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By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)
With the start of the new NFL and Dynasty Owner league year only a week away (or less if you aren’t reading this on Friday), we still have time to continue looking at how Dynasty Owners drafted in 2020. Using the data from the 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts from all leagues, we have looked at several measures already to help Dynasty Owners in a 2021 start-up draft think ahead to their Draft Day. The first article (https://dynastyowner.com/2021/02/how-to-draft-a-dynasty-owner-championship-team-part-i/) analyzed data on three measures that didn’t involve individual players, positions or salaries (type of league, when to draft and what draft position to get in your start-up draft). In the second article (https://dynastyowner.com/2021/03/how-to-draft-a-dynasty-owner-championship-team-part-ii/), the data showed that Dynasty Owners who picked a player with a lower salary in the first round were more likely to win their League title than those who drafted higher salary players. Teams who drafted players with salaries under $5 million more likely to overcome having a player miss a significant portion of the season or not play as well as projected than teams who drafted a player in the upper salary ranges.
With this information, we can start to look at the individual players who were the best ones to draft in 2020. This will give Dynasty Owners insight into who they should be considering taking in their 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up draft. Due to new salaries, it may not be the same players this year, but a player with a similar profile as those who led their Dynasty Owners teams in 2020. The three major questions that we are going to answer this week are:
- What players were the “best” first round draft pick?
- Which players were drafted by the most Dynasty Owner league winners?
- Which players were drafted by the fewest Dynasty Owner league winners?
All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.
All salaries and ADPs listed are from the 2020 Dynasty Owner season. Updated 2021 salaries will be posted on the Dynasty Owner website at the start of the new NFL league year on March 18th.
What Players Were the “Best” First Round Draft Pick?
Your first round Dynasty Owner draft pick is an important commodity. You only get one first round pick and there are only so many players worthy of using that pick on. In fact, there were only a total of 36 players drafted in the first round of a 2020 Dynasty Owner draft. Just 20 of them were drafted by a League Champion and 16 were drafted by multiple League Champions. This is obviously a select group of players that we are discussing here.
Even more select are the “best” first round draft picks. Based on looking at the percentage of Dynasty Owner leagues in which the player was selected in the first round and the team won the League Championship, we find five players who were head and shoulders above the rest in 2020.
| #1 Pick | % of Winners | % of Top 25 | % of Top 10 |
| Alvin Kamara | 18% | 32% | 40% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 12% | 20% | 30% |
| Lamar Jackson | 8% | 16% | 10% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| Kyler Murray | 8% | 4% | 0% |
With the findings from the last article that showed drafting a low salary first gave teams a better chance to win, it should come as no surprise that Alvin Kamara (and his $964,443 salary) was the “best” player to draft in the first round in 2020. There were a few other players who earned less than $1 million and were selected a few times in the first round in 2020 (Aaron Jones, George Kittle and Chris Godwin), but none of the teams who drafted those three players in the first round won their League.
Kamara was also the player to draft if you wanted your best shot of making the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring as 8 out of the people who finished in the Top 25 drafted him. This includes our second-place finisher (Quaranteed for Greatness), but not the Ring winner himself as Barbee Kilgore drafted Patrick Mahomes with his first pick since Kamara had already been drafted. Mahomes was the second “best” player to draft in the first round, but pretty far behind Kamara. Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Kyler Murray round out the top five “best” number one draft pick list.
Which Players Were Drafted by the Most Dynasty Owner League Winners?
Alvin Kamara may have been the “best” first round selection in the 2020 Dynasty Owner drafts, but there are 25 rounds in a Dynasty Owner draft. Dynasty Owners can’t just grab the best low salary player in the first round of their 2021 draft, then log off and auto draft the rest of their team. Your team is going to need a full set of Starters, Bench players and a deep Practice Squad if it’s going to win a League Championship and contend in the Chase for the Ring. One player won’t win it on his own.
Overall, a total of 590 players were drafted by a Dynasty Owner team in 2020 with 411 of them being drafted by at least one League Championship team. The players run the entire alphabet from A-Z (A.J. Dillon to Zay Jones, except for the letter U as there were no drafted players whose first name starts with a U) and from the G.O.A.T., 7-time Super Bowl Champion QB (Tom Brady) to the most obscure players drafted late in a single league (QB J’Mar Smith – #298, RB Cameron Scarlett – #299, WR (D.J. Montgomery – #292 TE Sean McKeon – #296 and K Dominik Eberle – #263). Not all players are created equal though.
In a 12-team Dynasty Owner league, any player, on average, has a 8.33% chance of being drafted by a League Champion. Some players will be on more League Champion teams, while others will be on fewer. There are a number of factors that can influence the number of Championship teams that a player can be on. The first factor is obvious, it’s the number of leagues that the player was drafted in. In order to take this factor out of the equation, we are going to look at the percentage of leagues in which a player was drafted by the League Champion. However, we have to have some criteria for the number of leagues that a player was drafted in, otherwise the players drafted by the highest percentage of League Champions would be Blaine Gabbert, Chandler Cantanzaro, Devin Ross, Logan Woodside and Olamide Zaccheaus. Not exactly a Pro Bowl caliber list, but it is true that every team that drafted them won their League Championship. However, it is also true that each one of them were only drafted in one Dynasty Owner league in 2020 as well.
To make sure that we are only looking at the top players, we will limit our list to only those drafted in 50% or more of Dynasty Owner leagues in 2020. That eliminates the five players listed above plus others who were not drafted in many leagues but still managed to get selected by a handful of League Champions. When we break it down, we see that there are a dozen players who were drafted in more than half of Dynasty Owner leagues in 2020 and were drafted by twice as many League Champions as the average (16.7%). The dozen only includes one name from our list of “best” first round picks (Alvin Kamara), but is still filled with a bunch of quality players.
| Player | % of League Champions | % of Leagues Drafted |
| Jonnu Smith | 21.1% | 100% |
| Alvin Kamara | 20.0% | 100% |
| Travis Kelce | 20.0% | 100% |
| Stefon Diggs | 19.1% | 99% |
| Malcolm Brown | 19.0% | 83% |
| Josh Allen | 18.9% | 100% |
| Robert Woods | 17.9% | 100% |
| Calvin Ridley | 16.8% | 100% |
| Darren Waller | 16.8% | 100% |
| Derrick Henry | 16.8% | 100% |
| Duke Johnson | 16.8% | 100% |
| Mike Evans | 16.8% | 100% |
What stands out is that only one QB (Josh Allen) appears on this list. Allen was far and away the top QB to have in Dynasty Owner in 2020 as he was drafted by 18.9% of League winners. The next highest rated QB was Mitchell Trubisky who was drafted in three-quarters (74%) of leagues and by League winners 12.9% of the time. Other top QBs from 2020 were either drafted by slightly more League Champions (Patrick Mahomes at 11.6%), on par with the average (Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson at 8.4%) or even less than average (Aaron Rodgers at 6.1% and Russell Wilson at 5.3%).
Three TEs grace the list, led by Jonnu Smith and his $776,572 salary, and including the top two TEs in Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 (Travis Kelce with 314.8 and Darren Waller with 282.6). Kelce and Waller outscored every other TE, including Smith, by over 100 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The team that beat me in my beta league Championship game (VIP Club Dub) had both Smith and Kelce. No wonder I lost!
Not surprisingly, Kamara is right there as second most drafted, behind only Jonnu Smith. Another RB trio of running backs (Malcolm Brown, Derrick Henry and Duke Johnson) also helped many of their Dynasty Owners to a League title. Not a lot in common with those guys besides all being RBs.
Finally, we have four WRs on this list, including two (Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans) who had salaries over $10 million and two who made less than that (Robert Woods and Calvin Ridley). All four of them were among the leaders in Dynasty Owner fantasy points among WRs. The appearance of Evans (ADP 58.1) and Diggs (ADP 102.3) show that high salary WRs can help your Dynasty Owner team to victory, but they should be drafted outside of the first round so that you aren’t bogged down with a big salary should they get injured or not produce at a high level.
Which Players Were Drafted by the Fewest Dynasty Owner League Winners?
The good news is that there were no players who completely tanked their Dynasty Owner teams. While many players were not drafted by any League Champions, most of them were only drafted by one or two teams, so they didn’t have too many opportunities. The two players who were drafted by the most Dynasty Owner teams, but no winners were two low salary players, J.J. Taylor (RB – NE) and Riley Ridley (WR – CHI). Both were drafted in more than one-quarter of leagues, but by zero League Champions. The most prominent players who were not drafted by any winners were a pair of WRs with multiple year contracts and salaries approaching $10 million per year (Cole Beasley – $7.25 million and Randall Cobb – $9 million).
However, the “award” for the worst player to draft in Dynasty Owner in 2020 has to go to Philadelphia WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside was drafted in every single Dynasty Owner league, probably due to his $1.236 million salary, but was only drafted by two League winners. Royce Freeman of the Denver Broncos was also only drafted by two League winners, but he was drafted in 91% of leagues so Arcega-Whiteside had more opportunities than Freeman.
There were a few other bigger name pass catchers who were only drafted by three League winners – George Kittle, Zach Ertz and Michael Thomas. All three of them missed significant time in 2020 and were high draft picks (Thomas – ADP 14.1; Kittle – ADP 27.9; Ertz – ADP 73.5).
Conclusion
We are only a week away from the official start of the 2021 NFL and Dynasty Owner league year. With the salary cap number for the NFL ($182.5 million) and Dynasty Owner ($127.75 million) revealed earlier in the week, it’s time to start looking forward to getting ready for the 2021 Dynasty Owner season. Don’t forget what we’ve learned by analyzing 2020 Dynasty Owner draft data when getting yourself ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner draft. Drafting well is critical to success in fantasy football in general, and Dynasty Owner in particular. As we’ve seen, there is some wisdom to taking a low salary player with your first-round pick. If he plays as well as Alvin Kamara did in 2020 for his Dynasty Owners, then you might be winning your League title and see your team name in the Chase for the Ring standings.
What players are going to be the “best” ones to draft in 2021? With the increase in salary for Kamara and Mahomes, they are no longer affordable options, so will they continue to lead their Dynasty Owners to titles and Chase for the Ring contention in 2021? What players do you think are going to be the “best” ones to have on your Dynasty Owner roster in 2021? Let everyone know by reaching out to me on Twitter (@SteveVT33) or post your thoughts in the comment section of the video on YouTube.
My articles and videos on getting you ready for your 2021 Dynasty Owner start-up league team will be out on Fridays throughout the off-season. Keep an eye out for new articles and videos from the rest of our team of Dynasty Owners writers as well. On Mondays, Nate Christian (@NateNFL) will break down rookies in his Prospect Preview. Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) is back for another year and will do a deep dive into contracts on Wednesdays. Jay Pounds (@JayPoundsNFL) has his articles and videos on how to rebuild your Dynasty Owner roster on Thursdays. Read all of their articles, watch and like all of their videos on YouTube (and all of the other available formats, such as Spotify) and follow the four of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter. Thanks to everyone for following, reading and watching!
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