By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
It’s a little early in December, but the holiday season (Christmas, Hannukah, and Kwanzaa) is right around the corner and that means gifts. I’m expecting a lot of packages to arrive on my doorstep over the next couple of weeks and frankly, it’s already started. In honor of the holiday season, we can think about all of the players who have been gifts for their NFL and your Dynasty Owner team this season.
There’s no set definition for these gifts, but I’ll give at least one at each position for you and mix it up as I can. Without further ado, here they are:
- Geno Smith (SEA – QB – $3,500,000): For Seahawks’ fans, they got a gift when coach Pete Carroll chose Smith as his starting QB instead of Drew Lock ($1,752,704). For Dynasty Owner, they got QB6 for a late round startup draft pick (ADP 246.3) or potentially $1 million Dynasty Dollar bid in the Free Agent Auction at some point either last year, during the off-season or maybe even earlier this season.
- Josh Jacobs (LV – RB – $2,983,350): That performance last week of 57.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was a gift for his Dynasty Owners. It was capped by an 86-yard TD run in overtime that was a gift for Raiders’ coach Josh McDaniels and his job security in Vegas.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (NE – RB – $1,057,264): The true gift for Dynasty Owners is Stevenson has played so well and fellow Patriots RB Damien Harris ($907,784) has been injured enough at times this season to prevent Bill Belichick from making the Patriots’ backfield a dreaded Running Back by Committee (RBBC). Stevenson has also scored double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 10 straight games with six of them in excess of 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
- Travis Kelce (KC – TE – $14,312,500): Almost 100.0 more Dynasty Owner fantasy points than any other TE from Kelce. He and Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) are so close in salary and startup draft ADP (31.6 for Andrews and 31.8 for Kelce). If another Dynasty Owner took Andrews before Kelce and you got Kelce, you owe that person a gift and maybe part of your prize money in cash prize pool leagues.
- Christian Kirk (JAC – WR – $18,000,000): As WR10 for the season, Kirk is the overpriced gift that you’re not happy with when you open it, then end up wearing or using all year.
- Tyler Lockett (SEA – WR – $17,250,000): Same as Kirk, but with the added bonus of consistency this season since he’s scored double-digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in nine out of 11 games. He’s an upgrade over your old TV, iPhone or other electronic device with a new feature that you end up using and loving.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC – QB – $45,000,000): Mahomes is the top scoring player in Dynasty Owner with 378.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (34.4 points per game). I imagine it’s like finding a brand new sports car or tricked out truck with a bow on it as your gift in the driveway (as seen on TV, but never in real-life). So expensive, but totally worth it.
If there’s a player who has been a gift to your Dynasty Owner team, let me know on Twitter (@SteveVT33). Think of it as the gift you buy for your grandmother or an aunt who always buys you a gift. You don’t really want to, but it makes them so happy that you have to do it.
For the purposes of this article, all statistics, ADP and Dynasty Owner roster percentages were current as of the morning of December 3rd.
These Guys Should be Starters This Week
First, we’ll check on how my Week 12 recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok). These four players were the ones that I predicted would have Dynasty Owner Starting lineup worthy performances in Week 12.
QB: Marcus Mariota (ATL – $9,375,000) – 16.6 (Bad recommendation)
RB: Rachaad White (TB – $1,282,500) – 19.9 (Good recommendation)
WR: Alec Pierce (IND – $1,650,336) – 0.0 (Bad recommendation)
TE: Dawson Knox (BUF – $880,400) – 3.7 (Bad recommendation)
For the second straight week and the third time in four weeks, I had one Good recommendation and three Bad ones. It’s getting to be my usual to have only one Good and at least two Bad recommendations per week and as a result, my overall recommendations record didn’t change much. It’s now 31% Good, 56% Bad and 10% Just Ok. On the positive side, my streak of having one or more Good recommendations has been extended to nine weeks in a row.
Let’s start with the Good recommendation. Rachaad White had 19.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (64 rushing yards, 9 receptions, 45 receiving yards). It was a career high in receptions for White with Leonard Fournette ($7,000,000) out of the Tampa Bay lineup. Marcus Mariota was a low-end Bench QB with 16.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points so that recommendation was Bad. Dawson Knox only had 3.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Alec Pierce had a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) which means both of those recommendations were Bad. Zay Jones ($8,000,000) was my hedge and would have been a far better choice at WR and a Good recommendation as he had 27.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (11 receptions, 145 receiving yards). On the other hand, Tre’ McKitty ($11,96,463) was another hedge and had a Blutarsky just like Pierce so that hedge wouldn’t have changed the results.
Another week, another solo Good recommendation, but these recommendations should be better. Hopefully these players who I think should be in your Week 13 Dynasty Owner Starting lineup will give me an early holiday gift and get enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to actually be worthy of a spot.
Jared Goff (DET – $33,500,000): On Thanksgiving against Buffalo, Jared Goff had 24.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with 240 passing yards and 2 TDs. He also had his third straight game without an interception after throwing seven in the first eight games of the season. This week, he gets to face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing 248.1 passing yards per game (eighth most in the NFL). They have only 1 INT total in the past three games. Both of those things work in Goff’s favor this week, so even though he only has four games with more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, I think he can do it again. If he does get more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points this week, consider it the gift of a low-end QB for your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup.
Kyren Williams (LAR – $992,601): In his first three games since returning from a high ankle sprain he suffered way back in Week 1, Williams has seen his snap share increase from 27% in Week 10 to 55% in Week 11 to 70% in Week 12. His touches have also increased from 4 in Week 10 up to 14 in Week 12. The results have been mediocre at best with a total of 21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (80 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 63 receiving yards). That’s an average of only 7.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. However, in a Rams’ offense being led by QB Bryce Perkins ($742,500) and without WRs Cooper Kupp ($15,750,000) and Allen Robinson ($15,500,000), somebody has to step up on offense for the 3-8 defending Super Bowl Champions.
Williams is as good of an option as anyone with their Week 13 opponent, the Seattle Seahawks, allowing an average of 116.6 rushing yards, 6.2 receptions and 54.3 receiving yards per game to RBs. That would be 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and if Williams can get barely over half of those points, it would be 12.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. A TD would be an extra gift if he got one. The Seahawks gave up 303 yards to Josh Jacobs last week and over 100 yards rushing to Rachaad White in Week 10 before their bye, so they are in the giving mood this holiday season. I like Williams’ chances to lead the Rams’ offense this week and think he should be in your Starting lineup.
Drake London (ATL – $5,383,617): London is the Falcons’ leading receiver, but even so he’s only WR45 for the 2022 season because of how run-heavy the Falcons’ offense has been. They run the ball 56.3% of the time, which ranks second in the NFL behind only the Bears at 59.2%. So why in the world is London in this spot if the Falcons run the ball a majority of the time?
It’s definitely not volume as he’s only caught more than 5 passes once all season and that was way back in Week 2 when he had 8 receptions versus the Rams. As usual, it goes back to their opponent. In this case, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers who have the third worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing 263.7 yards passing per game. They let both Michael Pittman ($2,153,212) and Jelani Woods ($1,343,118) have big games on Monday Night Football with 19.1 and 16.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points respectively. Without a lot of other reliable options at WR, I expect Falcons’ QB Marcus Mariota to target London frequently when he drops back to pass and London to respond with his best game since Week 2 when he had those 8 receptions and 24.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Dynasty Owners who drafted London early this season (rookie draft ADP of 3.4 and startup draft ADP of 49.8) should get London into their Starting lineups.
Brock Wright (DET – $825,000): Arizona is on bye and Seattle plays the Los Angeles Rams who have TE14 Tyler Higbee ($7,250,000) so my top two opponent choices for Starting lineup TEs are out of the picture. My strategy is to find the team that has let up the most TD to TEs this season who isn’t facing a top 15 TE (because TE6 to TE15 are so close and three top TEs are out with injuries) and take that team’s best TE. This is like spinning a roulette wheel, but here goes.
And the winner is: Brock Wright! You already knew that, but it seemed suspenseful, didn’t it?
This obviously isn’t a volume play as Wright has only 7 targets in four games since Detroit traded away T.J. Hockenson ($4,955,306) to Minnesota. Even though Jacksonville has only allowed 4 TDs by TEs, they are ranked in the middle of the pack and were the best option of the teams in that range.
I’ll predict that Wright barely gets there with something around 3 receptions for 18 yards and a TD (10.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) for his third ever game with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. His first was back last year in Week 13 against Minnesota, so I’ll take the chance that he can do it again in Week 13 this year and recommend getting Wright into your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup. If you don’t have one of the top 3 TEs in Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or T.J. Hockenson, it’s as good of an option as anyone else. Kind of like getting scratch tickets as a gift, you might win $1 or $20, but for no draft capital and only $825,000 in salary, any Dynasty Owner fantasy points you get from Wright should be considered a gift.
These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week
Now it’s time to look at how my Week 12 Bench recommendations worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok). My gift to you has been being up front about how I’ve been better at making Bench recommendations than Starting lineup recommendations this season.
QB: Aaron Rodgers (GB – $33,500,000) – 12.9 (Good recommendation)
RB: Nick Chubb (CLE – $12,200,000) – 25.2 (Bad recommendation)
WR: D.J. Moore (CAR – $20,628,000) – 20.3 (Bad recommendation)
TE: Cole Kmet (CHI – $1,894,444) – 4.7 (Good recommendation)
Both of my Good recommendations were early holiday gifts. Rodgers keeps on giving by saying ridiculous things and playing mediocre at best. The fact that he thought he could play last week was a gift for me and an easy Good recommendation when he reinjured himself and finished as one of the worst QBs of the week with only 12.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Cole Kmet moved into the top 12 TEs with just two great games and without Justin Fields ($4,717,989) was highly unlikely to replicate. To be able to recommend him for your Bench was another early holiday gift for me in the form of a Good recommendation. The fact that I picked Nick Chubb and D.J. Moore and both of them played so well was a holiday gift for Tim Peffer with the bonus of a Browns’ win in overtime over the Buccaneers to go with it.
With two Good and two Bad recommendations, my overall Bench record improved very little and is now 42% Good, 50% Bad and 8% Just Ok. It’s still better than my Starting lineup recommendations. All I want this holiday season is four Good Bench recommendations. That and Peace on Earth. I’m not asking for too much.
Lamar Jackson (BAL – $23,016,000): After last week, I probably should put “no one” here and move on, but that’s not in the spirit of these recommendations so I’ll make a pick and go with Lamar Jackson. This choice is a combination of a couple of factors. First, Jackson’s play has taken a nosedive since the first three weeks of the season. He’s still QB5 but it’s all built on those first three weeks in which he averaged 43.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In his last eight games, he’s averaging only 19.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game. In starker terms, he has scored 283.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the season with 131.7 of them in the first three games and 152.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the last eight games. Part of the reason for his poor recent play is a lack of quality WRs for him to throw the ball. The Ravens’ WRs only have 82 receptions for the entire season for 1,090 yards and 6 TDs. Stefon Diggs ($14,400,000) has more of each of those stats by himself (91 receptions, 1,202 receiving yards, 10 TDs). Finally, the Ravens have to play against Denver and the Denver defense has only allowed 9 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD by QBs all season. They allow just 184.7 passing yards and 17.6 points per game. It’s going to be difficult for Jackson to get into the end zone. His rushing floor (average of 68.6 rushing yards per game) will likely keep him from having a truly awful game, but I think he’ll be held to less than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points, as has happened six times already this season. That’s not enough to make him worth putting in your Starting lineup.
Travis Etienne (JAC – $3,224,526): Etienne is questionable for the Jaguars’ Week 13 game against the Detroit Lions after only two carries for 3 yards (0.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) last week. He’s practiced in limited fashion all week, but is expected to be “good to go”. Even if he’s healthy enough to play, I would worry about how much he plays. After all, Jacksonville is 4-7 and highly unlikely to make the playoffs. Playing other RBs, like newly acquired Darrell Henderson ($1,053,001), would seem to be a good idea for a non-playoff team. Etienne is the shiny new toy you got when you were a kid that broke almost immediately then you forgot that you had it. It got fixed, but then you didn’t play with it again for a few months and when you did, you almost broke it again and then were more cautious playing with it in the future.
Before Week 12, Etienne played 50 or more snaps in each of the past four Jaguars’ games. He played about 80% of the snaps overall (220 out of 276 snaps) and in each individual game. That seems like a lot of work for a player who missed the entire 2021 season with a Lisfranc injury. The Week 12 injury was a sprain of the same foot he injured last year. The Jaguars are likely to exercise caution with Etienne this week and for the rest of the season. That should mean fewer snaps, fewer touches and fewer Dynasty Owner fantasy points for the RB19 on the season. To be safe, I’m recommending that Dynasty Owners keep Etienne on their Bench this week.
Michael Pittman (IND – $2,153,212): Dallas cornerback Stefon Diggs has shadowed his opponent’s best WR in Weeks 10 and 11 and done an excellent job of shutting them down. I guess there was no “best” Giants’ WR which is why he didn’t do it last week. In Week 10, he held Allen Lazard ($3,986,000) to just 7.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions for 45 yards). He was even better in Week 11 as it was Justin Jefferson ($3,280,701) who he shadowed, and Jefferson only had 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (3 receptions for 33 yards). A shutdown corner is the gift that every NFL defensive coordinator probably asks for every holiday season.
Pittman is clearly the best WR on the Colts and ranked WR14 for the season with 155.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He gets his points on volume with an average of 9.4 targets per game, not yards per catch (10.0 average) or TDs (only 2 TDs for the season). If Diggs is Pittman’s shadow and prevents him from getting open, then Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) won’t throw him the ball. This seems likely and because of that, I’m going with Pittman as my Bench WR recommendation.
Taysom Hill (NO – $10,000,000): Hill is still TE8 for the season, so if you go strictly by the season-long rankings, he should be in your Dynasty Owner Starting lineup. He’s only really been worth starting three times, especially his 39.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point game in Week 5 versus Seattle, but that’s similar to other TEs in the TE6 to TE15 range. Cole Kmet is TE12 but only has two games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Hayden Hurst ($3,500,000) is one spot behind Hill at TE9 and has only four games with over 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.
The Saints play Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football this week. Tampa is a better than average defense at stopping the run. Two weeks ago, they held Seattle to only 39 yards rushing. Since Hill gets almost three-quarters of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points (72.9 out of 99.4) running the ball, I’m thinking the Saints don’t utilize his rushing ability much and if they do, he won’t be very effective.
The fact that the TE6 to TE15 are less likely than not to have a Starting lineup worthy performance probably explains why recommending Bench TEs is one of my best position recommendations. So far this season, I’ve had 6 Good recommendations and 1 Just Ok recommendation. I’m going to go with Hill this week as my Bench TE recommendation this week and expect to improve my record as a result.
Conclusion
Hopefully these recommendations are my holiday gift to you. If you make a lineup decision based on them and win your Dynasty Owner match-up this week, please consider sending me a small gift, or donating in my name to charity. If you take one of these recommendations and lose your Dynasty Owner match-up, then it was a gift for your opponent.
Great Dynasty Owner content and the best platform and game in all of fantasy football is Dynasty Owner’s gift to all of our Dynasty Owners. There are plenty of gifts every week and like Hannukah, you got at least one every day this week (Sunday counts since it’s game day). Hannukah is eight days long and if you waited to read an article, listen to the podcast or watch the Livestream, then you can stretch out a week’s content to eight days.
We have articles from me, Jay Pounds and Matt Morrison – The Jerk to help you evaluate players and whether you pick them up off the Free Agent Auction, should have them in your Starting lineup or keep them on your Bench. Jay and I also do the Dynasty Owner podcast which you can listen to every week starting on Friday morning.
We also have our mid-week lunchtime gift to our Dynasty Owners in the form of the Dynasty Owner Livestream. It’s on live at 12:30 PM (Eastern) on Wednesday. You can watch it on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel and if you can’t watch it live, then go there when you can and watch it. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter as well. Thanks for reading and have a great day!
Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner
Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner
