Even with a slight decrease in efficiency, Swift will still be a top running back value when you take his salary ($2,134,728) into account.
Robert Tonyan finished as the TE5 last year. This was a very impressive season for him and Green Bay, but in my Packers article, I gave some reason for pause. When I hear “TE5 finish”, I get excited as most people probably do. The problem with this is the massive difference between TE5 and TE2. It’s also disappointing to see the difference between TE5 and TE20. Here is an excerpt from my Packers’ article that breaks it down…
“That TE5 finish is a little deceiving due to the fact that Tonyan (TE5) produced 138.2 points less than Kelce (TE1). Tonyan also produced over 100 points less than D. Waller (TE2). The point I’m trying to make (and that I’ve made before) is that after the top tier tight ends, point differences between players become more negligible.”
“The difference between TE5 and TE20 is only 60.2 points. Now, I’m not saying that these points aren’t appreciated or valuable because they are. What I’m saying is that if you can for sure draft the TE5 for the 2021 season, you may not be returning much draft equity value based on how late you can draft the TE20.”
Tonyan is a fine tight end to draft or own, especially if you get him for cheap, but I would not feel confident holding him as my number one tight end throughout the season.
In the Falcons article, I broke down Hayden Hurst and Matt Ryan’s contracts. The acquisition of Kyle Pitts throws a lot of uncertainty on Hurst’s situation. Instead of talking about either of them, let me share an interesting statistic with you. I noted that the Falcons’ offense was not the problem with their inability to win games. The Falcons actually outscored the Bears, Rams and Football Team in 2020. All three of them made the playoffs. It was actually the team’s defense and inability to win close games that caused their 4-12 record. The Falcons were involved in ten one score games. They lost eight of those ten games. Take what you will from that statistic.
The Buccaneers article centered around deciding how to handle the running back committee in Tampa Bay. To summarize the breakdown, I would say that both players will obviously hamper the other’s fantasy production. I wouldn’t want either to be one of my top two running backs, but I would be comfortable with either as my FLEX or Bench running back.
I wrote about Christian McCaffrey (CMC) in my Panthers article. There really isn’t much more I can say about McCaffrey that you haven’t heard already. He is the best fantasy producer in football and his 2019 and 2020 16 game average pace proves that…
|Rush Att||Rush Yds||Rec||Rec Yards||TDs||FP|
While I don’t think he will reach 480 fantasy points this year, I also didn’t expect him to pace out for that in the past two years. CMC is a running back and wide receiver rolled into one position. Congratulations if you are able to roster him.
In the Saints article, I mainly wrote about the upcoming NFL news as this was written prior to free agency opening or the NFL Draft. With that news behind us, there is no reason to talk about it. Instead, I can mention Emmanuel Sanders who was released by the Saints two weeks after I wrote my initial article. He was added to Buffalo’s wide receiving core as an ancillary piece. Sanders is 34 years old and is the WR3 (at best) for the Bills coming into the start of the season. He’s probably worth a roster spot for $6,000,000, but I don’t see him as much more than a Bench wide receiver.
I started this entire Contract Breakdown series by talking about the NFC West. Let’s wrap it up with them now.
In the Cardinals article, Kyler Murray was featured. I put together a list of a few of the top producing quarterbacks and compared them using their 2021 salary and 2022 projected salaries. Here is the list…
|Player||2021 Salary||2022 Projected Salary||2021 Proj DD/FP||2022 Proj DD/FP|
The point of this list was to show how valuable Murray currently is, and how much more valuable he will become over the next year. As I mentioned in last week’s article, I would prefer only Justin Herbert to Kyler Murray.
In the Rams article, I broke down Robert Woods and Jared Goff’s contracts. At the time of the article, Goff was still on the Rams. Regardless of his NFL team, Goff is currently on an awful contract, at least for Dynasty Owner, and it would be very tough for any Owner to compete for a title with his salary on the books.
In the 49ers article, I did a blind comparison of Brandon Aiyuk and D.J. Moore. The end result was me going for D.J. Moore, but it was a lot closer than I thought it would have been. Aiyuk was on a tear last year and should continue that run into 2021 even with George Kittle returning. Here is the comparison…
(This is a full 16 game season based on per game averages in 2020)
Finally, we have the Seahawks article, where I compared Tyler Lockett against himself. That’s right, Lockett had a very Jekyll and Hyde type of season.
|Lockett 1st Half||106||1,230||14||325.4|
|Lockett 2nd Half||94||878||6||215.8|
(This is a full 16 game season based on per game averages in 2020)
Lockett excelled in the first half of the season, and while he was still good in the second half, it was nothing close to the first. I then proposed this question: “What if his first half had the worse stats while the second half had the better stats?” The answer is clear for me. He would be ranked much higher coming into 2021. It makes sense. It’s human nature to put more weight on what we have seen more recently. My point is this though…we know that Lockett can be dominant. We saw it in the first half, and I truly believe that his second half numbers are his absolute floor this season. Continue to roster Lockett confidently. I find myself acquiring him in almost every mock draft and redraft league that I’m in.
Thank you for reading, and look out for my video that pairs with this article. The NFL regular season starts this week. I can’t wait to come to you next week with actual NFL stat analysis. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.