Week 7 Preview – Key Matchups

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

Week 7 started on Thursday with a key matchup that might help determine who wins the NFC East division this year. Of course, both teams had one win coming into the game because nobody in the NFC East is any good so every time a NFC East team can win a game, it’s a huge step towards winning the division. At the end of the week, the two night games are both key matchups between likely playoff bound teams. On Sunday night, undefeated 5-0 Seattle takes on 4-2 Arizona, while on Monday night, the surprising 5-1 Bears play against the 4-2 Rams. Both of those games will help determine who might win the NFC West and earn the only bye in the conference playoffs. Remember, seven teams from each conference make the playoffs this year, so only the top team per conference gets a bye.

In Dynasty Owner, there are key matchups all over. There are ones between teams in the Top 25 in the Chase for the Ring (Quaranteed for Greatness vs. Oh God Dalvins Cookin) and others between a team in the Chase who is facing a team with the same record (Hyenas vs. The Replacements). In the Experts League, Tim and I face off to see who has bragging rights on the podcast for the rest of the year. And finally, we have a Matchup of the Week between two teams at the top of their league.

Your matchup may not be featured here, but it could be just as important to getting you into the Dynasty Owner playoffs. To help you in your quest to win your League, every week of the regular season and playoffs, there will be a set of players presented at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup as well as one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. We won’t recommend a kicker to Start or Bench though and these won’t be the obvious choices for Starters, like go ahead and start Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (as if you weren’t going to do that already if you have them). Instead, these will be guys to Start who might be ranked outside the top players at their position, not be highly owned or who were drafted to be a backup. For the Bench or Practice Squad choices, we’ll find typical Starters who shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups or past performance against a team. We’ll also review my Week 6 recommendations and see how those players fared.

Finally, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. For the Match-up of the Week, we will look at the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce. If you want your Dynasty Owner team to be featured as the Match-up of the Week in the future, just tweet me (@SteveVT33).

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of October 23rd.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

First, let’s take a look at how my Week 6 Starter recommendations fared (Good, Bad or Just Ok):

  • QB: Kyle Allen – 20.8 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: J.K. Dobbins – 4.9 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Christian Kirk – 22.6 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Cameron Brate – 1.3 (Bad recommendation)

Two consecutive weeks with two Bad recommendations, one Just Ok recommendation and one Good recommendation. The Bad recommendations were once again at RB and TE as neither J.K. Dobbins nor Cameron Brate got enough touches to be productive. Rob Gronkowski hogged all of the TE targets in Tampa this week, leaving Brate to just one catch for three yards. And Gus Edwards got the rushing TD and had more carries than Dobbins (14 to 9), but fewer yards (26 to 28 for Dobbins). Kyle Allen was the #12 QB this week, better than lots of bigger names, and so that pick was Just Ok. Finally, Christian Kirk made the most of his two targets with two catches for 86 yards and two TDs to finish as the #5 WR for the week. That’s a good recommendation! It’s time to duplicate that Good recommendation at WR and get more at the other positions in Week 7.

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): The Browns are one of the few teams who we can look at how Joe Burrow did against them in trying to find a weekly Starter who might be on your Dynasty Owner Bench right now. Back in Week 2, Burrow put up 32.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points against Cleveland. The Bengals trailed by two scores for most of the second half, so Burrow ended up throwing 61 passes. He’s probably not going to throw that many times this week and the Cleveland defense has been much improved recently, allowing only 31.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined in the last three games. However, Burrow has thrown the ball a league high 246 times, an average of 41 times per game, and stands to throw it a lot on Sunday afternoon at home. With that kind of volume, it’s surprising that Burrow is the #19 QB in Dynasty Owner. Bet on Burrow airing it out again against the Browns and putting up enough points to be worth having in your Starting lineup.

Justin Jackson (RB – LAC): Dynasty Owners may have forgotten that Chargers RB Justin Jackson had himself a pretty good game back in Week 5 versus New Orleans with 14.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (71 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 23 receiving yards). He has outperformed fellow Chargers RB Joshua Kelley the past two weeks and stands to do so again this week against Jacksonville. The Jaguars allow an average of 25.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to RBs per game and the fifth most rushing yards in the NFL per game so far this season. Jackson is ranked as the #67 RB for the year right now, but was a RB2 in Week 5. At only $570,000, he’s a great value and should be good for at least that this week. Go ahead and put him in your Starting lineup if he’s on your roster.

Tim Patrick (WR – DEN): When Courtland Sutton got injured, it was an open question of who the top receiver would be in Denver. After five games, it’s been Tim Patrick and Noah Fant with Patrick having more receptions (20 to 19) and yards (310 to 219) and tied with Fant in TDs (2 each). Most importantly, Patrick has more Dynasty Owner fantasy points (63 to 54.9). Of course, Fant missed last week’s game while Patrick played and had 14.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to go ahead. Even though he’s the top WR in Denver, he’s still ranked as the #37 WR in Dynasty Owner so he’s not a definite Starter. He should start this week against Kansas City after three consecutive weeks of double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points (14.3 points in Week 3 versus Tampa Bay; 23.3 points in Week 4 versus the New York Jets; and 14.1 points in Week 6 versus New England). Last year, Sutton averaged 13.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in two games versus Kansas City without scoring a TD. Patrick should equal or exceed that this week and be in your Starting lineup.

Darrell Daniels (TE – ARI): Daniels is the top TE in Arizona, but has only scored 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points all year and ranks as the #58 TE in Dynasty Owner. He has played a majority of the snaps for the Cardinals in each of the past four games and this week gets to the face the worst defense in the NFL against TEs in the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have let five opposing TEs have their best game against them over the first six games of the season (Greg Olsen – 12.4 points in Week 1; Dalton Schultz – 20.8 points in Week 2; Jimmy Graham – 23.0 points in Week 3; Robert Tonyan – 33.8 points in Week 4; Irv Smith Jr. – 11.5 points in Week 6). Daniels’ best week so far this year is 5.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 5 versus the Jets, so it’s not a high bar to clear for him to have his best week of 2020 this week. Daniels is only owned in 1% of Dynasty Owner leagues even though his salary is only $690,000. If you need a TE for Week 7, go out and get Daniels in the Free Agent Auction and put him in your Starting lineup. It worked last week with Anthony Firkser and can work again this week.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Next up is reviewing the Week 6 Bench or Practice Squad recommendations to see how those did.

  • QB: Tom Brady – 20.3 (Just Ok recommendation)
  • RB: Aaron Jones – 13.1 (Bad recommendation)
  • WR: Cooper Kupp – 4.2 (Good recommendation)
  • TE: Noah Fant – DNP

An average week with one Good, one Just Ok and one Bad recommendation. Noah Fant didn’t play so we won’t count him. The G.O.A.T. Tom Brady finished a little bit behind our Starter recommendation Kyle Allen with 20.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to finish just outside the Top 12 QBs at #14. That counts as Just Ok. Aaron Jones didn’t have a great week, but his 13.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points was a Top 20 RB performance which means he should have been a Starter and thus, recommending him for the Bench was Bad. For the second week in a row, the WR Bench recommendation was Good as Cooper Kupp managed just 4.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. So far this year, it’s been at least one Good Bench recommendation per week, but only two of them one time. It’s time for a second week with two (or more) Good Bench recommendations in Week 7.

Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN): Tannehill has played very well this season with only one poor game (14.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 3 versus Minnesota). The Pittsburgh defense is allowing a mere 19.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to the opposition’s starting QB through their first five games. They haven’t exactly faced the best QBs in the NFL in that time (Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield), but have not allowed more than 24.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points to any of them. They had their bye in Week 4 unexpectedly because of a COVID-19 outbreak involving their Week 7 opponent, the Tennessee Titans. Will the Pittsburgh defense be fired up to play Tennessee finally and keep their unbeaten record or will Tannehill show he’s a better QB than all the QBs who have played Pittsburgh already and expose the Pittsburgh defense as not that good? Bet on the former and Bench Tannehill this week.

James Robinson (RB – JAX): While he’s still the overall #8 RB in Dynasty Owner right now, James Robinson has been pretty average the past three weeks, scoring 12.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per week in that time. In the first three games of the season, he averaged 21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In the two weeks he hasn’t scored a TD, he’s only produced 10.0 and 9.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. This week, he faces a Chargers defense that has yet to allow a rushing TD to a RB this season and averages only allowing 16.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per week despite facing off against Top 12 RBs every week (Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mike Davis, Ronald Jones and Alvin Kamara). Even though Dynasty Owners probably will start him anyway since RBs are so hard to find, Robinson probably isn’t worth putting in your Starting lineup this week.

CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL): This would be Michael Gallup, but he’s ranked as the #39 WR in Dynasty Owner right now, so he shouldn’t be a Starter. Both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are in the Top 10, but that was largely built off the work they did with Dak Prescott at QB. Both had good performances last week against Arizona (Cooper had 20.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and Lamb had 12.4 points). However, most of Lamb’s points (11.0) came in garbage time late in the third quarter and the fourth quarter when the Cowboys trailed by more than 20 points and did almost nothing but throw the ball. It’ll be tougher for Dalton and the Cowboys to throw against the Football Team as the team ranks second in passing yards allowed with 207 yards per game and ninth in sacks with 16 total. This choice could easily have been Amari Cooper as he has tended to not perform well in road games as a Cowboy, but that’s been less true this year – maybe because of the lack of crowds. Therefore, Lamb is the pick so put him on the Bench this week.

Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL):  Surprisingly, Hayden Hurst is the #9 ranked TE in Dynasty Owner right now. He was drafted on average as the #9 TE with an ADP of 93.8. He has scored 3 TDs, but is only averaging 3.2 receptions and 37.8 receiving yards per game. That’s what happens when you have Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage on your team, you become the fourth option. Now, he faces a Lions defense that has allowed only 10 receptions to TEs this season. Something tells me that Matt Ryan is going to look more towards Julio, Ridley and Gage this week against the Lions or maybe run the ball with Todd Gurley and Brian Hill against a Lions defense that gives up 123.8 yards per game to RBs on the ground. Hopefully your Dynasty Owner team has a better option so you can Bench Hurst.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week – Prince of Helaire vs. Beaumont Riders

It’s time for our seventh Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week for the 2020 season. This week, we have a battle for first place in League #37205 between the 5-1 Prince of Helaire vs. the 4-2 Beaumont Riders. Not only are they in first and second place but they just pulled off a trade with the Prince of Helaire getting Kareem Hunt in return for sending Jonathan Taylor to the Beaumont Riders. Thanks to Prince of Helaire owner Stuart Spackman (@stuspackman) for sending me the details of the trade and this matchup. The projections are close so let’s dive in.

Based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, the Beaumont Riders should pull the mild upset and move into a tie at 5-2 with the Prince of Helaire. Beaumont Riders are projected to win by only 4.1 points (137.0 to 132.9). Stu must be confident in his team and that the projections are wrong if he’s sending the details of this game, so let’s look each team’s current Starting lineup:

The Starting lineups projected scores (not pictured here) are super close with Beaumont Riders holding a slight advantage (123.5 to 122.4). Both teams have outstanding WRs with Beaumont Riders spending a significant portion of their salary cap ($51 million) on three players, their Starters at WR and FLEX (Davante Adams, Mike Evans and Amari Cooper). Of course, those three guys are projected to score 58.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and if they do, it’ll be money well spent.

Let’s look at both Benches next to check out where Beaumont Riders are gaining their advantage.

The Bench QB competition between Nick Foles and Andy Dalton is projected to be a blowout for Dalton (23.6 to 15.2), which provides quite a bit of the overall Beaumont Riders advantage from Bench scoring (67.6 to 52.3). Not sure if that will turn out to happen, but we’ll find out on Tuesday.

Bravo to both owners for being able to field full Starting lineups and Benches this week. Good drafting and team management there, not surprising since both teams are fighting for the top spot and a first round bye in their league.

Conclusion

Is the Matchup of the Week going to be as close as the Giants-Eagles game? More importantly, what about your weekly Dynasty Owner matchup? Hopefully, yours is a battle for first place or at least an important one on your road to the Playoffs. For those of you in the Chase for the Ring, every matchup is important as you need victories in order to win your League, so you have a chance to win the Ring.

Please read the preview article each and every week. Maybe your team will be featured in a future Match-Up of the Week. If you want your team featured, then just tweet me (@SteveVT33) and check out next week’s preview to see if your matchup was chosen. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21), Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well.

There will also be a weekly Tuesday Live YouTube podcast at 3 PM (Eastern) / Noon (Pacific). The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer will continue with weekly live videos on Wednesdays and Fridays on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube. You can watch them live or catch a replay anytime and find older videos and tutorials there as well. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner has 539 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your weekly matchup, your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

NFL Week 1 Preview – Here We Go!

Author: Steven Van Tassel (@SteveVT33)

Football is back! Things were looking bleak a few months ago when all sports were shut down, but the NBA, NHL and MLB are all playing right now and here comes the NFL! There will be fewer fans in the stands (if any at all in certain places), but football will be on your TV starting with Thursday Night Football between the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans. And Dynasty Owner is back for its second season, the first one with 12-team leagues, but still with real NFL salaries and a hard $110 million salary cap. To all of the returning Dynasty Owners, welcome back and thanks for playing again and reading this preview. For the new Dynasty Owners, thanks for joining us and let’s go over how we do this weekly preview article.

Every week of the regular season and playoffs, we’ll present a set of players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE) who you should have as a Starter in your Dynasty Owner lineup as well as one player per position who should be on your Bench or Practice Squad. We won’t recommend a kicker to Start or Bench though (you’re welcome to all of the people who hate kickers in fantasy football, particularly Kyle Webster). These won’t be the obvious choices for Starters, like go ahead and start Patrick Mahomes, Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas and Travis Kelce (as if you weren’t going to do that already if you have them), but guys who might not be highly owned or who were drafted to be a backup. For the Bench or Practice Squad choices, we’ll find typical Starters who shouldn’t be in your Starting lineup for the week based on matchups or past performance against a team. It’ll be a little bit harder without pre-season games to review, but we need to proceed without the benefit of that information.

Finally, we will look at one Dynasty Owner game, our Match-up of the Week. For the Match-up of the Week, we will look at the overall projected score and then each team’s Starters and Bench to see how their current lineups are projected to produce. For the first week of the season, we have a special Match-Up of the Week planned.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring for kickers gives you 1 point for every extra point, while a missed extra point will cost you 1 point. It’s 2 points for a field goal of between 0 and 39 yards, 4 points for a field goal between 40 and 49 yards and 5 points for a field goal of 50 yards or longer. A missed field goal of between 0 and 39 yards will cost you 3 points, while a miss of 40 yards or more is a loss of 2 points.

For the purposes of this article, ADP and Dynasty Owner ownership statistics were current as of September 9th.

These Guys Should be Starters This Week

Usually, we look to see how my recommendations from the previous week worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok), but seeing as this is Week 1, we don’t have a previous week to review. Instead, let’s take a look at how my 2019 season predictions at each position so everyone can judge whether or not to pay attention to these recommendations. There were no Week 1 or Week 17 predictions, so we just have 15 weeks of predictions.

  • QB: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 7 weeks (47%); Just Ok – 3 weeks (20%)
  • RB: Good – 7 weeks (47%); Bad – 6 weeks (40%); Just Ok – 2 weeks (13%)
  • WR: Good – 7 weeks (47%); Bad – 6 weeks (40%); Just Ok – 2 weeks (13%)
  • TE: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 7 weeks (47%); Just Ok – 3 weeks (20%)
  • All: Good – 24 weeks (40%); Bad – 26 weeks (43%); Just Ok – 10 weeks (17%)

Overall, an average performance in 2019 with two more Bad recommendations than Good ones. In addition to the overall stats, let the record show that there were two weeks with four Good recommendations (Week 3 with Jacoby Brissett, Frank Gore, Nelson Agholor and Greg Olsen and Week 13 with Mitchell Trubisky, Derrius Guice, Cole Beasley and Jack Doyle). Let’s get off to a good start in 2020 with four good recommendations of players who should be Starters this week.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): In both games last year against Arizona, Jimmy G had over 40.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In Week 9, he had 41.1 points and in Week 11, it was 46.9 points. It’s true that several 49ers WRs are banged up right now, but he had his best week of the 2019 season at home against Arizona in Week 11 with his #1 receiving option in George Kittle out injured. Please look at the numbers and don’t discount this recommendation based on my past presidency in the Jimmy Garoppolo Fan Club.

Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI): David Montgomery’s status for the season opening game versus Detroit is unknown, but he did suffer a groin injury back on August 26th and was expected to miss 2-4 weeks. If he is out or plays a limited number of snaps, that means more Tarik Cohen for the Bears. Cohen did well in two games against the Lions in 2019 (21.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points combined) with one receiving TD. However, Montgomery also caught a receiving TD in one of the games against the Lions last year and they allowed eight receiving TDs to RBs in total all season (tied with Houston for the most in the NFL in 2019). Cohen could even pick up more rushing attempts this week with Montgomery’s injury. Cohen is a definite starter this week in either one of your RB spots or at the FLEX position.

DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI): With Alshon Jeffery and first round draft pick Jalen Reagor likely out for the Eagles Week 1 game against the Redskins, DeSean Jackson becomes the top WR in Philadelphia. And boy did Jackson love playing Week 1 versus his old football team last year. He had 35.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Week 1 (8 receptions, 154 yards, 2 receiving TDs) against them and could be in line for similar production in the 2020 season opener. He is only owned in 36% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but if you took a chance on Jackson and his $9.3 million salary, this is the week to put him in your Starting lineup and see if he’s still worth it.

Jordan Reed (TE – SF): After 65 games over six seasons in Washington before missing the entire 2019 season with concussion issues, Jordan Reed is now George Kittle’s backup in San Francisco. Reed will be reunited with Coach Kyle Shanahan who was his offensive coordinator in his rookie season in Washington, one in which he had 45 receptions for 499 yards and 3 TDs in just 9 games. Still, he’s a backup and only owned in 17% of Dynasty Owner leagues, why should Dynasty Owners go out and pick Reed up off the Free Agent Auction and insert him into their Starting Lineup or Bench? Answer: It’s all about the matchup against the Arizona Cardinals who had the worst defense in the NFL in 2019 against TEs. They allowed an average of 19.2 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game to TEs last season. In Week 11, Kittle was out for the 49ers and Ross Dwelley scored 17.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (4 receptions, 14 yards, 2 TDs) against the Cardinals. Plus the 49ers receiving corps are banged up and Kittle has been promoting the idea of using all four 49ers TEs at once (https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/george-kittle-wants-49ers-run-four-tight-end-sets-jordan-reed). Even if they just run a lot of two TE sets, Reed will be on the field a lot in Week 1. Obviously, you start Kittle this week, but feel comfortable putting Reed in your lineup as well.

These Guys Should Be on the Bench (or Practice Squad) This Week

Now it’s time to look at how my Bench recommendations from the previous week worked out (Good, Bad or Just Ok), but again seeing as this is Week 1, we have to take a look at how my 2019 season predictions fared at each position. Everyone can judge whether or not to pay attention to these 2020 Bench recommendations based on my 2019 performance. There were no Week 1 or Week 17 predictions, so we just have 15 weeks of predictions.

  • QB: Good – 6 weeks (40%); Bad – 4 weeks (27%); Just Ok – 5 weeks (33%)
  • RB: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 6 weeks (40%); Just Ok – 4 weeks (27%)
  • WR: Good – 5 weeks (33%); Bad – 5 weeks (33%); Just Ok – 5 weeks (33%)
  • TE: Good – 9 weeks (60%); Bad – 4 weeks (27%); Just Ok – 2 weeks (13%)
  • All: Good – 25 weeks (42%); Bad – 19 weeks (32%); Just Ok – 16 weeks (27%)

My Bench predictions were a little better than my Starter predictions. Bench predictions for TEs were where I shined the most with 60% Good recommendations. Like my Starter recommendations, I also had two weeks with four Good Bench recommendations in 2019 (Week 7 with Kyler Murray, Kerryon Johnson, Terry McLaurin and Jared Cook and Week 12 with Aaron Rodgers, Josh Jacobs, Amari Cooper and Gerald Everett). Let’s see if we can get off to a good start in 2020 with four good recommendations of players who should be sitting on the Bench or hanging out with the Practice Squad this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB): Rodgers doesn’t really like playing at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. He’s played four games there since the stadium opened in 2016. In 2017, he broke his collarbone and the other three games haven’t been a whole lot better than that. He has averaged 14.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the three games he played at the stadium (not including 2017) with no more than 216 yards passing in a single game. He’s also had 1 TD pass twice and zero TD passes once. He did rush for a TD in 2016 when he scored 17.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. In 2018, it was 15.9 points and by last year, he was down to 9.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He is only rostered in 34% of Dynasty Owner leagues, but to those owners with him on their team, leave him on the Bench or Practice Squad this week.

Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE): With an ADP of 60.2, Dynasty Owners drafted Hunt to either start in one of their RB slots or at least in the FLEX position. Hunt only played in eight games and in only two of them did he score less than 10.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. Week 16 against the Ravens was one of them. Hunt got most of his Dynasty Owner fantasy points in the receiving game last year (71.5 of out 99.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). The Ravens were one of the best teams in the NFL last year at stopping RBs from catching the football, allowing only 60 receptions for 454 yards and 1 receiving TD by a RB. Even though it’s a new coach and offensive coordinator in Cleveland, the Ravens defense should be tough again this year, so leave Hunt on your Bench this week on the road against Baltimore.

Amari Cooper (WR – DAL): The Cowboys face the Rams on the road in their first game of the 2020 season with Cooper having missed four straight practices before practicing in full on Wednesday. That’s a series of bad things for Amari Cooper’s Dynasty Owners. As I’ve noted before, Cooper has been a Bench option playing on the road in his career as a Cowboy – averaging only 9.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in eight road games in 2019 and 8.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per road game in four road games for the Cowboys in 2018. He’s also playing against a top cornerback in Jalen Ramsey and back in Week 12 of the 2019 when he played against another top CB on the road (Stephen Gilmore of the Patriots), he was on the Bench These Guys list and got a Blutarsky (0.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). Ramsey also held him to 2.9 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (1 reception for 19 yards) in Week 15 last year. All of that means Cooper should be on your Dynasty Owner Bench (or Practice Squad if you’re stacked at WR) to start the 2020 season.

Evan Engram (TE – NYG): As the sixth TE off the board on average in Dynasty Owner drafts (ADP 84.3), you didn’t draft Engram to have him on your Bench. However, he’s also not going to be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense every week like he is in Week 1. Last year, the Steelers defense was tied for 24th place in receptions allowed to TEs and 29th in yards allowed. They did allow 8 receiving TDs to TEs, but two of them came in Week 2 against Seattle before they acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. In general, it’s probably a good idea to sit players going up against the Steelers defense, so get Engram out of your Starting lineup and on your Bench.

Dynasty Owner Matchup of the Week – New York’s Strongest vs. VIP Club Dub

It’s time for our first Dynasty Owner Match-up of the Week for the 2020 season. While all of the Week 1 Match-ups are compelling and worthy of previewing, there’s really only one team that has to be mentioned here and that’s 2019 Chase for the Ring winner Eddie Driscoll and New York’s Strongest. He’s still the only undefeated player in Dynasty Owner history (if you didn’t play in 2019, you don’t qualify for that honor) and while Eddie has more than one team, he helped put together a league of beta users from 2019 to see if he could knock off the “best of the best” in Dynasty Owner. Will Eddie continue his winning streak, or will Anthony Heuther and his VIP Club Dub squad be the first Dynasty Owner team to defeat New York’s Strongest? At first glance, based on the exclusive Dynasty Owner scoring projections for each team’s current lineup, we see that VIP Club Dub is favored to win by 15.1 points (143.8 to 128.7).

So how is VIP Club Dub predicted to take down the Champ so decisively?  Let’s look each team’s Starters:

New York’s Strongest has the advantage at RB with Barkley and Gordon over Ingram and David Johnson, but VIP Club Dub overwhelms Eddie at TE by having Travis Kelce over T.J. Hockenson. That advantage gives VIP Club Dub an overall 8.9 point lead from his Starters.

On to the Bench where, as a reminder for new players, Dynasty Owners get 20% of their Bench scoring added to their overall point total. Each team has the following players on their Bench right now.

VIP Club Dub has a significant advantage right now with the Bench scoring and is projected to outscore New York’s Strongest at every position. The 31.5 point margin equals an extra 6.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points for VIP Club Dub.

The projections have VIP Club Dub as the winner of this week’s Match-up of the Week, but nothing is official until Monday Night Football is over. Check out the Tuesday recap article to see who actually won and if your team was good enough to make it on to the first Chase for the Ring Leaderboard of 2020.

Conclusion

Please read the preview article each week, maybe your team will be featured in the Matchup of the Week. Remember that there will be a recap article coming out every Tuesday and a preview article posted every Friday throughout the Dynasty Owner season. We will also have articles from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21), Matt Morrison – The Jerk (@Dynastyjerk) and Jay Poundsee (@jaypoundsnfl) during the season as well. Follow all four of us plus Dynasty Owner (@Dynasty_Owner) on Twitter.

There will also be a weekly Tuesday Live YouTube podcast with the creator of Dynasty Owner and Dynasty Owner O.G. Paul Gabrail, Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer and Seth Kerechanin, the voice of Dynasty Owner. The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer will continue with weekly videos that will be posted on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube and other places (iTunes, Spotify, Spreaker). You can catch up with older videos and tutorials there as well. Tune in to learn more about Dynasty Owner, see how our predictions did and help you set your weekly lineup. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. Dynasty Owner is rapidly closing in on 500 subscribers on YouTube and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

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Breaking Down A Real Dynasty Owner Draft Strategy by Round

Author: Jay Poundsee

Heading into my first dynasty owner draft, I felt nervous even being what most consider a pretty avid Fantasy Football player/nerd depending on who you have the pleasure of speaking too. I can sit and talk football or even better fantasy football all day every day, just ask my fiancée shell surely to agree. I had done plenty of mocks heading up to my first ever draft and felt I was as prepared as I could be heading into a format like this. After all, I have read every article Steve Van Tassel has written as well as listened to every podcast I could find with Steve and Tim. I brought my assistant fantasy manager (my 9-year-old son Bentley) up to speed and we were ready to find out our draft position. After hours of anxiously waiting, we finally get word from the guys at dynasty owner 3rd overall it is.

I was not thrilled with 3rd as I knew I would more than likely face the daunting task of drafting or passing on Patrick Mahomes, whose salary skyrockets to around $45 million next season. The thought of trying to build a team with his salary still gives me nightmares but at the end of the day someone must do it, luckily it was not me as the team before me took him. Though it would be a fascinating challenge to try to build around and win with Mahomes on my roster I was thankful the opportunity did not present itself. In Dynasty Owner it seems the draft can go many ways and it is a format where it is imperative to let the draft come to you. I thought I went in with a plan and that plan was in shreds before I even had the chance to pick.

ROUNDS 1-3

Rounds 1-3 are where you set the tone for your team going forward, meaning if you take Michael Thomas ($19,250,000) or Zeke ($15,000,000) you need to start thinking younger and cheaper moving forward. The first 2 picks went Lamar Jackson and Mahomes leaving me non-other than Christian McCaffery at ($4,000,000) with a new contract looming. The thought of having to budget after taking my first player was one, I was not fond of, but when its CMC you take him and let him carry you to a championship. The rest of round one was a good mix of Quarterbacks and Running backs with no Receivers or tight ends taken. Interestingly, only one team spent over 9 million in the first. We started out round two with a nice mix of younger cheap players, as well as a few expensive veterans. Michael Thomas ($19,250,000) went at 13, followed by Joe Burrow ($9,047,543) and Miles Sanders at ($1,337,544).

The end of the second round I watched Deandre Hopkins ($16,200,000) go the pick just ahead of me. At this point my plan was just draft well enough to be able to compete while McCaffery is in his prime, as well as keep him and resign my rookies next year. Staring me in the face was Joe Mixon ($1,362,544) with only one year left or the love of Tim’s life D.J. Moore ($2,792,829). It was my first tough decision of the draft and being a firm believer in Running backs win championships, I went with Mixon. Joe Mixon worries me as well with this being the final year of his contract, in what is sure to be an improved offense he is a sure bet to get paid. Cincinnati also gets last years, their 2019 first round left tackle, Jonah Williams back, which can only help Mixon produce this season. I took my first quarterback, New York Giants Quarterback Daniel Jones ($6,416,014) in the third round. Jones flashed real potential last season as a rookie on a pretty bad football team, so I was okay with him being my QB1 needing as much flexibility as possible to retain Mixon and CMC next season. 

I knew from all my mock drafts not getting at least one Quarterback on a rookie deal would put me into a cap nightmare moving forward. I would, no doubt, must amnesty one to have any type of flexibility going into next season. At this point I had no clue where to go next with 2 of my 3 most important pieces going into a contract year. I decided to try to just let the draft come to me as best as I could.

Rounds 4-7

I knew my 4th round pick was going to be crucial to how the rest of this draft would play out for me. I watched the 2 players I was hoping would fall to me Deandre Swift ($2,124,728) and Calvin Ridley ($2,725,178) get sniped just picks ahead of me. As it becomes my selection, I look at my screen and laugh as I see another potential top 5 running back staring me in the face, Kareem Hunt at ($3,259,000) and the kicker 1 year left on his contract just like my other guys. I looked over at my son, who I knew would have no idea what I was talking about, I said “Son I think I found an odd strategy that just might work.” He got excited and said, “let’s try it Dad.” I smashed draft on Kareem Hunt and had a somewhat clear plan.

The rest of the draft I was going to spend good money to lock down a few solid wide receivers and target players on 1-year deals with high upside. This will free up cap space for next season and give me options of who to keep and who to let go based on performance and outlook this off season in my running back room. Example, if Pittsburgh lets James Connor walk at the end of the year and signs Hunt, then Hunt becomes a no brainier to keep next season. If he flops this year or stays behind Chubb, I just opened cap space for CMC or Mixon’s new deals. When it came time to pick again, I felt like a kindergartner at snack time I was so excited. Julio Jones at a hefty$22,000,000 fell right into my lap. I had zero issue spending big to pair Julio with the CMC, Mixon, Jones, and Hunt, giving me a great core to compete this year. The 6th was what seemed another no brainer for me with Leonard Fournette ($6,787,711) and 1 year remaining (see a trend?). Taking Fournette at this pick was simple because it gave me potentially 4 stud Running backs this season as well as my pick of the litter with these four going into next season with them all on expiring contracts. As my 7th pick was approaching quickly, I noticed almost all the young cheap signal callers were gone, so I decided to reach and go with Sam Darnold ($7,561,929).

I know Darnold is not an attractive pick here, but he has flashed some positive potential and the Jets played considerably better when Darnold was on the field last season vs. when he was out with mono. Pair that with an upgraded line and receiving core it may lead to a solid year from the Jets QB. At this point I am feeling good with where my team is but knew I would need another wide-out plus some younger depth due to Julio’s age and huge contract (amnesty candidate). Also, if I have learned one sneaky good piece of advice it’s don’t be scared of an aging contract who can help win now like Julio Jones, because the amnesty provision is there when needed.

Rounds 8-13

I have to say, I have never gone into the 8th round of a fantasy football draft as anxious as I was in my Dynasty Owner draft. I watched Tyler Lockett ($10,250,000), CeeDee Lamb ($3,502,503), and Justin Jefferson $3,280,701 come off the draft board praying it was not the start of a receiver run before my next selection. Luckily, Devante Parker ($7,625,000), who I am extremely high on, was available and I do not think I could have hit draft fast enough. This gave me what I feel is a very solid floor at the two premier positions in Fantasy Football with CMC, Mixon, Julio, and Parker on top of a ton of cap space still available if I really wanted to spice things up. In the following rounds I really wanted to start adding some young talent with promising careers to my roster, so I went with one of my favorite rookies in Michael Pittman Jr. ($2,153,212). I love Pittman’s situation in Indy with him set to take on a big role this year and replace the oft-injured T.Y. Hilton full time as soon as next season. On the clock with the 118th pick, I selected the man with tree trunks for legs, A.J. Dillion ($1,321,458) running back for the Green Bay Packers. While Aaron Rodgers may not be a fan of the pick, I absolutely love Dillion as a prospect, as a pure between the tackles, old school goal line runner and feel he will have long term success in his career. Dillon has the chance to be a successful Ron Dayne.

In most fantasy drafts as well as this one, I almost always find myself waiting until later in the draft to shoot for the typical breakout tight end season we tend to see every year. One of my breakout candidates this year is Dallas Goedert ($1,406,068) with the horrible injury luck of the Eagles, it seems Philly’s tight ends are due for an even bigger year than originally expected. Alshon Jeffery seems to be starting this season on the PUP list and Desean Jackson may want to consider signing on with bubble wrap at this point; he is so fragile. I see Philly running a ton of 12 personal this season with their number 1 wide-out being a rookie in a shortened off season. This spells big things to come for Dallas Goedert and Philly’s tight end room. At pick number 142 sat The Running Back One for 3 weeks of last season (when Kamara went down) none other than Latavius Murray ($3,600,000). I find Murray to be a great upside piece for my roster especially if Alvin Kamara goes down. He is also someone who will always help with the 20% bench scoring feature here on Dynasty Owner with some standalone value. Round 13 came and I had two things on my mind Talent and cap flexibility. Anthony Miller ($1,338,425) was the selection, I have heard reports on how Miller relied heavily on pure talent in college and his rookie season, and that last year was a bit of a wake up call for him on how important attention to detail and putting in work off the field is. Needless to say it sounds like it’s a make it or break it year for Miller and those are pieces I love on my team, especially with only one year remaining giving me the ability to cut ties freely if needed this off season.

Rounds 14-18

Once you get to this point in most drafts, you are simply looking for two things, depth, and upside. The thing is this is not most drafts. There are so many ways your draft can go at this point from needing to find no-name super cheap players to even out your top-heavy cap or having plenty of room and zero worries. I was here thinking I need to find guys on 1 or 2-year deals who can produce now giving me the flexibility I need going forward. With pick number 166 I took a flier on Justin Jackson ($5,700,000). The kid has seemed to flash greatness at times averaging 6.9 yards per carry last season. I followed that up with Sammy Watkins ($9,000,000) for bench scoring, bye weeks, and cap space next season. Watkins happens to play with a quarterback named Mahomes, so I had no issue taking a chance this late on a piece of Andy Reid’s offense. This is where things started to dry up in the draft knowing I could not spend big unless they were on a one-year deal because of the need to keep as many running backs as possible next season.

My plan was to look for a few handcuffs for my players in the next few rounds. I am not typically a fan of my own handcuffs, but with Covid-19 going nowhere I feel it is necessary this season and possibly next. I took Russel Gauge ($654,049) as a potential handcuff for Julio Jones. I know Gauge would not be the direct beneficiary as that goes to Calvin Ridley, but Gauge would become an easy start each week in Dirk Koetter’s pass happy offense with Julio or Ridley going down. Ryquell Armstead was my next selection as Fournette’s handcuff. I felt he was an easy choice here as there seems to be little competition for Armstead as the Jaguars backup. Chris Thompson is there but outside of a few passing situations he does not worry me even having the shower narrative with his old coach Jay Gruden. In the 18th round I selected rookie running back for the Miami Dolphins Malcom Perry ($842,622). Perry is nothing more than a practice squad player that I hope will pan out over his rookie deal in a young talented offense.

Rounds 18-25

I will do my best not to bore you with the bottom rounds as there is not a whole lot of strategy involved, aside from finding players you feel are talented. There are a few curve balls in this format if you have cap space as players like Marvin Jones ($8,000,000), Carson Wentz ($32,000,000) and Matt Ryan ($30,000,000) were never even drafted. Quintez Cephus ($734,822) was the player I took next. I find Cephus extremely intriguing over a singular statement. The statement came from Detroit Lions corner back Jeff Okudah where Okudah was asked who the best receiver he has ever faced, Okudah replied “Quintez Cephus” being a Buckeyes fan that is enough for me to take a flier.  I selected tight end Will Dissly ($777,568) at my next spot. Dissly has had a few disappointing injuries the past 2 seasons but when healthy he has showed promise and Russel Wilson seems to love the guy. He also seems to be superhuman with how quickly he recovers from significant injuries. Famous Jameis Winston was the next pick for me. I love the thought of Winston working with Sean Payton and Drew Brees and potentially taking over. He also had Lasik eye surgery this season which may be the cause of some of the mind-numbing interceptions he has thrown throughout his career.

I wanted to take a kicker earlier than normal in this format because I wanted to make sure I got solid production without having to spend a few million. Greg Joseph ($660,000) was the pick. I am a big fan of the Titans offense going into this season. The Titans were one of the most efficient teams in NFL history on offense last season when Tannehill took over which will hopefully lead to easy freebies for my kicker with him at the helm for the foreseeable future. Jared Cook ($7,500,000) was still on the board at pick number 267 which was extremely surprising to me. With only 1 year left on his contract in a particularly good offense, I figured it was a win win with production and free cap space next year. With my final two selections of my very first Dynasty Owner draft, I took two more kickers. Brett Maher ($750,000) for the New York Jets and Matt Prater ($3,800,000). Prater was a bit more than I planned to spend on a kicker, but he plays for a good offense. I remember reading an article by Steve Van Tassel, who mentioned how important having 3 kickers was in Dynasty Owner. The reason for this is because of the 20 percent bench scoring each week, if you only have 2 kickers you will take 2 big fat ZEROs on your bench for bye weeks.

Summary and Free Agent Pickups

After the draft I was looking over my team, deciding how to spend the rest of my cap space in a responsible manner. I knew anyone I picked up had to be on a one-year deal, so I am not on the hook past this season, after all they were not drafted. Corey Davis ($6,348,672) was available and I needed more potential production at receiver, so I placed a bid and got him. Shortly after the guys from Dynasty Owner announced $2 Million in extra cap space so I placed a bid for Marvin Jones and his 1 year $8,000,000 salary. I knew Jones if healthy would offer me that extra upside and depth I need at wide out. I was surprised that I was able to pick up a player with the upside of Marvin Jones in a potential top 10 offense with the Detroit Lions for the minimum bid of 1,000,000 Dynasty Dollars. My overall draft experience here on dynasty owner was nothing short of phenomenal and addicting. There are so many different strategies to go with and most happen on the fly while drafting which makes it a lot of fun.

The strategy I went with in my draft was too get uber talented players with 1 year left on their deals in return my team only has $53,000,000 in cap space committed next season giving me plenty of freedom to do what I want next off season on top of signing my rookies. Overall, I have to say I am hooked on the in-depth year-round strategy this format takes to succeed and cannot wait for future seasons to see how my team performs, as well as running a few more teams. I hope this article helps you get a sense of what the draft process is like and gives you a somewhat in-depth look at the problems and thought process you will face in your upcoming drafts. One last takeaway from my draft and the research I have done recently for articles is that I have never seen such differences in where players are drafted as well as surprises on a draft-by-draft basis than you will find here at Dynasty Owner.  As always good luck on your Chase for The Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Blind QB and WR Comparisons

Author: Matt “The Jerk” Morrison

Hey y’all. It’s The Jerk here with my inaugural article. Today I’ll discuss some blind player comparisons and how the biased impressions we may have of players should not interfere with the statistics. In the same way, the total points a player has at the end of the season should not interfere with how the player arrived at that number.  (i.e. not all 1000-yard seasons are created equal) Let’s jump into some comps…

Wide Receivers

COMP 1

Who would you rather have between these two WRs?

Player A (Alpha):

  • 30 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 14.3 points/game for the games played (222.8 for 16 game season)
  • 60 rec / 836 yards / 12 TD (for 16 game season)
  • He missed 8 games in 2019

Player B (Bravo):

  • 27 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 14.9 points/game (238.4 total)
  • 83 rec / 1,174 yards / 6 TD
  • He played all 16 games in 2019

Alpha and Bravo’s salaries are within 1 million dollars of each other and the length of their contact is the same.

So, skim through that and (based on this limited data) decide which receiver you would prefer to draft…Have your answer?  I’m assuming it’s Bravo. That’s not to say that if you picked Alpha you are wrong, but people (in dynasty especially) tend to draft the younger, less injury prone player. This isn’t even mentioning the fact that Bravo outscored Alpha’s assumed point total if he’d been healthy.  Some may not be able to pass on the possibility of 12 touchdowns and that’s understandable. If you infer from Alpha’s numbers, you can see that he had 6 TD’s in 8 games in 2019. One hell of an 8-game stretch. While his reception total may not be the type of volume you’d like, it appears his efficiency made up for it. 

In the end, I would take Bravo.

  • Younger
  • Better average 16 game season
  • Seemingly healthier (at least last season)

Let me give out a little more info and see if it changes your mind…

Coming into 2020, Alpha is the clear WR1 on his team.  I would argue that his target share will be top 10 among all receivers this year.  His team is a run first offence, which explains some of the lack of volume he received for the half of the year he played.  In 2019, his team chose to pass on only 51.7% of plays.  That ranked 29th.

There’s not much to say about Bravo coming into 2020.  His offensive unit from 2019 has stayed intact (QB, WRs, RBs).  There is debate among analysts on whether he is the WR1 on the team or WR2.  To me, it doesn’t much matter.  Both are very talented receivers and either one could end 2020 with the better stats.  I’d call it a WR1A and WR1B situation with Bravo (fittingly) being the WR1B.  Bravo’s team passed on 59.6% of their plays.  That ranked 18th.

Has your opinion changed?  Maybe the fact that Alpha is primed for a high-volume season has swayed you to pick him?  Maybe the fact that you found out Bravo is going to be fighting for targets against a likely superior receiver has caused you to fade him?  Not me…I’m sticking with Bravo for now.  Let’s throw out some quick stats and see if you can guess the players, if you haven’t already. 

  • If you go back to 2018, Alpha was WR7 overall while Bravo was WR18.
  • For 2020, Alpha is projected to outscore Bravo by 21 points in DO.
  • Alpha makes 16,050,000 for 5 years, while Bravo makes 15,100,00 also for 5 years.
  • Alpha’s Offensive Coordinator in 2019 became Bravo’s Head Coach for 2020.

There’s a lot to unpack here. First, Alpha was far superior in 2018. WR7 doesn’t happen by accident or without elite receiver talent. Alpha is projected to be the more productive WR once again in 2020. As I stated in the opening, their contracts are very similar, but now we know the actual cap hit one or both of these guys will make.  They are each hovering around 15% of the cap. Also, remember what I said earlier about Alpha’s team having the 29th lowest passing percentage among NFL teams in 2019? Well, the Offensive Coordinator of Alphas team is now the head coach of Bravo’s team and it would stand to reason he will bring that low passing volume philosophy with him.

My point of this comp wasn’t necessarily to get you to contradict yourself although that may have happened. I was attempting to show how nuanced certain statistics can be and how no one stat or a group of stats can tell the entire picture. I’m sure many of you know who these two players are by now, but consider this idea…

These players are much closer together than they originally appeared based on the raw stats. Of course, everyone will still favor one player over the other, but it’s hard to argue a large gap in where they should be drafted or even where they will end up at the end of the season. It’s hard to argue until we get the final reveal…

Each player’s Dynasty Owner ADP at the time of writing…

  • Adam Thielen (Alpha):            56.3
  • Jarvis Landry (Bravo):            97.3

The gap of 41.0 between Thielen and Landry is, personally, surprising to see. I chalk it up to a couple of facts. First, Thielen’s target share is sure to take off this year barring another injury.  The departure of Diggs to Buffalo opens up 63 receptions and over 1,100 yards. Obviously, I don’t anticipate all of those targets or receptions to go to Thielen especially after drafting an exciting and talented WR in Justin Jefferson, but he will no doubt shoulder more of the passing volume. I would actually counter that point by bringing up Olabisi Johnson. The second year, seventh round draft pick comes into 2020 poised for a breakout. It would not be surprising to see Bisi start the season opposite Thielen and finish with 60 plus receptions. Second, it’s hard for drafters to justify taking a player like Jarvis in one of the first 8 rounds that is once again assumed to play second fiddle to Odell Beckham Jr. As I said earlier, I predict it to be more of a 1A, 1B situation similar to last year, but I can understand the hesitancy when OBJ carries as much upside as he does. Third, (and I think the more overarching point of this exercise) Jarvis is just an unsexy pick. He is a steady player who doesn’t “pop off” like other high upside players being drafted around him. He is reliable to sit between the 12-16 fantasy points most weeks with a slim chance of “week winning performances.”

For me, these stats show that Thielen and Landry should be drafted much closer than ADP currently has them. Ironically, the spot I think they should be drafted is much closer to Jarvis’ current ADP than Thielen’s. I have Thielen currently at 90 and Landry at 108.  The reason for that is simply their contracts. I prefer many younger (even rookie) receivers over both of them. I don’t see either one of them as a value where they’re currently being drafted, but I see Landry at 97.3 as much less of a reach than Thielen at 56.3. The second blind comp I have today is a little closer ADP wise, but we’ll get to that later.

COMP 2

Player C (Charlie):

  • 27 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 16.1 points/game for games played (257.6 for 16 game season)
  • 87 rec / 1,127 yards / 8 TD for 16 game season.
  • He (miraculously) only missed one game last year.

Player D (Delta):

  • 25 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 13.8 points/game for games played (220.7 for 16 game season)
  • 90 rec / 1,046 yards, 5 TD for 16 game season.
  • He did not miss a game in 2019.

Charlie and Delta’s salaries are within half a million dollars of each other. Admittedly, there isn’t much to go on that distinguishes these two players yet…Charlie had a 22.3 target percentage and a 24.0 reception percentage for his team.  Delta had a 25.0 target percentage and a 25.4 reception percentage for his team.

Charlie had 24 red zone targets and 17 red zone receptions.  24 and 17 is second only to Michael Thomas’ 26 and 20, respectively.  Delta had 12 red zone targets and 7 red zone receptions.  As you can probably guess based on final stats, Charlie converted more red zone receptions into touchdowns than Delta, to the tune of 7 (C) to 3 (D).

Charlie’s offensive unit remains intact from 2019.  His QB is hyper-efficient and finished as QB 3 last year.  Charlie is the WR 1 on his team, but alongside him is a second year WR who was flirting with a 1,000-yard season himself in 2019.  Delta is working with a rookie QB who will be the Week 1 starter and a veteran WR who “should” be healthy this year after missing all of last season with multiple injuries.  (I know this just gave away Player D, but this is important info I had to include) there’s no doubt that Delta will bump down to the WR 2 on the team.

Who would you rather have?

If you haven’t guessed yet, I’m talking about two Tyler’s here.  Lockett (C) and Boyd (D). Tyler Lockett is making $10,250,000 for two years.  Tyler Boyd is making $10,750,000 for the next four years. At the time of this writing, Lockett’s ADP is 79.0 and Boyd’s is 76.4.

I’ll give you my opinion…I want Lockett. I concede that Seattle is stingy when it comes to passing and are a run heavy offence, (In fact, Seattle was 27th last year in passing play percentage) but Russell and Lockett have proven to be the one of the most efficient QB/WR duo in the league. I don’t like to listen to coach talk or listen to narratives, (especially when it comes from the most optimistic Head Coach in the league, Pete Carroll) but I believe Pete when he says, “we want him to have more opportunity to be the factor of the game and control the game.” I don’t expect a full #LetRussCook season is coming, but I do believe Russell will have more passing opportunities this year which, in turn, would give more opportunity to Lockett.  Lockett is obviously well trusted in the red zone and the ten-zone. While touchdowns are notoriously unpredictable, it is refreshing to see that Russell trusts Lockett in the end zone, and I don’t expect that volume to vanish. 

This is not to say that I hate Boyd or wouldn’t draft him.  I do like him and would be happy to take him if he fell to a value.  The problem I see is twofold.  First, Joe Burrow coming in may not be as smooth a transition as most predict.  Obviously, the talent is there, and I’m predicting a successful career for Joe, but with this unprecedented pre-season, I see some growing pains.  Second, the “return” of AJ Green gives me pause.  I get it.  I get it.  As soon as AJ is mentioned people immediately start rolling their eyes and tune out.  AJ has played 35 games in the last four seasons.  That’s less than nine games a season.  So, I understand if you want to make the argument, “AJ will get hurt at some point this season, and when he does, Boyd will be catapulted into a top 15 WR.”  It’s an understandable argument, but I personally don’t like to bet on injury.  I factor injury risk into my rankings like most, but I’m not going to use another player’s injury potential to indirectly affect his teammate’s ranking.  Suffice it to say, I believe AJ will play at least 10 games this season.  If he does, Boyd is being drafted slightly too high, and he definitely shouldn’t be taken over Lockett.  If AJ plays all 16 games healthy (I admit it’s a longshot), then Boyd is being drafted way too high.  I have Tee Higgins and Auden Tate also competing for an impactful amount of targets this year.  Again, Cincinnati doesn’t have the most crowded offence in the league, but it is deceptive how many mouths there are to feed.

Boyd deserves to be drafted, but with his nearly 11-million-dollar salary, the middle of the sixth round is a little too early for my comfort.  In my updated rankings, I have Lockett at WR 30 (81 Overall) and Boyd at WR 36 (93 Overall).  In addition, I would rather take these WR’s that are currently being drafted after Boyd…

  • Keenan Allen: $11,250,00 for 1 year (81.4)
  • Darius Slayton: $688,497 for 3 years (84.1)
  • Dionte Johnson: $1,070,241 for 3 years (88.1)

Slayton and Johnson are obvious picks for me.  The 10-million-dollar cap saving you’re getting with either of these guys far outweighs the increase in points that Boyd will provide.  Allen has a comparable salary, but I see his role being much more defined and unaffected than Boyd’s, even given the probable QB turnover in LA.

Now, let’s jump to some QB comps…

Quarterbacks

COMP 1

In a vacuum, who would you rather draft?

Player A (Alpha):

  • 24 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 20.7 points/game average (331.2 points for 16 game season)
  • 3,738 yards / 24 TD / 7 INT (for 16 game season)
  • 2020 Projected: 324 points
  • Salary is $677,721 for 3 years

Player B (Bravo):

  • 27 years old
  • 2019 stats
  • 22.6 points/game (361.2 points)
  • 4,039 yards / 27 TD / 7 INT
  • 2020 Projected:  399 points
  • Salary is $32,000,000 for 5 years

Clearly, Bravo is projected to outscore Alpha, and I would agree that is likely to happen this year. The question becomes…is the (projected) 75-point difference enough to justify a more than 31-million-dollar upcharge? I would emphatically say no. 31 million is 27% of your cap. In other words, you would be using 27% of your cap for a 75-point increase.  I know what you’re saying…” But projections aren’t always accurate.” I completely agree.  Let’s say for argument’s sake that we believe Player B will outscore Player A by 120 points.  Would the 31-million-dollar upcharge now be worth it?  Possibly.  Maybe. I don’t think I would pay it, but there are certainly people that would.  At the time of this writing, Gardner Minshew (A) and Carson Wentz (B) are being drafted at 69.5 and 48.8 respectively. On average, Wentz is being drafted 21 spots before Minshew.  Baffling… Obviously, there are many more factors that I’m leaving out involving these two QB’s, but I think I’ve made my point. Young, cheap starting QB’s are few and far between in this game and they should be valued that way. I could make this same argument for Drew Lock, Sam Darnold, and even Dwayne Haskins.  Give me all three of those earlier than Wentz. Please please please, don’t draft Wentz over Minshew. For reference, Steve Van Tassel and I have a consensus ranking of QB 11 for Minshew and QB 18 for Wentz.

COMP 2

Let’s compare a couple hypothetical QB situations next…

Player C (Charlie):

  • 25 years old
  • Previous years stats
  • 30.4 points/game (486.7 points)
  • 4,900 yards / 36 TDs / 10 INT
  • 400 rush yards / 3 rush TDs

Player D (Delta):

  • 31 years old
  • Previous years stats
  • 27.7 points/game (442.4 points)
  • 4,300 yards / 33 TDs / 8 INT
  • 330 rush yards / 3 rush TDs

Who would you rather have? The clear answer is Charlie. He is younger, put up more points last year, and (I didn’t include it) will be projected to score more points this coming year. Would your mind change if Charlie cost (let’s say) 10 million more than Player D?

Maybe? Probably? It makes the decision a lot tougher, no doubt. 

Well this is actually not a hypothetical scenario. This is the decision that Dynasty Owners will be making next year between Patrick Mahomes (C) and Russell Wilson (D) in Dynasty Owner start up drafts. The “previous years stats” are the projected finish for each of them for 2020. Obviously, neither of them will finish with those exact stats, but I think it’s reasonable to believe those are close. 

At any rate, who do you want going into 2021? I, personally, would still take Mahomes and find a way to save the extra 10 million each year, but it’s very close. I could make an argument for Wilson and my main point would be the fact that you are only tied to him for a third of the years you are tied to Mahomes. My point is that next year (after Mahomes is no longer 4.1 million a year to own), he and Wilson should be much closer in ADP, if not back to back. This means that Mahomes’ current ADP of 2.0 is that high, mainly for this year. Let me ask this a different way…

If Mahomes’ contract was 45 million this year, where would you have drafted him? My honest answer is QB 11 or around 75 overall and right before Wilson. This is the reason I am so much lower on Mahomes’ than almost everyone I have talked to.  I understand how important this year is. I understand the “win now” mentality and if you have Mahomes for 4.1 million, you have a great chance to win, but I can’t justify taking a 45 million-dollar QB next year first or second overall.  I like Mahomes. Scratch that. I love Mahomes, but there is no value (Dynasty Owner wise) to take him in the first half of the first round.

I’ll sum it up in this way…Dynasty Owner Tim stated a few weeks ago that there will be a time in this game where Russell Wilson is a value.  I couldn’t agree with him more. That time will start next year when Mahomes gets paid and it will peak in two years when Lamar, Watson and most likely Dak are making more than him. If Russell starts to slide in drafts to a point of value and you’ve been diligent with your cap, don’t be afraid to grab him. You’ll thank yourself in two years.

Thanks everyone for sticking with me. Take care and be safe. Cheers!

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

The Top Five Players to Draft at Every Position

Author: Jay Poundsee

As we have all learned, Dynasty Owner is a far different fantasy football game than any of us have ever known. In this format, you will find more extraordinary differences in value than any other draft you have ever found yourself in. In my start-up draft, I watched players like Courtland Sutton and his $1,710,480 salary be drafted with the 34th pick. While a player like Julio Jones and his $22,000,000 salary fell to me all the way down at the 51st selection of the draft. Looking at these draft boards without any insight to the situation may be enough to drive the average man insane. The thought of trying to figure out how Mecole Hardman with a salary of $1,248,763 gets sandwiched between Keenan Allen at $11,250,000 and Stefon Diggs and his $14,400,000 salary may just drive you bonkers. Luckily, we at Dynasty Owner have your back and are here to help.

In this article I will be giving the top 5 players at each position I recommend targeting in your upcoming drafts. The requirements will be players with high upside, 2 or more years left on their deal, and under $9.9 (million) per year salary(5th year options will be assumed).

Quarterbacks

Let us start with what I feel is the most important position here in Dynasty Owner, which is the quarterback. The number one QB and most likely number 1 pick in every draft will be Lamar Jackson with 2 years at $2.3(million) left on his deal. He is almost a sure bet to be the best value in all of Dynasty Owner in terms of cost per point.

At number two, I have Kyler Murray, who has 4 years left at $8,789,661 per year. I have Kyler at number 2 because of the potential he showed in 2019 as a rookie on a bad football team. It also helps when you give a young talented kid a wide-out named Deandre Hopkins. Needless to say, the Arizona Cardinals are a must watch on TV this season.

At the 3rd quarterback spot has to be Daniel Jones with 4 years left at $6,416,014. I know the majority will have Josh Allen over Jones, but I feel Jones has more upside after the rookie year he just had. If you take Jones stats and stretch them out over 16 games, he would have broken Baker Mayfield’s rookie touchdown record of 27(paced at 32) along with roughly 350-400 rushing yards and that screams great cost per point at the quarterback position.

As mentioned above, I have Josh Allen at 4 with 2 years left at $5,295760. Allen has improved each year and seems to have a solid floor because of his rushing work near the goal line. When you pair that with a cheap salary it makes him an easy choice here.

Rounding out my top 5 is the incoming number 1 overall draft pick Mr. Joe Burrow at $9,047,534 and 5 years to go on his deal. I absolutely love Burrow’s potential as well as the sneaky good upside of the Bengals offense and what they have started to build around him in year 1. Burrow just had the best college season ever, while showing the most poise and confidence we have ever witnessed. He is still a rookie so for now he checks in at number 5. This kid has greatness written all over him!

Running Backs

With our next position, we will be talking about the running backs. In these rankings you won’t find any better than Saquon Barkley with 3 years left at $7,798,688. There isn’t much here to say about Barkley. He pretty much speaks for himself at this point, health is the only concern.

At number 2 I have Clyde Edwards-Helaire at $2,705,393 with 5 years left on his deal. I know hes only a rookie but looking back through recent history, first round running backs have always seen 200 plus touches (aside from Rashad Penny). If Joe Blow from the corner store was in this Chiefs backfield getting 200 plus touches at a low salary, I would want him on my roster. Let’s not forget the reports of Mahomes texting CEH during the draft saying “I want you on my team” or Coach Andy Reid’s Brian Westbrook comparison. I think it’s safe to say the chiefs have big time plans for their rookie.

At 3, I have Miles Sanders and his $1,337,544 salary with another 3 years to go in Doug Pederson’s offense. Philly’s running backs coach Deuce Staley has had nothing but high praises this off season about Sanders talent and his upcoming workload, which means big things are coming. Sanders is an immensely talented running back who broke out in the second half last year. I would rank him in the top 5 of all Running backs on pure talent alone.

At 4, I have Josh Jacobs and his $2,983,350 salary with 4 years left on his deal. Jacobs is a true workhorse who could use some work on his receiving, but he seems to have a remarkably high floor and a huge workload ahead of him.

Rounding out the running backs, I have Nick Chubb in 5th. His salary is $1,845,774 and he still has 2 more years left on his contract in Cleveland. The presence of Kareem Hunt is what puts Jacobs ahead of Chubb here.

Wide Receivers

Starting things off at wide receivers, I have one of my personal favorite young fantasy players in all formats and that’s DJ Moore with a potential 3 years left at $2,792,829. I love the upside of Moore and the potential he has shown his first 2 years and let’s face it, he’s yet to have anything but a below average quarterback throwing him the ball. The floor for DJ Moore is extremely high with Teddy Two Gloves in the mix. The next slot was tough for me as I am a diehard Ohio State Buckeye fan and love the upside mixed with production for Terry McLaurin.

With that said, at number 2 I have to go with AJ Brown at $1,413,092 and 3 years left on his deal. I think the upside of the Titans offense is far superior to The Washington Football Team giving AJ Brown a much safer floor and a higher ceiling going forward. In 2019 Brown had just under 19% of the Titans target share which is all but guaranteed to receive a boost in 2020. Somehow, despite all of that he was still able to produce 1,051 yards and 8 touchdowns. Once Ryan Tannehill (who the Titans resigned to a 4 year deal this past off season) took over, Brown exploded onto the fantasy scene.

My third receiver as stated above is Terry McLaurin, who I see as a target monster in Washington. We have all seen with targets comes production in just about all cases. McLaurin has 3 years left at $961,918 which is going to make him an amazing cost per point player in 2020 and years to come.

At number 4 I have DK Metcalf who has 3 years at $1,146,513 left on his deal. In 2019 Metcalf flashed tremendous potential alongside Russel Wilson. Anytime I can get a talent like that catching passes from a quarterback like Wilson sign me up.

At 5 I have my second DJ in DJ Chark JR at $1,111,807 and 2 years left on his current deal. The offense in Jacksonville doesn’t get my wheels spinning but Chark is too good of a cheap young talent to pass on.

Tight Ends

Finally, we have everyone’s favorite position the tight ends. My number 1 tight end here in Dynasty Owner regardless the requirements is none other than Mark Andrews with a salary of just $863,290 and 2 years left. I love the upside of Andrews in the Ravens offense where he played only 44 percent of the team’s offensive plays last year. With the way Andrews has produced thus far he’s almost a lock to be on the field more this season. Look for a big bump up in production for Mr. Andrews in the coming seasons.

In the 2nd spot, I have my breakout tight end in 2020, Dallas Goedert. Goederts salary is $1,406,068 and he has 2 years left on his current deal. I look for Zach Ertz to start showing his age and have a dip in production along with the Eagles receiving situation I look for Goedert to have a big year with a huge bump in targets this season.

At number 3, I have TJ Hockenson at $4,955,306 and 4 years left on his deal. Tight ends tend to take longer than any other position to transition into the NFL and with Hockenson at a cheap salary and potential high production coming over the next few years, he is a no-brainier for me to want on my roster.

Right behind Hockenson at number 4, I have his old Iowa Hawkeye teammate and freak athlete, Noah Fant. The Bronco tight end has as much upside as any young tight end at a salary of $ 3,147,680 and 4 years left in Denver. Which makes him a must have tight end in this format.

Bringing up the rear at number 5, I have Chris Herndon with 2 years left at $792,841. Herndon had a very disappointing year in 2019 with a suspension and 2 separate injuries holding him to just one catch for 7 yards. While 2019 may have been a disappointment, Herndon was excellent his rookie year breaking the rare 500 yard receiving mark for tight ends in their rookie year.

I hope this article helps all of you in your upcoming drafts and remember to always think about your salary next year, who has a new contract coming, and cost per point in this format it’s what will win you championships here in Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @Dynasty_Owner

Roster Roundup – Round Five: AFC East

Taking A Dive Into The Rosters From Around The League

Author: Chris Wolf

This time of year is typically the time when teams, trainers and agents hype up their players. We know how the world has changed in recent months and the NFL is no different in its approach to returning to “normalcy”. With the news of NFL staff and players testing positive for the Coronavirus, fantasy news is taking a backseat. As a result, fantasy players are missing out on the typical hyperbole surrounding pre-season roster news and notes.

In this series we will look at who’s who on rosters and how that may help in your drafts and early waivers.

Each week we will examine a division’s skill position current roster and predictive depth chart heading into training camp to see how that relates to their fantasy outlook.

Buffalo Bills

HC: Sean McDermott

OC: Brian Daboll

QB: Josh Allen, Matt Barkley, Davis Webb, Jake Fromm

RB: Devin Singletary, TJ Yeldon, Zack Moss, Taiwan Jones, Christian Wade, Antonio Williams, Patrick Demarco, Reggie Gilliam

WR: Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Andre Roberts, Isaiah Hodgins, Nick Easley

TE:Dawson Knox, Tyler Kroft, Lee Smith, Tommy Sweeney, Jason Croom, Nate Becker

Sean McDermott returns for his fourth season at the helm after leading the team to the playoffs in two of his first three years. There is talent on both sides of the ball, especially on the defense. OC Brian Daboll has generally called a well-balanced game with a definite emphasis on the run. Josh Allen returns under center with more optimism this year than his last two years. He now welcomes more weapons and a better offensive line. Allen is a unique talent utilizing both his cannon of an arm with a steady diet of his capable legs. In his 28 career games played, he has thrown for 30 TD’s to 21 INT’s. He’s not going to throw for a ton of yards, but he will make up for it on the ground. He has amassed 17 rushing scores and at least 510 yards in both of his seasons played. In 2019 Allen had 22 Red Zone rush attempts resulting in 9 TD’s including 5 TD’s within the 5-yard line. Like his popular comparison, that is truly Newton-esque. Allen makes for a fine QB1 or a great QB2 at a very affordable price tag of $5.3 million. Matt Barkley is a career back-up and presently has the no.2 job while the future Matt Barkley is Jake Fromm and he should beat out Davis Webb for the 3rd QB spot.

The RB position returns Devin Singletary and TJ Yeldon from last season’s middling run game. Frank Gore is gone, and his 173 attempts are now up for grabs but are expected to go to pre-draft darling Zack Moss. Singletary ($974,500) showed some promise in his rookie campaign but was often stifled behind a run blocking unit that graded out in the middle of the pack. Not only was he handicapped by a so-so offensive line, inside the 20 the snaps went to Gore and Allen. Gore and Singletary scored just 4 TD’s between them to Allen’s 9. Moss ($1.15 million) figures to come in to add some juice to the position after the departure of Gore. Moss was the all-time leading rusher and scorer at Utah and profiles as a solid runner with power and good hands. Singletary should lead the backfield in touches with Moss right behind him.

The Wide Receiver group got an upgrade this off-season with a big trade for former Viking Stefon Diggs. Diggs ($14.4 million) immediately figures to slot in as the #1 receiver and will be a fine complement to John Brown ($9 million) and Cole Beasley ($7.25 million). Diggs is a dynamic route runner that always seemed like he just needed the chains to come off. He will be hard pressed to find a ton of volume in this offense, but he should dominate the targets. Due to landing spot alone, he figures to post mid to low end WR2 numbers, but he has the makings of a top 12 receiver if this offense was to drastically change. Brown is a burner with fantastic ball tracking ability but is sure to take a hit in almost all categories with Diggs in town. Brown led the team in targets, receptions, yards and tied Beasley for 1st in scoring with 6 TD’s. Capable of lining up all over the field, Diggs arrival might just free Brown up from the opposing team’s top defenders allowing him to do what he does best…make plays in the open field. Beasley was a particularly good addition last year for Allen’s growth and his QB bail-out-ability provided a fantastic security blanket for the young Allen. He was second on the team in targets, receptions, and yards and should continue to occupy the slot much like he did in 2019. As Diggs enters his prime (age 27), Beasley (31) and Brown (30) will most likely be on the downward trajectory of Buffalo’s plans. The Bill’s selected both Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins in the 2020 draft to begin framing out their future at the position. Davis should settle into the WR4 role on the team, passing the forgotten speedster Robert Foster.

Dawson Knox was a rookie in 2019 and did not have the advantage to sit and learn behind veteran TE’s like the majority of rookie TE’s get to. The former 3rd rounder is highly athletic but is in a very crowded target situation with all those receivers and Singletary competing for grabs. Knox drew 51 targets for 28 catches, 388 yards and 2 touchdowns last year and that might be the range he stays in for 2020. Veteran Tyler Kroft was added to the mix but won’t be on any fantasy radar barring several injuries.

Miami Dolphins

HC: Brian Flores

OC: Chan Gailey

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Rosen

RB: Jordan Howard, Matt Breida, Kalen Ballage, Myles Gaskin, Patrick Laird, Chandler Cox

WR: DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Gary Jennings, Isaiah Ford, Jakeem Grant, Mack Hollins, Matt Cole, Kirk Merritt

TE: Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Adam Shaheen, Chris Myarick

The Dolphins were in the media dubbed “Tank for Tua” mode early in the season before the scrappy overachievers made the mistake of starting the poster boy for gritty- Ryan Fitzpatrick. HC Brian Flores obviously did not like the way the offense was heading (Fitzpatrick was their leading rusher) so he went and sprung the 68-year-old Chan Gailey from Shady Acres retirement home to shake things up. The Fins still wound up getting Tua and he will reportedly compete early for the starting gig even after being just a year removed from a horrible hip dislocation and ankle injury. Tua’s will to win and his insane accuracy will make it hard for the coaching staff to keep him off the field, pandemic or not. His mobility will be in question coming off hip and ankle injuries, but he is such a competitor, he will find a way to adjust his play. It will be fun to see who wins the starting job between these QB’s not named Josh Rosen.

The aforementioned run game was severely laughable in 2019 and can only get better. New additions Jordan Howard and Matt Brieda bring a bit of low-level thunder and lightning to the mix. Neither will win you a championship but offer good plug and play options at affordable salaries (Howard $4.88 million and Brieda at $3.26 million). Howard will be the “starter” but Brieda offers more dynamic upside through the air and ground. Both are upgrades but are far from ideal to rely on other than depth for your team.

DeVante Parker finally had the breakout season that everyone was waiting for in 2019. Ranking an NFL fifth in yards (1,202) and fourth (9) in touchdowns last year, Parker finally lived up to the previous expectations of being a team’s number one receiver. He has above average separation skills with high end body control but is not a burner. Parker wasn’t seeing the lion’s share of the targets until after rookie Preston Williams went down with a torn ACL in week 9. Williams was a pre-draft villain but a preseason hero and had ample success in the first half of the season posting a 32/428/3 line. This was done on 60 targets with many of them coming from Josh Rosen. Williams is a great bench stash at just $588,000 and is expected to be on track to start week 1. As of now the rest of the depth chart is up for grabs. Keep an eye on super athlete UDFA Kirk Merritt if he makes the team. Mike Gesicki figures to have a nice role in the passing game as the big slot and should command relative usage to last year. Entering his third year, he hopes to continue to improve on his 51/570/5 on 89 targets line. He has no competition from tight ends and is the favorite to take over in 3 WR sets now that Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson have chosen to opt out for 2020. Gesicki carries a nice price tag of just $1.6 million this year and next and should make for a fine low end TE1 or high end TE2.

New England Patriots

HC: Bill Belichick

OC: Josh McDaniels

QB: Cam Newton, Jarret Stidham, Brian Hoyer, Brian Lewerke

RB: Sony Michel, James White, Damien Harris, Rex Burkhead, Lamar Miller, JJ Taylor

WR: Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, Mohamed Sanu, Damiere Byrd, Jakobi Meyers, Matthew Slater, Quincy Adeboyejo, Gunner Olszewski, Jeff Thomas, Devin Ross, Will Hastings

TE: Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene, Ryan Izzo, Rashod Berry, Jakob Johnson, Jake Burt

Brady is gone, an NFL high 8 players have decided to opt out due to COVID concerns, the enigmatic Cam Newton comes to town, but Bill Belichick is still in charge. Forget the narrative of can Brady win without Belichick and vice versa. That was so 2020 spring. It’s now into training camp and Mr. Bill has his hands absolutely full. Jarret Stidham was to be the heir apparent after Brady left for free agency. The organization threw a bunch of praise and confidence behind the young signal caller until they were able to get a read on Newton’s health. Now it appears that Newton is the next in line, not Stidham. Newton has been incredible when he is fully healthy. His legs may actually have been more of an asset than his arm at times. Not short on arm strength but at times waning in accuracy, nobody would ever accuse Newton of having Manning-like accuracy (Peyton, not Eli). At a mere $1.75 million, it’s a worthwhile “risk” to roster Newton and hope that he is fully healthy and grasps McDaniel’s offense quickly.

Sony Michel has landed on the PUP and is a serious candidate to not begin the season on the active roster. He has buyer beware written all over him with his lengthy injury history and uncertain usage in 2020. Carrying the ball 247 times with a meager 3.7 YPC and just 2.56 yards after contact, Michel’s injuries slowed him considerably and the fact that he is not at all a receiving threat (19 catches in 2 years) you would be best to look away this year. White on the other hand, has been dynamic. Entering his 7th season after being selected in the 4th round by NE, White is an ideal player to utilize as a first up off the bench RB for your Dynasty Owner squad. At $4 million, he is at a reasonable price for expected production while averaging 13.2 fantasy points the past two years which is ideal for a mid-round fantasy contributor. Rex Burkhead (1 yr./$3 million) is a better real-life football player and will siphon touches from fantasy relevant players such as Damian Harris. Harris is a name to watch to ascend the depth chart especially with Michel’s recovery from surgery. The 2019 3rd rounder from Alabama is in a great position to contribute as the early down back and at a $907,00 price tag, he could be a valuable addition to your team. Late edition Lamar Miller is an indication that Michel is possibly not as far along in his rehab that most believed. Coming off an ACL tear from a year ago, Miller has the three down skill set to once again muddy the waters of a Patriots backfield depth chart.

Julian Edelman is the accomplished veteran of the wide receiver group, but he comes with a big ole’ caution tag. He will be 34 years old and recovering from shoulder surgery going into this season. He has had fantastic fantasy years on his resume, but the 2020 season just might not be one of them. His production absolutely fell off a cliff at the end of last season and will be entering training camp for the first time without Tom Brady since 2009. He was on an incredible pace last year and did see 154 targets, but he took a beating as the only reliable receiver for Brady. At $7.75 million and with his career coming to a close, your draft capital would be wisely spent elsewhere. N’Keal Harry ($2.5 million) hopes to become the true #1 receiver for NE and his 1st round pedigree should be put to the challenge. Harry is a big bodied (6’2”/228lbs) receiver that was targeted heavily in the red zone in his 5 starts last year and projects to fulfill the same role in 2020 due to the lack of competition at the position. His upside is tremendous, and the opportunity is there, if he can take a step forward in his sophomore campaign, he could be a steal in this year’s drafts. Mohamed Sanu is another veteran presence that should start outside opposite Harry with Edelman in the slot. New England traded a 2nd round pick last year to get Brady another weapon in the passing game but it never quite panned out for Sanu. He battled injuries and was cast out to the perimeter after seeing the slot for most of his career. He too is recovering from surgery (ankle) and hopes his time spent playing catch this offseason with Newton will pay dividends this season.

Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd are two names to monitor and both have shown flashes in pre-season play. Meyers was a part time player in 2019 pulling in 26 receptions for 359 scoreless yards. He figures to return to his role as the 4th or 5th receiver if the top 3 are ready to go. The Tight End position is as murky as ever with the probable top two tight ends being rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene now that Matt LaCosse has opted out. Asiasi is the probable starting traditional tight end where Keene will serve in the H-Back role. You won’t be breaking the bank with either of the 3rd round selections at $1.1 million a year and it could be a good time to get in while their stock is low.

New York Jets

HC: Adam Gase

OC: Dowell Loggains

QB: Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, David Fales, James Morgan, Mike White

RB: Le’Veon Bell, Frank Gore, Lamical Perine, Kenneth Dixon, Josh Adams, Trevon Wesco

WR: Breshard Perriman, Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Braxton Berrios, Josh Malone, Vyncint Smith, Jeff Smith, Jehu Chesson, Lawrence Cager, George Campbell

TE: Chris Herndon IV, Ryan Griffin, Daniel Brown, Ross Travis

Sam Darnold enters the pivotal year three for a QB this season. The third year is often the time teams will plan to draft a QB’s replacement before year four or to commit to the QB for a contract extension. Held to 13 games last year due to illness, Darnold improved on nearly every category from his rookie year where he also played 13 games. He did not have a stellar 2019. He averaged one interception and 2.5 sacks per game while throwing 19 TD’s. Darnold has not had the best supporting cast in his two years with the Jets so you really can’t blame him entirely but his draft pedigree (2018 3rd overall) should warrant a more stable outcome. His O-Line is completely different, and he has a new wide receiver in Breshard Perriman to work with after losing Robby Anderson to free agency. His $7.5 million salary is digestible but hopefully he would not be needed to win you any weeks. Joe Flacco was brought in to replace Luke Falk after last year’s stretch of embarrassment when Falk filled in for Darnold when he had Mono.

Adam Gase was not particularly good at hiding his displeasure for the signing of Le’Veon Bell last offseason. This year, Gase has talked him up saying “He’s been working extremely hard and looks good.” Thanks coach, we appreciate the news flash. Gase’s history shows that he prefers a committee backfield which is apparent going back to his Denver, Chicago, and Miami days as the OC and then HC. This backfield may be a bit rough to put a committee together though with Frank Gore, Lamichael Perine and possibly Kenneth Dixon. Bell should once again see most snaps and he possesses the three down talent that is coveted in fantasy football. At a hefty $13 million price tag, he carries the salary of a RB1, but you would be much more comfortable with him as your RB2. Gore may have been brought in for veteran leadership or a specific role, but he should not receive volume work at this point of his career if anything was to happen to Bell. Rookie Lamichael Perine is worth a stash due to his three down ability as well as two fading running backs in front of him on the depth chart. At just $1 million, those are the types of players that you can hold onto and hopefully they pop while at that salary.

Gase likes rolling out three receivers more than most play callers in the NFL. The problem is his starters in these 3WR sets are some of the weakest in the NFL. Crowder is the most talented and was a favorite of Darnolds while operating mainly out of the slot. He is a good route runner and helps his QB by always working back to the ball and finding soft spots in coverage. Perriman showed that he could operate as a WR1 when he filled in for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missed time last year for the Bucs. But his small sample size as a starter is eclipsed by his disappointing years with Cleveland and Baltimore after being selected 26th overall in 2015. Only time will tell if he will be asked to shoulder the load of a WR1 or is he to be a deep threat compliment opposite Rookie Denzel Mims. Mims is a deep threat himself as well as being an accomplished contested catch receiver. His senior bowl practices turned enough heads to get him on team’s boards, but it was his explosive combine that led him to being drafted in the second round. At $1.35 million, he is one of the rookie receivers that could garner you an early return.

Chris Herndon returns after a forgetful sophomore campaign marred by a suspension and injuries. He figures to be a key piece of this offense with the ability to challenge for top two or three in targets for the Jets. He was a breakout candidate last year after posting 39/205/4 as a rookie in 2018. Now fully healed, he looks to bounce back as a post-hype fantasy player that is a solid TE2 for your team at just $793,000.  Veteran Ryan Griffin filled in for Herndon last year and nobody was brought in to compete for the job making Herndon an intriguing player to watch as he has been flying under the radar in drafts this summer.

That is the AFC East! We hope you enjoyed the read. Check back soon! We will continue with the NFC East next week.

Follow us on Twitter: @CKWolf21 and @Dynasty_Owner

Are Dynasty Owners’ Utilizing Handcuffs for Their Star Players?

Author: Steven Van Tassell

Surely everyone is aware of the terminology and know that a handcuff is a backup player who will likely take over for a team’s starter in the event of an injury. In addition to “regular” injuries that happen all of the time to NFL players, Dynasty Owners in 2020 also have to worry about players testing positive for COVID-19 and going on the new Reverse/COVID-19 list. This new list is defined as being for players who have tested positive, or players who are quarantining because they came into close contact with someone who tested positive.

One of my fellow Beta Users (Nick – Quaranteam) suggested that I look at whether Dynasty Owners were valuing handcuffs for their star players enough in 2020 due to COVID-19. The possibility is out there that some star players will contract the contagious disease and have to sit out games at some point this season. It’s not a minimum of three games as previously expected, but more flexible than that as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk explains in the following article: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/07/18/clarifying-the-2020-injured-reserve-covid-19-rules/.

Since 12-team leagues are new to Dynasty Owner for 2020, we don’t have historical data to see whether handcuffs are being utilized more or less this season than last year, but we can still look at what’s going on this year. This analysis of handcuffs is based on a review of 43 Dynasty Owner drafts for the 2020 season. All of the drafts were conducted between June 14th and July 26th. There were 5 drafts by Beta users, 15 For the Love of the Game drafts by players only paying the $29 entry fee, 11 drafts in the $600 prize pool leagues ($50 entry fee per team) and 12 drafts in the $1,200 prize pool leagues ($100 entry fee per team).

For the purposes of this analysis, I’m looking at situations where there is a clear starter (Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, etc.) and then a backup who will likely only play if their team is winning or losing by a lot or if the starter gets hurt or is placed on the COVID-19 list. I purposely left out players on teams and positions in which the starting position is up for grabs, which is more of a hedging your bet on a certain position. Examples of that include starting QB for the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers as it’s reasonable to think either Justin Herbert or Tyrod Taylor could be the starter in Week 1, the Ravens’ RB situation with Mark Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins or the Rams who have a quartet of RBs (Cam Akers, Darrel Henderson, Malcolm Brown and John Kelly) who coach Sean McVay has identified as “NFL-legitimate starting-caliber backs”. There are other examples but that should give everyone an idea of what qualified as a handcuff versus hedging your bets.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

Handcuffing by Position and League Type

Overall, there were 300 identified handcuff situations over the 43 leagues analyzed, or an average of 6.98 per league. Teams could draft more than one handcuff for their players, and we’ve identified several interesting ones later on in this article. Since we are all in 12-team leagues now, that means only about half of the teams in each league drafted a handcuff for one of their players. There are multiple situations in which a team drafted more than one handcuff, so the average number of teams drafting a handcuff is lower than the number of situations.

By league type, there were more handcuffs per league in the $100 entry fee leagues (8.00 per league) than any other type by a significant margin (6.64 for $50 entry fee leagues, 6.60 for the $29 Love of the Game leagues and a low of 6.40 for the five Beta user leagues). The more cash people have invested in their Dynasty Owner team, the more likely they are to handcuff – very interesting. For newer players, Beta users are free for life and don’t pay anything in return for spending last year and this off-season spotting bugs in mock drafts and on the website and app.

By position, it’s not surprising that more people are drafting a handcuff at the running back position than any other position (141 in total, or 47% of all handcuffs are RBs). There were 104 WR handcuffs, or about one-third (35%). There were 38 handcuff QBs, or 13% of the 300 handcuffs, while only 17 handcuffs (6%) were TEs.

In terms of players, 74 individual star players were handcuffed with a lesser player. Thirty-one WRs were handcuffed, or over two-fifths (42%) of players handcuffed were WRs, followed by 19 RBs (26%), 16 QBs (22%) and a mere 8 TEs (11%). Let’s find out more about who was handcuffed most frequently and wasn’t frequently enough.

Running While Handcuffed

The position in which most fantasy football players utilize handcuffs is usually running backs based on their higher rate of injury and the current preference of many NFL coaches for running back by committee (RBBC). Dynasty Owner is no different in this regard as nearly half of the handcuffs in the early drafts were RB handcuffs with 19 starting RBs being handcuffed by 37 backups. Remember that we are looking only at handcuffs and not situations like those identified earlier where the starting job is “up for grabs”.

So, which RB was handcuffed the most in Dynasty Owner drafts? Was it the RB with the highest salary in Dynasty Owner, Ezekiel Elliott at $15 million in salary cap room, or was it one of the top two RBs drafted in Christian McCaffrey (ADP 2.6) or Saquon Barkley (ADP 3.8)?

The answer is: None of those guys. There was a tie as the most handcuffed RBs were in fact Dalvin Cook of the Vikings and James Conner of the Steelers, both of whom were handcuffed in 15 Dynasty Owner drafts. While both were handcuffed the same number of times, the most common handcuff was picking Conner and his $790,381 one-year contract along with Jaylen Samuels and his equally affordable $679,517 salary for the next two years.

Dalvin Cook and his threatened training camp holdout was big news back in early June when he announced it (Spoiler alert: He didn’t hold out and reported to training camp on time) and likely caused many of his Dynasty Owners to handcuff him with either Alexander Mattison (8 times) or Mike Boone (6 times). There was at least one team (Wasabi) who handcuffed Cook with both of those guys.

There was also one team (The Team) who handcuffed Cook, who they drafted with the #12 overall pick, with fullback C.J. Ham and his 4-year, $12 million salary. Ham was drafted with the first pick in the 20th round by The Team in their For the Love of the Game league. This wasn’t a wise pick for The Team since Mike Boone was still available if they wanted a handcuff. Ham is so lightly regarded by other Dynasty Owners that no other team has Ham on their roster. Probably because he’s a blocking fullback and had just 37.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last year.

Two players on one-year contracts were also handcuffed nearly as often (14 times each). Kenyan Drake and his $8.483 million contract was handcuffed equally by Chase Edmonds and rookie Eno Benjamin. Joe Mixon was also handcuffed 14 times, but was handcuffed by four separate players (Giovani Bernard – 7 times; Trayveon Williams – 4 times; Rodney Anderson – 2 times; Jacques Patrick – 1 time). The four handcuff players were the most for any single starter. Congratulations!?!

Handcuffing the Top Picks at QB

In contrast, the most obvious handcuff at QB is drafting Robert Griffin III to pair with Lamar Jackson, who many Dynasty Owners have been taking with the #1 pick (ADP 1.3). Dynasty Owners who have chosen Lamar are handcuffing him with RGIII more than any other QB combo with 7 Dynasty Owners having done this. Interestingly, even though there were 15 For the Love of the Game drafts analyzed, none of the Lamar-RGIII handcuffs occurred in one of those leagues. For those Dynasty Owners who have Lamar and $2 million in salary cap room, RGIII is currently available in 50% of Dynasty Owner leagues.

That’s three more handcuffs than the trio of starting QBs who are next most likely to be handcuffs (Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton and Carson Wentz). Mahomes is has the second best ADP (1.8) with 4 handcuffs (3 times by Chad Henne and 1 time by Jordan Ta’amu). All three of the potential Kansas City backup QBs are highly available for Mahomes’ owners who have salary cap room to protect their investment in the $450 million Super Bowl MVP.  Ta’amu is owned by the highest percentage (11%), followed by Henne at 7% and Matt Moore at only 2% ownership.

Despite not being signed by the Patriots until late June and only being selected at his new salary in the July drafts, Cam Newton was also handcuffed four times by backups in New England. Three Dynasty Owners chose Jarrett Stidham as Newton’s backup, while one chose Brian Hoyer. Even though Coach Bill Belichick has said that Newton won’t be handed the starting job, he’s the starter in New England barring an injury. For Newton’s Dynasty Owners who didn’t handcuff in the draft, but are thinking about it doing it now, sorry to inform you but Stidham and his $788,423 contract isn’t available in any Dynasty Owner leagues right now.

Finally, we have four Dynasty Owners who handcuffed Carson Wentz and his $32 million annual salary with rookie QB and 2nd round draft pick Jalen Hurts. Even though only a few Wentz owners chose Hurts as well, Hurts and his $1.5 million salary is 100% owned, compared to 78% ownership for Wentz. Wentz does have a better ADP (80.7) than Hurts (152.9). Nate Sudfeld, who might end up being the true backup in 2020 if media reports are true, is only owned in 2% of leagues. You’ll need $2 million in salary cap room to go get Sudfeld if you have Wentz but not Hurts, are concerned about Wentz’s injury history and want to ensure you have a stake in the Eagles’ offense this year.

The only other two first round QB draft picks – Kyler Murray (ADP 4.3) and Deshaun Watson (ADP 5.0) – were lightly handcuffed with only one Dynasty Owner handcuffing Murray with his likely backup in Brett Hundley and none of the Dynasty Owners who drafted through July 26th handcuffing Deshaun Watson. The owner who drafted Hundley (The Guns of Hochuli – great team name!) is the only one right now with Hundley on their roster.

Not a Lot of Handcuffing of Tight Ends

At the other end of the handcuff spectrum from RBs and QBs are TEs who are rarely being handcuffed in the early Dynasty Owner drafts. Only 8 starting TEs had their backup drafted by the same Dynasty Owner and it only occurred a total of 17 times, accounting for just 6% of all handcuffs drafted.

The consensus top three Dynasty Owner TEs (George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews) were rarely handcuffed by their Dynasty Owners even though they had clear backups at the time (Ross Dwelley for Kittle, Ricky Seals-Jones for Kelce and Nick Boyle for Andrews). Nobody handcuffed Mark Andrews and only one Dynasty Owner handcuffed Kelce or Kittle. Steveo FC was the only Dynasty Owner to draft both George Kittle and Ross Dwelley, in case Kittle can’t play, even though Dwelley performed pretty well in the two games (22.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) that Kittle missed in 2019. Dwelley only cost Steveo FC a last round draft pick (#291 overall) and $750,000 in salary cap room. In case Kittle owners are thinking that having Dwelley on the roster is a good idea (even with the recent signing of Jordan Reed by the 49ers), he’s currently available in 96% of Dynasty Owner leagues. Kelce was also only handcuffed in one league by Kilmer’s Coyotes with Ricky Seals-Jones. Seals-Jones doesn’t cost much ($925,000) and is only signed to a one-year deal so Kelce owners in the three-quarters (78%) of Dynasty Owner leagues in which Seals-Jones isn’t owned could go out and grab him if they have cap room.

The most handcuffed starting TE is the eighth TE being drafted, on average, in Dynasty Owner – Evan Engram of the Giants. His backup Kaden Smith is being drafted well over 100 spots later than Engram (ADP of 79 vs. 201.8 for Smith). His cost is minimal as he has 3 years left on his contract at just $680,002 per year and his production was high in place of Engram last year, when he averaged just under 11.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy point per game and had four double-digit point games in just seven contests after Engram got injured last year.

The Single Most Handcuffed WR Is Also the Highest Drafted One

Michael Thomas is being drafted a full round ahead of any other WR with an ADP of 7.6. The next highest drafted WR by ADP right now is Chris Godwin with a current ADP of 20.3. Thomas has the third highest salary of any WR at $19.25 million and some of his Dynasty Owners are backing up their investment in the Ferrari of WRs (373.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019). The handcuff of choice for Thomas’ Dynasty Owners, like The Jerk, is Deonte Harris who only had 34.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019 – with twice as many coming from returns (23.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) than rushing and receiving combined (11.5). Six Dynasty Owners have both Michael Thomas and Deonte Harris on their roster, the most of any single WR starter and backup. Since Taysom Hill is listed as a QB, I didn’t consider him as a handcuff for Thomas even though he does play WR fairly frequently.

While the Thomas-Harris handcuff was the single, most frequently drafted one, Thomas was not the most frequently handcuffed WR in Dynasty Owner drafts. That honor goes to Eagles rookie WR Jalen Reagor who was handcuffed 9 times by three different players (Quez Watkins – 4 times; Greg Ward – 4 times; John Hightower – 1 time), followed closely by Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills. Three backup WRs (Gabriel Davis – 4 times; Duke Williams – 3 times; Isaiah Hodgins – 1 times) were also selected by the Diggs’ Dynasty Owner a total of 8 times, just one fewer time than Reagor. However, if you add in Diggs’ fellow starting WRs in Buffalo (John Brown and Cole Beasley), there were a total of 11 backup WRs selected as handcuffs to starting Buffalo WRs.

Eleven handcuffs for Buffalo WRs was the highest for any team, but there were three WRs being handcuffed. There are a lot of top WR pairing out there for the handcuffing, such as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Tampa Bay or A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati, among others. Interestingly, there was a wide divergence in handcuffing for those two pairs with Green and Boyd being handcuffed twice as frequently as Evans and Godwin (10 times versus 5 times). There was an even split by Dynasty Owners handcuffing Green (and his $17.97 million salary) and Tyler Boyd (who has a $10.75 million salary). The much more expensive WR in Tampa Bay, Mike Evans, was handcuffed four out of the five times that a Dynasty Owner handcuffed one. Just only Dynasty Owner (WKFLD Jags) handcuffed Chris Godwin with Tyler Johnson.

Interesting Handcuffs

After looking at over 500 Dynasty Owner rosters, you see some “interesting” handcuff situations. Here are a few that stood out to me as I was looking at all of those rosters:

  • The Cincinnati Sizzlers drafted five Green Bay WRs, pretty much every WR on the Packers roster, except Davante Adams. That’s right they have Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Reggie Begelton and Jake Kumerow (in draft order). That’s the most players from any one team at a single position. Fortunately for them, they didn’t draft Devin Funchess even though they could have since they drafted in June before he opted out for the 2020 season.
  • Stacking three Bengals on one team was not an isolated phenomenon. Two teams in $100 entry fee leagues (Flex and SBB) drafted the same three Bengals RBs (Joe Mixon, Trayveon Williams and Giovani Bernard). They both even got Williams and Bernard with the same picks (#249 and #273 respectively). Another two teams (Toronto Squad and Young & Dumb) had three Bengals WRs. Toronto Squad drafted A.J. Green, Tee Higgins and Auden Tate, while Young & Dumb went with Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and John Ross. Young & Dumb loves Bengals since they have those three WRs, two RBs (Mixon and Bernard) and rookie QB Joe Burrow.
  • TFFO figured that he wanted a piece of the New England running game, so they went out and drafted Sony Michel, James White, Damien Harris and J.J. Taylor. Rex Burkhead went undrafted in that league and at the end of the draft, TFFO had a little over $7 million in cap room. To avoid Rex having hurt feelings about this situation, TFFO should spend part on their leftover cap room if they still have it. Might as well go get Lamar Miller while you’re at it.
  • Not to be outdone, Boomer2377 drafted four Eagles WRs. They avoided both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey for good reason and went with Jalen Reagor, Hightower, Ward and Watkins in that order. I’m guessing Boomer2377 is an Eagles fan because they also have both Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts on their team as well.
  • Only four TEs had their backup drafted by the same team in more than one Dynasty Owner league. In addition to Engram, they were Darren Waller (handcuffed by Foster Moreau), Tyler Higbee (handcuffed by rookie Brycen Hopkins) and Austin Hooper (handcuffed by David Njoku). All these handcuffs were drafted twice.
  • The Clown Punchers took my recommendation of drafting three QBs (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/05/draft-tips-2020/), but possibly didn’t read the part about having them on different teams since they decided to draft three Kansas City QBs (Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne and Jordan Ta’amu). Hopefully, Mahomes stays healthy and Matt Moore isn’t the backup, or The Clown Punchers will be in trouble.
  • Many Dynasty Owners like a good handcuff, but Pohlcat, a $100 entry fee league Dynasty Owner, really, really likes to handcuff backfield players. Pohlcat drafted Lamar Jackson and RGIII, Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley, Todd Gurley and Ito Smith, plus two potential Giants backups to Saquon Barkley in Dion Lewis and Wayne Gallman. No word on why Pohlcat didn’t handcuff any WRs or TEs.
  • Does it count as a handcuff if you draft the backup before the starter?  Asking for Ball Busters who drafted Quintez Cephus of the Lions with the #153 pick then took the starter in Detroit, Marvin Jones, over 100 picks later on with the #256 pick.
  • Finally, the Midwest Tradesman spent only $34 shy of $33 million, or 30% of their salary cap, on Bengals WRs when they drafted Tyler Boyd ($10.75 million), A.J. Green ($17.971 million) and John Ross ($4,278,966).

Conclusions

There are a lot of ways to handcuff your starters in Dynasty Owner, but really no consensus on which one is best or which starters are most worth a handcuff. It’s your Dynasty, handcuff your guys if you want to and with who you want. This analysis covered 43 Dynasty Owner leagues with over 500 teams that had 300 identified handcuffs of 74 different players. That’s a lot of variety, but also indicates that there are a lot of Dynasty Owners who, even in this era of COVID-19, aren’t handcuffing.

In terms of position, running back was the most handcuffed position and by league, Dynasty Owners in $100 leagues were most likely to utilize handcuffs. We had a surprise RB (James Conner) be the most handcuffed player overall, even though he has an ADP of 49.8 and is the 26th RB off the draft board on average. The top QB (Lamar Jackson) and WR (Michael Thomas) were more heavily handcuffed than other players at their position, but in line with other high draft picks like RBs Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. And if you handcuffed a TE, you are a rare breed indeed as I only identified 17 TE handcuffs in total, or half of leagues has a team with a handcuffed TE.

We are less than a month out from the 2020 NFL season and three are more articles coming from myself and Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21 on Twitter). The podcast series with myself and Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer will continue to be posted on the Dynasty Owner channel on YouTube and other places (iTunes, Spotify, Spreaker) as well. Subscribe to the YouTube channel and make sure to “Like” all of the videos to help promote them. We have over 400 subscribers on YouTube now and thank you all for watching and listening. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

Roster Roundup – Round Four: NFC South

Taking A Dive Into The Rosters From Around The League

Author: Chris Wolf

This time of year is typically the time when teams, trainers and agents hype up their players. We know how the world has changed in recent months and the NFL is no different in its approach to returning to “normalcy”. With the news of NFL staff and players testing positive for the Coronavirus, fantasy news is taking a backseat. As a result, fantasy players are missing out on the typical hyperbole surrounding pre-season roster news and notes.

In this series we’ll take a look at who’s who on rosters and how that may help in your drafts and early waivers.

Each week we’ll examine a division’s skill position current roster and predictive depth chart heading into training camp to see how that relates to their fantasy outlook.

Atlanta Falcons

HC: Dan Quinn

OC: Dirk Koetter

QB: Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Kurt Benkert, Danny Etling

RB: Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, Qadree Ollison, Ito Smith, Craig Reynolds, Mikey Daniel, Keith Smith

WR: Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Russel Gage, Laquon Treadwell, Christian Blake, Olamide Zaccheus, Devin Gray, Brandon Powell, Jalen McCleskey, Juwan Green, Chris Rowland

TE: Hayden Hurst, Khari Lee, Jaeden Graham, Carson Meier, Jared Pinkney, Caleb Repp

Matt Ryan is as reliable as they come. He has only missed one game in the last 10 years and unfortunately, is often overlooked. In the last decade, he has only one season where he hasn’t topped 4,000 yards. Ryan has also eclipsed 300+ yards in the 64 games he’s played. That is an insane rate of production for the 35-year-old out of Boston College. Ryan has a ton of targets in the passing game and should find his way back into the top 12 in QB scoring. The rest of the QB depth chart is very underwhelming with veteran Matt Schaub as the #2. Former LSU QB turned WR turned QB, Danny Etling is also present but has an uphill battle to make the team.

Todd Gurley is on a one-year contract valued at $5.5 million. He and his hefty contract were dumped by the Rams and one day later, Atlanta scooped him up to replace Devonta Freeman. Gurley is incredible when healthy and he is a true every down back when healthy. Health is a major concern when considering rostering Gurley. His arthritic right knee coupled with a history of an ACL tear, turf toe, and ankle sprains all are reasons for concern for Gurley. But, when he’s good, he’s really good. He is a natural pass catcher with an average of 9.6 yards per catch during his five-year career, he has also posted gaudy (again, when healthy) yards per carry averages of 4.8, 3.2, 4.7, 4.9, 3.8. Yards per carry is an overblown metric but it does tell a story here that he is elite when his body allows him to be. Still just 25 years old, he is hopeful to put together a solid season that extends his life in his home of Georgia.

Behind Gurley, there is little to be excited about. Ito Smith may be the first one up before Brian Hill, but both had their chance when Freeman went down last year. Smith is the shiftier of the two with better receiving chops and Brian Hill is between the 20’s guy to move the chains. The problem is…neither were effective when given the opportunity last year. Hill left all fantasy owners in the dust that took a chance on him in 2019 with 1.83 YPC in his two starts. Qadree Ollison is their goal line banger but is too one dimensional for much more.

Julio Jones is the best receiver in the NFL. There doesn’t need to be a debate, he wins. Yes, Michael Thomas had an extremely impressive season, but nobody does it better than Julio. He has 57 career TD’s, 55 games with at least 100+ yards and has amassed an incredible 12,125 yards. Just for perspective, Julio Jones’ 12,125 career yards is the equivalent of running from New Jersey to California 5 times over. He’s a beast and he’s primed for another solid campaign in 2020. As good as Jones is, he is the highest priced receiver around at $22 million per year. Calvin Ridley is a special talent and everyone with a voice is comparing his upcoming season to a Chris Godwin-like breakout. Ridley has already made an impact on this team in his first two seasons. So far, he has been targeted over 90 times, has over 60 receptions, went over 800 yards and has 17 touchdowns in two years. Those efficiency numbers are crazy for 90ish targets a year. In order for him to “breakout”, he will have to assume some of the 133 vacated targets from Austin Hooper and Mohamed Sanu. Russel Gage is an undervalued player in fantasy that could be in for an expanded role from his 69 targets in 2019. He trumps Ridley in reception percentage, drop rate, and yards after catch. That doesn’t mean Gage is in any way a better receiver, it means he operates on different parts of the field and route tree. Keep an eye on him when filling out the end of your bench. The Falcons have brought in former 1st rounder Laquon Treadwell and will attempt to get some value out of him as their 4th/5th receiver.

Austin Hooper was a target vacuum operating as Matt Ryan’s safety valve. He was lost in free agency to Cleveland, so the Falcons went out and traded 2nd and 4th round picks for Hayden Hurst in March. Hurst is a capable athlete and moves well for his size (6’4”/250lbs) and will fill in nicely as the intermediate pass target. A former minor league baseball player in the Pirates organization, Hurst walked on to South Carolina and set school records as a tight end in just his second year. He is 27 years old next month and is set to become a big part of this high-octane passing game. Hurst is a fantastic value at $2.8 with this year and next left on his contract.  Graham and Lee will be his direct backups and barring injury, will have a hard time with fantasy production.

Carolina Panthers

HC: Matt Rhule

OC: Joe Brady

QB: Teddy Bridgewater, Will Grier, PJ Walker

RB: Christian McCaffrey, Reggie Bonnafon, Jordan Scarlett, Mike Davis, Rodney Smith, Alex Armah

WR: DJ Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Pharoh Cooper, Seth Roberts, DeAndrew White, Brandon Zylstra, Ishmael Hyman, Omar Bayless, Damion Jeanpeire JR, Keith Kirkwood, TreVontae Hights

TE: Ian Thomas, Chris Manhertz, Temarrick Hemmingway, Colin Thompson, Giovanni Ricci, Cam Sutton

Rookie head coach Matt Rhule is known for turning college programs around. He has his work cut out for him with the team that he inherited in Carolina though. With an abysmal 2019 defensive showing, the Panthers used every one of this year’s draft picks on defensive players. This team is in search of a new identity since the departure of 9-year head coach Ron Rivera, and franchise cornerstones Greg Olsen, Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly.

Rhule isn’t alone in the team’s rebuild, they also brought in new OC Joe Brady who served as the passing game coordinator for the National Champions LSU. The Panthers certainly have talent at the skill positions with fantasy star Christian McCaffrey, 2020 breakout WR DJ Moore, and newly acquired Robby Anderson. There should be plenty of opportunities for new QB Teddy Bridgewater to hike the ball in comeback mode. Bridgewater is a competent QB on a team friendly salary ($21 million/3 years) without much competition behind him. Will Grier got thrown into the fire last year as a rookie and did not perform well. It appeared it was too much too soon for the young Grier. Hopefully better days are ahead for him, but he will have to fight off XFL standout P.J. Walker for the NO.2 spot behind Bridgewater. Walker reunites with college coach Rhule after serving as the face of the XFL. He is a dual threat in both the pass and run game and is an intriguing player to add to the watch list especially since Bridgewater has only played a full 16 games once in 5 seasons in the NFL.

Christian McCaffrey is one of those players that you can build a team around in both real life and fantasy football. He is loved by his teammates and coaches for his incredible work ethic and he is just plain fun to watch. With him you get a RB1 and a WR1 in the same package. In his three seasons in the league, his rushing and receiving yards have gone up each year as well as his touchdowns, rush attempts, targets, yards per game and yards per catch. He is a fantasy owner’s dream with these incredible stats, and he is one of the last bellow backs playing over 92% of the snaps over the past two seasons. If you are comfortable with his $16 million per year salary, get this guy on your team. His backup predicts to be Reggie Bonnafon but apparently veteran journeyman, Mike Davis is also in the mix for the role of fantasy’s least used reserve running back.

The receiving group is led by 2019 breakout D.J. Moore. Moore’s target total was good for 10th in the league while having Will Grier and Kyle Allen under center. With what should be a pass heavy offense, Moore is sure to improve on his 87/1,175/4 line from 2020. Moore ($2.8 million/3 years) is a prime example of top talent meets low cost in Dynasty Owner. Joining Moore is former Jet Robby Anderson. Anderson was also coached by Rhule in his days at Temple University. Anderson’s 15 YPC are elite in NFL terms but he doesn’t quite mesh with Bridgewater’s style of play. Teddy B is not known for his downfield throwing prowess but hopefully that all changes this year. The often-overlooked Curtis Samuel rounds out the starting Panthers’ receivers and we can only hope this coaching staff can tap into Samuel’s potential. He is a dynamic playmaker that just seemed to play out of position the last few seasons. He is uniquely capable of being a sure-handed possession type receiver as well as going down field. It is now Ian Thomas time. Greg Olsen had a fantastic career as a Panther. He has since moved on to the Las Vegas Raiders, opening the door for the freakishly athletic Ian Thomas. Thomas was drawing attention as early as his rookie year training camp. Entering his third year, the former fourth round pick is poised to take a big leap as a full time starter after filling in admirably for the oft injured Olsen.

New Orleans Saints

HC: Sean Payton

OC: Pete Carmichael

QB: Drew Brees, Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, Tommy Stevens

RB: Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Ty Montgomery, Dwayne Washington, Taquan Mizzell, Ricky Ortiz, Tony Jones Jr, Mike Burton

WR: Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, Austin Carr, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Juwan Johnson, Marquez Callaway, Krishawn Hogan, Emmanuel Butler, Tommylee Lewis, Maurice Harris

TE: Jared Cook, Josh Hill, Adam Trautman, Garrett Griffin, Jason Vander Laan, Cole Wick

The Saints may just have the best overall team on paper. They are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and are a favorite to go deep into the playoffs. Sean Payton has done an incredible job as head coach and play caller in his 13 seasons as head coach. The Saints are perceived to be in win now mode and they just might have the roster to award Payton with his second Lombardi trophy.  The team’s heart and soul reside with the player that wears #9. Drew Brees is iconic and has done more for the Saints organization than any other player in their history. His rapidly declining arm strength is a problem since that was always a big part of his game, but Payton adjusted accordingly the last two years and it has worked out well so far.

Brees is a bit of a Jekyl and Hyde when it comes to home/road splits. When he is home playing in a dome, he’s a must start in fantasy. When they are away is when things get dicey. He scores nearly four less fantasy points when he is away. Things may even out a bit in 2020 considering that he may not be taking so many deep shots by design. Brees’ salary is mid-range at $25 million and is in the range of Brady, Carr, Rivers. A big downer for Brees is Taysom Hill’s presence in Red Zone packages. Used more as a runner/receiver than a passer, Hill is a serious threat when the ball touches his hands. He more closely resembles a TE than a rushing QB, Hill is a gritty player that has a high price tag for a sub package QB. Rounding out the mentionable QBs is Jameis Winston. The former Buccaneer has a notorious 2019 season and was handed his walking papers by Bruce Arians and co. He signed an extremely modest deal to learn under Payton and Brees and hopes to turn his career around in 2021.

The running game again figures to be the focal point of the Saint’s offense. Kamara is a game changer but was hampered by back, knee and ankle injuries last year limiting him to just 14 games. Not only does he get the starter’s share of carries, he also averages 6 catches per game in his career. Expecting a return to form, Kamara is expected to return to top 3-5 RB status and offers a great one-year rental rate of less than $1 million this year. Latavius Murray was the number one back in fantasy when he was covering for Kamara in his 3 missed games last year. When given a chance, he could be a monster back behind this beast of an offensive line. The problem is; this offense hasn’t generated enough touches for Murray to be a viable start with a healthy Kamara in the lineup. Yes, Kamara and Mark Ingram were both top 6 fantasy back in 2017 but they also didn’t have a mature Michael Thomas soaking up 149 receptions. Ty Mongomery expects to be Alvin Kamara’s direct handcuff for 2020. Montgomery is a fun player to watch because he has the natural hands of a receiver but the running ability of a running back. Now liberated from Adam Gase’s rule, Montgomery might just niche himself a nice role in an offense led by a coach that may actually know how to use him.

This passing attack goes through one man. Michael Thomas has set an NFL record for most receptions (470) and receiving yards (5,512) in the first four years of his career. He is a true target monster that hauled in an incredible 149 receptions for 1,725 yards on an insane 80.5% catch rate. All of those metrics were NFL bests in 2019 and his receptions were good for an NFL best all-time! He figures to pick up where he left off last season but now, he has legitimate help across from him. Emmanuel Sanders proved many wrong last year as he quickly rebounded from a 2018 Achilies injury to produce a line of 66/869/5 while kicking in three 100-yard games during his stay with Denver and then San Francisco. Sanders is a spry 33-year-old that is sitting on a 2 year $16 million and is a low ceiling yet viable option in this Saints highly efficient offense. Tre’Quan Smith figures in as their WR 3-4 and the Saints are still holding out hope that he begins to put it together. Once touted as their answer to their WR2 search, Smith is long on athleticism but has yet to find all of the pieces to complete the puzzle. Often appearing lost and running the wrong routes, Smith will need to do more to make an impact in 2020. An intriguing prospect is Juwan Johnson out of Oregon by way of Penn State. At 6’4” and 230lbs, Johnson is a jump ball leaper with crazy good hands but unpolished route running. If he can clean up his game, he is someone to keep one eye on.

Jared Cook is on his 5th team in 11 NFL seasons. He eclipsed his career best 6 TD’s by scoring 9 times last year. He is a much needed big-bodied red zone threat in this offense but is somewhat limited between the 20’s with the chain-moving targets going to Thomas (188) and Kamara (104). Cook will continue his role in 2020 as a reliable red zone target and should see minimal competition from fellow TE’s Josh Hill (35 targets in 2019) and rookie Adam Trautman. Trautman is a future No.1 tight end in the NFL that may not need too long to acclimate to pro football life. PFF has graded him out as the #1 receiving talent in this year’s TE class and 2018’s as well. With training camp restrictions and no pre-season, it may be difficult for Trautman (or any rookie) to see an expanded early season role, especially in the receiving game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC: Bruce Arians

OC: Byron Leftwich

QB: Thomas Brady, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Griffin, Reid Sinnett

RB: Ronald Jones II, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Dare Ogunbowale, LeSean McCoy, Raymond Calais, TJ Logan, Aca’Cedric Ware

WR: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scott Miller, Justin Watson, Tyler Johnson, Spencer Schnell, Jaydon Mickens, Travis Jonsen, Codey McElroy, Cyril Grayson, John Hurst, Bryant Mitchell, Josh Pearson

TE: Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate, Tanner Hudson, Anthony Auclair, Jordan Leggett

If there is an NFL team that is built to win now, it’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On the surface, the Buccaneers are racing against father time to win the second Super Bowl in franchise history. Tom Brady appears to have two years (at $25 million) left before hitting the links and Bruce Arians and Rob Gronkowski are sure to be right behind him. The coaching staff appears to have worthy successors but the QB room does not. Ryan Griffin is a locker room favorite that has shined in the preseason over the years, but he has never been elevated to No.2 on the depth chart, except for injury. Blaine Gabbert’s claim to fame was the unseating of Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco right before “the kneel”. He was a former Rivals.com 5-star recruit before landing in Missouri and has since bounced around between five NFL teams while owning a 48-47 TD to INT ratio. Brady is the GOAT and is sure to want to silence critics by winning yet another championship, this time without Bill Belichick. He has an enormous amount of talent surrounding but an even greater source of experience to draw from. As I tweeted back in April:

That is an insane number of trips to the endzone for these starters.

The running back position is a bit murky, but they do have a capable group. Ronald Jones bounced back nicely last year after a forgetful rookie season. He was held to a committee role with Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale last year but that just may be what he is cut out for. When given the chance, he brought the juice to Barber’s molasses and gave the offense a shot in the arm with his big playmaking ability. Coming out of USC in 2018 he was criminally compared by some scouts and tauts to Jamaal Charles. Charles was a natural pass catcher and Jones was not. The breakaway speed is comparable, but the similarities end there. Jones did progress in the passing game last year when given the opportunity but the 3rd down role was owned by Ogunbowale.

Vaughn was most likely not the ideal pick at RB for Arians but it’s who they went with. He was an every down back at Vanderbilt and he can do a fine job in the run, pass and pass protection categories but he is a master of none. He’s not a punisher like Jonathan Taylor nor is he a pass catching specialist like CEH or Swift and he doesn’t have the playmaking ability of Cam Akers. Although, he just might have what it takes for this offense and that’s becoming a role player, not a superstar. This team is full of household names but that might not be needed when lining up behind Brady. Brady loves checking down and passing to his backs but what he loves more is keeping a clean jersey. Late edition, LeSean McCoy may help out here but is no lock to make this team after signing at the vet minimum for 1 year $1 million. Whichever back steps up in that department will certainly get their fair portion of the snaps.

The strength of this offense has been the receivers since Mike Evans ($16.5 million/4 years) came aboard in 2014. The strength continues in 2020 with his fellow Pro Bowl teammate Chris Godwin and up and coming talent like Scotty Miller, Justin Watson and Tyler Johnson. This is very good depth with Evans and Godwin obviously leading the way. Godwin is extremely versatile and can play inside or outside. He is equally tough playing off ball with his blocking as he is with the ball in his hands. He is working on a very attractive salary in 2020 at $821,000 and should be one of the first receivers off the board in drafts. Miller is an electric player with crazy straight-line speed, but he is being typecast as strictly a slot receiver by those outside of the organization. He and big slot Justin Watson figure to duke it out for WR3 honors while possible steal of the draft Tyler Johnson gets up to speed. Johnson was rated with PFF’s highest receiving grade in college football in 2018 and 2019. His college efficiency was off the charts improving every year leading to an impressive senior year where he averaged over 100yds and a TD a game while posting a 71.1 catch rate. He was overlooked in the pre-draft process allegedly for a falling out with a coach(s) but he has proclaimed that he will outperform everyone’s expectations.

On paper, this tight end group just isn’t fair. They have enough talent and experience for two NFL teams. The Bucs like to keep 6 receivers but may be forced to keep 5 if Calais wins the return job, they may not need to keep a sixth WR and instead use the roster spot on another TE. Gronk is the only lock but Howard and Brate don’t look like they are going anywhere anytime soon. Auclair is the long snapper, occasional FB and in-line blocker as well as locker room favorite. Hudson is a coach’s favorite that played very well in preseason last year and the coaching staff already said that he would have a role on this team. That would be five tight ends on the roster making the Chicago Bears very jealous.

That is the NFC South! We hope you enjoyed the read. Check back soon! We will continue with the AFC East next week.

Follow us on Twitter: @CKWolf21 and @Dynasty_Owner

Roster Roundup – Round Three: AFC South

Taking A Dive Into The Rosters From Around The League

Author: Chris Wolf

This time of year is typically the time when teams, trainers and agents hype up their players. We know how the world has changed in recent months and the NFL is no different in its approach to returning to “normalcy”. With the news of NFL staff and players testing positive for the Corona Virus, fantasy news is taking a backseat. As a result, fantasy players are missing out on the typical hyperbole surrounding pre-season roster news and notes.

In this series we’ll take a look at who’s who on rosters and how that may help in your drafts and early waivers.

Each week we’ll examine a division’s skill position current roster and predictive depth chart heading into training camp to see how that relates to their fantasy outlook.

Houston Texans

HC: Bill O’Brien OC: Tim Kelly

QB: Deshaun Watson, AJ McCarron, Alex McGough, Nick Tiano

RB: David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Buddy Howell, Karan Higdon, Scottie Phillips, Cullen Gillaspia

WR: Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, Randall Cobb, Kenny Stills, Keke Coutee, Steven Mitchell Jr, DeAndre Carter, Chad Hansen, Isaac Whitney, Isaiah Coulter, Tyler Simmons

TE: Darren Fells, Jordan Thomas, Jordan Akins, Kahale Warring, Dylan Stapleton

With the departure of DeAndre Hopkins, this is now clearly Deshaun Watson’s team. There aren’t too many other NFL QB’s as clutch as Watson. He is a gamer whose leadership will be on center stage this season. He doesn’t have a true Alpha WR this season so it will be up to him to make quicker, more assured choices without Hopkins as his safety valve. McCarron is a competent clipboard holder and is on his 4th NFL team since starring at Alabama. 

David Johnson’s short time as a fantasy stud is nearing an end. He has caught unlucky breaks with seemingly unrelated injuries over the last few years, but he is in a great situation to go out with a bang. The former Cardinal was a top 5 running back in the first 5 games of last season, injuries struck, and he appeared to come back too soon as we all witnessed his horrible performance before being shoved aside for Kenyan Drake. Fast forward to 2020 where Johnson claims to be fully healed and the Carlos Hyde-less Texans have 245 vacated rushing attempts. If the 28-year-old still has any juice left, he could be in for an ample workload.

His receiving skills are a bit redundant with Duke Johnson also in the mix. Duke Johnson did pull down a respectable 52 grabs on 72 targets for 463 yards and 3 TD’s. He was only targeted outside of 10 yards just once on the year, so he clearly operates in the shallow flat/check-down zone. Carlos Hyde only caught 14 catches for 65yds. So, this backfield may be hard pressed to find targets for their RB group even with the 168 vacated targets of Hopkins.

Which brings us to my next point; Bill O’Brien likes opening up the longball by lulling you to sleep with a grinding run game and short passing game. This team has a few guys that will go deep.  The newly acquired Brandon Cooks figures to operate as the #1 option in the passing game. The same Brandon Cooks that is coming off of his worst statistical season as a pro and is on his fourth team since entering the league in 2014. He is a dangerous player with the ball in his hands, but he has an unfriendly contract and is concussion prone. Will Fuller has been the team’s resident deep threat and he is a threat. Tyreek Hill is possibly the only other NFL receiver that absolutely crushes DB’s as well as Fuller can when going deep. Fuller is a gamble every year due to mostly lower body injuries but when he hits, he hits. He is a bonafide week winner, but you have to take the bad with the good and be willing to gamble.

Randall Cobb is another new arrival and is a sneaky good pick if you’re looking for a somewhat affordable short-term option. He is the fourth highest paid receiver on his team, and he will operate in the same area of the field as the departed Hopkins. Coming off a nice season in Dallas, Cobb could be primed for decent usage. Kenny Stills is a good player but will be pushed down the depth chart. The coaching staff seems to absolutely loathe Keke Coutee and his best days as a Texan could be behind him. The tight end group is a moderately skilled one, but it lacks high level talent. Darren Fells put up 7 TD’s, good for third best in the NFL and a 71% catch rate. Jordan Akins could be considered the chain mover of the group. 2018 pick Jordan Thomas was supposed to operate as the starter in 2019 but his season was cut short due to a rib injury. Thomas is an absolute monster of a human being, but he will need more quality playing time to move up the depth chart. Second year TE Kahale Warring is the future of this group but is essentially a rookie again after sitting out his first year due to injuries (concussion, hamstring). He is currently working out with Deshaun Watson during the pandemic along with Cobb, Cooks and Coutee.

Indianapolis Colts

HC: Frank Reich OC: Nick Sirianni

QB: Philip Rivers, Jacobey Brissett, Jacob Eason, Chad Kelly

RB: Marlon Mack, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Darius Jackson, Bruce Anderson III, Roosevelt Nix

WR: TY Hilton, Michael Pittman JR, Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson, Artavis Scott, Daurice Fountain, Dezmon Patmon, Chad Williams, De’Michael Harris, Rodney Adams, Malik Henry, Ashton Dulin

TE: Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox, Matt Lengel, Xavier Grimble, Farrod Green, Ian Bunting

The Colt’s settled on Philip Rivers after kicking the tires on several other QB’s early in free agency. They knew they had to upgrade from Brisset who admirably performed to his ceiling in 2019.Rivers is as tough and fiery as they come but his arm strength was noticeably declining last year. The Colts will rely more on his experience and leadership than his statuesque athleticism and arm cannon. Rivers is known to be a millisecond slow on his reads, often “after-throwing” his open receiver but he doesn’t care. He will fire it in there anyway which bodes well for bigger targets like Jack Doyle and Michael Pittman JR. His 2019 numbers were ho-hum at best but that was under a ho-hum coaching staff. His 4615 yards were good for fourth in the NFL and his TD/INT ranked 15th (23) and 3rd(20) respectively. He is an upgrade over Brissett but in no way should be relied on to help your fantasy team except for a bye week.

If you are a Colts fan, you had to come away with a smile after this year’s draft. The running back position was a bit of a mess and was a tad underwhelming last year despite having an elite offensive line to block for them. By selecting Wisconsin stud RB Jonathan Taylor in the second round, the offense got really exciting. Marlon Mack is a respectable player and he does run hard, but he will never be a bruiser. Taylor is violent and fun to watch. He and Mack should form a solid committee and Taylor’s presence is sure to make Mack a more efficient runner. Nyhiem Hines is the passing game specialist and is sure to get game scripted out of many contests this year. Talented? Absolutely. But this team does not utilize him as the Bears use Cohen. Hines is used more situationally than rotationally like Cohen. Rivers does love checking down, but I really believe that Mack could be more of a benefactor of those passes this season than in years past.

There is room to grow after a tough season for Colts receivers last year. T.Y. Hilton topped the group with just 45 receptions and 5 TD’s. Zach Pascal led the team in yards with just 607 on the season while also hauling in 5 TD’s. There isn’t much talent on the depth chart but there is cause for excitement with the drafting of Michael Pittman JR and the return of Parris Campbell. T.Y. Hilton has been the de facto #1 receiver for some time now and has performed but we know he’s not the most consistent week-to-week fantasy producer. Hilton’s Base salary is the highest on the team at $14,542,000 and is looking at free agency after the 2020 season. The big bodied Pittman joins the team and is slated for the “X” receiver position in Frank Reich’s offense. At 6’4” 225lbs, he will be a welcome addition and a big target for Rivers. He has drawn numerous comparisons to Vincent Jackson and that is pretty high praise for the rookie from USC.

Parris Campbell returns after seeing mixed playing time in just seven games due to injuries as a rookie. The Ohio State product projects to man the slot while Pittman and Hilton operate the perimeter. There was a lot of excitement going into this crafty route runner a year ago and hopefully the former second round pick is fully healthy for the start of the season. Filling out the rest of the possible depth chart are Zach Pascal, Marcus Johnson and Dezmon Patmon if they keep 6 WR’s. Pascal performed above expectations last year and provides quality depth at the position. Johnson is a deep threat that was just re-signed and Patmon is a rookie out of Washington State that is a quick receiver that comes from a pass heavy offense. The tight end position is once again anchored by Jack Doyle. Doyle is one of the most boring picks you can make but he consistently produces. He delivers as a low end TE1 to high end TE2 and shouldn’t be cast off this year especially with the tight end loving Rivers throwing the ball. The athletic but underperforming Trey Burton figures to resume his role in Frank Reich’s offense of a move tight end while the massive man known as Mo Allie-cox will continue his role contributing as the TE3 for the Colts.

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC: Doug Marrone OC: Jay Gruden

QB: Gardner Minshew II, Mike Glennon, Joshua Dobbs, Jake Luton

RB: Leonard Fournette, Chris Thompson, Devine Ozingbo, Ryquell Armstead, Tavien Feaster, James Robinson, Nathan Cottrell

WR: DJ Chark, Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, Laviska Shenault Jr, CJ Board, Keelan Cole, Collin Johnson, Josh Hammond, Terry Godwin, Michael Walker, Marvelle Ross

TE: Tyler Eifert, Josh Oliver, Charles Jones II, James O’Shaughnessy, Tyler Davis, Ben Ellefson

The legend of Gardner Minshew got a boost when the Jaguars traded away Nick Foles. New OC Jay Gruden seems pleased with his new QB stating “(Minshew) has got the intangibles you want in a quarterback”. Minshew was a 6th round pick and was thrown into the fire week one when Foles left with a broken clavicle and the mustached legend was born. He finished with a 6-6 record while proving that he was capable of putting a team on his back and showed his toughness and grit. He was the 10th ranked QB under pressure and had the highest QB rating in the NFL when throwing deep. He appears to be safe at the moment with not much of a starting threat behind him on the depth chart. But when the Jags are picking in the top 10 (or higher) range in next year’s draft, they may find it incredibly difficult to pass on one of the big three QB prospects.

Fournette is coming off of one his best years as a pro. Keeping the injuries at bay, he played in 15 games, running for 1152 yards while catching 76 passes for an additional 522 yards. The only bad part of his 2019 campaign was the lack of TD’s (3). He was the centerpiece of this offense but was supposedly being shopped last spring. If he remains on the team, the receptions are sure to take a hit with pass specialist Chris Thompson joining the team. Thompson reunites with Gruden and like Fournette, has struggled with injuries. Ryquell Armstead is someone who the dynasty world was keeping an eye on during the Fournette trade talk and he should be kept on watch lists. He didn’t offer much as a rookie, but he also didn’t get much of an opportunity with Fournette commanding the bulk of the snaps. Ozigbo, like Armstead, has the frame to handle a heavier workload if anything were to happen to Fournette. Additionally, at 225lbs he turned in a 4.54 forty at his Nebraska Pro Day prior to last season.

DJ Chark became the go-to receiver in his second year in Jacksonville. After boasting only 14 receptions as a rookie in 2018, he came down with 73 grabs for 1008 yards and 8 touchdowns.   It was a true breakout year for the young receiver and Gruden has already said that he’ll be used in every position in the receiving game. Dede Westbrook was the next receiver in line with 66 catches for 660 yards and 3 touchdowns. He figures to maintain a similar role in 2020 as the longest termed Jag in the receiving corps. The #3 receiver is Chris Conley who quietly had a career year with high in both receptions (47) and yards (775).  He offers big play potential while also showing his reliability as a route runner.

Laviska Shenault is an excellent athlete and could prove to be a very dangerous weapon in the NFL if used right. Coach Doug Marrone promised to line him up all over the field which always sounds good. Shenault’s versatility was showcased in college albeit in limited fashion. Nearly ¾ of his receptions were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage with many coming from bubble screens. His injury history is a bit concerning due to the pummeling he received in his quick pass role while at Colorado. If given touches in space, allowing him to use his athleticism, he could be a wildcard for fantasy position eligibility in the next few years. Tyler Eifert and Josh Oliver are the notable tight ends for Jacksonville. Eifert was a former scoring machine when he was with Andy Dalton in Cincinnati. He offers a good, reliable veteran presence with a nose for the endzone. Oliver is the more athletic of the two and should be the future TE1 on this team. He is a natural pass catcher with upper-end athletic talent. Although he missed much of 2019 due to a back fracture, the coaching staff has been quick to point out that he will be a big part in this year’s passing game.

Tennessee Titans

HC: Mike Vrabel OC: Arthur Smith

QB: Ryan Tannehill, Logan Woodside, Cole McDonald

RB: Derrick Henry, Darrynton Evans, Dalyn Dawkins, Khari Blasingame, Shaun Wilson, Senorise Perry, Cameron Scarlett

WR: AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, Trevion Thompson, Cody Hollister, Kalif Raymond, Nick Westbrook, Kyle Williams, Cameron Batson, Kristian Wilkerson, Rashard Davis, Mason Kinsey

TE: Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firsker, MyCole Pruitt, Cole Herdman, Parker Hesse, Tommy Hudson

Ryan Tannehill capped off his impressive season from backup to leading the team to the AFC championship game with a four-year $118 million salary and $62 million guaranteed. That was a huge payday from the Titans for a position of uncertainty the last few years. Marcus Mariota was to be their future but never really put it together in Tennessee. Tannehill delivered when he got the call off the bench. More than just a game manager, he did well under pressure and pushed the ball down the field when needed. He was PFF’s #1 rated QB with a 91.0 passing grade while throwing for 22 TD’s and rushing for another four.

Derrick Henry’s contract was the talk of the early offseason. He is set to perform under a $10.2 franchise tender in 2020 but both sides are looking to get a contract done sooner rather than later. Henry is an absolute monster and has the build to take a beating as the NFL’s premier grinder. He led the league in attempts (303), yards (1,539), and tied for 1st in touchdowns with 16. He also chipped in 18 catches for 206 yards and 2 TD’s. Undervalued as a passer, the Titans have been looking elsewhere for backfield pass catchers. Pairing Henry with former Titan Dion Lewis made for an interesting duo but Lewis never seemed to fit in Tennessee’s scheme.

In the 2020 draft, the Titans went out and selected Appalachian State’s Darrynton Evans in the third round. Evans offers versatility in the run, receiving, and return game. He is a decisive runner and will lower his pads but lacks the wiggle and big play threat ability. What he does offer is reliability. With just 2 fumbles in nearly 600 touches, he is a sure runner that avoids big hits but doesn’t avoid contact. He is a fantastic complement to Henry since he is accomplished in different facets of the RB game.

The 2019 Titans were not exactly a passing juggernaut, but they were fairly efficient. Rookie standout AJ Brown led the way with 1051yds on only 52 receptions. He sported an outstanding YAC total of 462yds, good for 6th best in the NFL as well totaling 8TD’s tied for 7th best. Brown’s yards per reception were equally impressive at 20.2yds per clip and his 38 first downs on 52 receptions equals a stud in the making. Brown’s production was what the Titans had hoped for when they drafted Corey Davis in round 1 (5th overall) in 2017. Davis has been just eh so far but has the skills and athleticism to put it together if he can just find that missing ingredient. So basically, he is the Mitch Trubisky of wide receivers. In the three years Davis has been with the Titans, he has amassed 157 receptions, 2,033 yards and just 9 TD’s. After declining his fifth-year option, the Titans are forcing Davis to prove he is worth keeping beyond 2020.

Adam Humphries is the elder of the Titans receivers at 27 years old. He was a coveted free agent after the 2018 season when he departed Tampa to join Tennessee. The former Clemson product was third in the team in receiving snaps while operating almost exclusively in the slot. Tied with Jonnu Smith for third on the team with 41 receptions, Humphries is a good NFL receiver shackled in a run-first offense. Speaking of Jonnu Smith, many are excited about his potential for this year after his mini breakout in 2019. He set career highs in receptions (41), yards (498), TD’s (4) and first downs (18). You would like to see your #1 TE with a slightly higher 1st down to reception ratio but this will be his first year as the true #1 and he certainly has the talent to fit the bill. Anthony Firkser is the #2 TE and showcased his red zone ability by bringing in two touchdowns in this year’s playoffs while averaging 8.5 yards per target. He won’t see much volume in the passing game but will receive his fair share of snaps along with H-Back MyCole Pruitt in the run heavy scheme of Mike Vrabel’s Tennessee Titans.

That is the AFC South! We hope you enjoyed the read. Check back soon! We will continue with the NFC South next week.

Chris Wolf is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner.

Follow us on Twitter: @CKWolf21 and @Dynasty_Owner

Who Wants to Draft a Non-Millionaire Player? – Part 1

Author: Steven Van Tassell

In the draft tips article from last week, finding value was the top recommendation. So, the next question is what players are going to give you enough value and help you win your Dynasty Owner league championship in 2020 and beyond. If you’re like Ricky Bobby and just focus on 2020 (“If you’re not first, you’re last”), then there are a lot of players who you can draft this year who have low salaries and will likely produce enough Dynasty Owner fantasy points to help you win now.

If you want to be competitive in both 2020 and beyond, there are still plenty of  players with contracts of under $1 million per year who are signed now for more than just the 2020 season. In fact, there are too many players to include in just one article. We’ll look at QBs, RBs and WRs first, then focus on TEs and kickers in the next article.

At RB, Phillip Lindsay only earns $575,000 and both Aaron Jones and Chris Carson make less than $651,000 per year, but all three of them only have one year left on their rookie deals. Alvin Kamara is a first round pick who also just fits under the $1 million figure with his 2020 salary of $964,443. Chris Godwin ($821,041 salary) was the #3 overall WR in Dynasty Owner in 2019 and a legitimate first round 2020 pick, but he’s only under contract for that salary for one more year. Cooper Kupp and Kenny Golladay are expected to be early round selections as well and also make less than $1 million, but both are only signed for 2020.

We won’t mention any of those players in this article, or players who just miss the $1 million cutoff, such as Bears RB David Montgomery who was picked in the third round of the 2019 draft and has a Dynasty Owner salary of just north of $1 million ($1,003,845 to be exact). Same with two Pittsburgh WRs (Diontae Johnson and James Washington) who should benefit from the return of Ben Roethlisberger both of whom make slightly over $1 million per year.

These non-millionaire guys with multiple years left on their rookie contracts may not be the ones who, by themselves, win you your 2020 Dynasty Owner league championship. To win, you’ll need them to contribute enough to provide some help at the minimum from your Bench or as a Bye Week Starter. Their contribution could also be more subtle as a guy who provides depth, but more importantly, saves your Dynasty Owner team some salary cap room to be able to afford those expensive, impact players who will help you win.

All stats are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution.

Backfield Limitations

If you are looking for one of these non-millionaire guys at either QB or RB, you’ll need to grab him earlier in your Dynasty Owner draft than you might think he’s worthy of being drafted as there are only four of them. Here’s how they rank in order (with salary figures):

  1. Devin Singletary (RB – BUF – $974,500 thru 2022): Now that Frank Gore has moved on to the Jets (why Frank?!? – just retire gracefully instead of as a backup for the Jets), Singletary is the starter in Buffalo for a team that ranked seventh overall in rushing yards in 2019. Sure, the Bills might pass more this year after adding Stefon Diggs or rookie Zack Moss might vulture some yards and TDs. However, unless you think Moss will overtake Singletary sometime this year, Singletary’s the first non-millionaire backfield guy to grab.
  2. Gardner Minshew II (QB – JAX – $677,721 thru 2022): Minshew is the Man in Jacksonville after being the backup last year and taking over when Nick Foles got injured. The Jaguars traded Foles and his $22 million per year contract to Chicago, so Mike Glennon is the backup to Minshew and unlikely to overtake him in training camp. Maybe the Jaguars sign Cam Newton, but if not, Minshew’s the starter and could be a valuable Bench QB or bye week starter. That’s really good for under $700,000.
  3. Tony Pollard (RB – DAL – $796,945 thru 2022): Pollard might be the backup to Ezekiel Elliott, but he’ll get the ball enough to keep on your Bench weekly in the hopes that he has a great game or two when the Cowboys are leading (or losing) by a lot and want to save Elliott. He had three of those games in 2019 in which he averaged 22.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. And if Elliott does get injured, Pollard becomes the starter in Dallas and gets inserted into a lot of Dynasty Owner lineups as either a RB or FLEX. He’s worth a spot on your roster even if you don’t own Elliott.
  4. Jarrett Stidham (QB – NE – $788,423 thru 2022): The G.O.A.T. is gone from New England and Bill Belichick appears committed to Stidham since he didn’t take a QB at all in the 2020 draft. The Patriots come into the 2020 season with Stidham, Brian Hoyer (only $1.05 million in Dynasty Owner salary) and two undrafted rookie free agents fighting for the third string spot. That’s it unless the Patriots suddenly have a change of heart and sign Cam Newton. Here’s hoping Stidham is the Steve Young of the Patriots (a Hall of Fame QB replacing another Hall of Fame QB) and not Hugh Millen, Tommy Hodson, or Marc Wilson (yes, those are the names of actual Patriots starting QBs in the early 1990s before they drafted Drew Bledsoe).

The rest of the non-millionaire QBs are expected to be backups in 2020, barring an injury, so we aren’t going to rank them. However, there are a few additional RBs who are lower-ranked backups or maybe third down, pass catching RBs who might be worth a Practice Squad spot as they are unlikely to contribute as a Starter or Bench player in 2020 unless the starting RB or RBs for their team gets injured. Several of them (Ito Smith in Atlanta, Alexander Mattison in Minnesota to name two) will find their way onto Dynasty Owner rosters as a handcuff to the starter, but they likely have limited value in 2020 barring injuries.

Receivers

There is a lot more value available at WR than QB and RB combined as 20 players meet our qualifications for inclusion on this list and we could have added more if we wanted. Let’s just limit ourselves to analyzing the top 12 of them (and list the other 8 in order) who should help your Dynasty Owner team in 2020 and beyond.

  1. Darius Slayton (NYG – $688,497 thru 2022): Finished the 2019 Dynasty Owner season as the #36 WR, which would make him a fringe starter in 12-team Dynasty Owner leagues for less than $700,000. Grabbing Slayton early will give you salary cap room to get productive veterans later on in the draft. Slayton had three games with 2 TDs in 2019 and more than 20.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. He might be the Giants #1 WR this year and if so, could be in for a bigger year than projected (216.8 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).
  2. Michael Gallup (DAL – $880,995 thru 2021): Despite the presence of rookie first round pick CeeDee Lamb, Gallup is projected to have more Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2020 than 2019 (238.1 vs. 212.7). He had nine games with 10.0 or more Dynasty Owner fantasy points last season, up from three in 2018, and two more 2019 games that just fell short (9.5 and 9.3 respectively). Gallup takes a hit here down to the #2 slot because of the presence of Lamb and Amari Cooper, but he’s still worthy of a high Dynasty Owner draft pick in 2020.
  3. Terry McLaurin (WAS – $961,918 thru 2022): McLaurin just comes in under the $1 million salary necessary to be included here. He may be the top WR and is projected to be the #15 WR overall in Dynasty Owner, but costs a little bit over $80,000 more than Gallup and nearly $275,000 more than Slayton. Plus, he has the worst QB situation of the top three with second year QB Dwayne Haskins likely under center in Washington, or Kyle Allen if Coach Ron Rivera wants to go with a guy he coached last year in Carolina. McLaurin averaged 12.6 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in seven games with Haskins at QB, lower than the 14.8 points per game in seven games with the other Redskins starting QBs (Case Keenum and Colt McCoy).
  4. Preston Williams (MIA – $588,333 thru 2021): Williams averaged 11.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game before a season-ending ACL tear in Week 9 versus the Jets. Did you know he had 24.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in that game and four other games with 10.0+ points in just eight games as an undrafted rookie free agent? He’s projected as the #66 WR in 2020 so he’s a fifth or sixth WR on your Dynasty Owner team, but one who could produce if needed for a couple of weeks based on what he did in half a season in 2019. All that production for just $583,333. Don’t wait too long to draft him or he’ll be gone.
  5. Russell Gage (ATL – $654,049 thru 2021): After the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots, Gage became a bigger part of the Falcons offense. He averaged 10.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points per game in the last nine games of the season, flashing his potential for 2020. The Falcons appear to be happy with their WRs as they didn’t draft any, so Gage should be locked in as the #3 WR in Atlanta behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. The Falcons did pick up Hayden Hurst to replace Austin Hooper at TE, but there should be plenty of receptions to go around with the passing offense ranked first in completions and third in yards in 2019.
  6. Steven Sims Jr. (WAS – $590,000 thru 2021): If you’ve read any of my off-season articles such as (https://dynastyowner.com/2020/02/available-players-2020/), then you know that I’m a big fan of Steven Sims Jr. It started when I saw him take a reverse 65 yards for a TD against the stout New England defense in Week 5 (a 33-7 New England victory in Washington that I attended. The Patriots defense held the Redskins to 223 yards of total offense). He also averaged 20.8 in the final three games of the 2019 season. Sims would be higher on this list if the Redskins hadn’t drafted both Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden in the 2020 NFL draft to compete with him for targets. Dirt cheap at just $590,000 for two more years.
  7. Hunter Renfrow (LV – $708,987 thru 2022): Another guy who emerged at the end of the 2019 season and would be ranked higher except for the fact that the Raiders took three WRs in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. He had 45.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points in Weeks 16 and 17 combined, but also had three other games with 10.0 or more points. Projected as the #45 WR in Dynasty Owner 2020 even after the Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards and will cost you less than each one of them, so he still has some value for Dynasty Owners.
  8. Tre’Quan Smith (NO – $855,131 thru 2021): The Saints passing offense had the second most completions and seventh most yards in 2019 despite having QB Drew Brees miss five complete games and most of a sixth game. Smith didn’t have great overall stats in 2019, but produced five receiving TDs (all from Brees) and almost all of his 74.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points with Brees at QB, so it appears that he has his QB’s trust. He’s listed as a starting WR on the current Saints depth chart along with Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. If Smith can step up and be a reliable #3 WR for the high-powered Saints passing offense, his Dynasty Owners will gladly pay $855,131 for his services in 2020 and 2021.
  9. Scott Miller (TB – $661,960 thru 2022): Miller is one of the three leading candidates for the third receiver spot in Tampa Bay, along with Justin Watson and rookie fifth round draft pick Tyler Johnson. Miller had two double digit Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 2019 and could have had two more but he wasn’t able to play in the final two games of the season. Both Tampa Bay starting WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out for the final two games as well, so big performances from Miller were possible in those games if he hadn’t gotten injured.
  10. Justin Watson (TB – $690,435 thru 2021): Watson is really the 9B to Miller’s 9A as Dynasty Owners who are bullish on the Tampa Bay passing game in 2020 with the G.O.A.T. under center might want to own both of these candidates for the #3 WR position in Tampa. Watson had two games with 15.0+ Dynasty Owner fantasy points at the end of the season when Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scott Miller were all out with injuries. However, he loses out to Miller for the 9 spot here simply because he has one less year on his contract and is almost $30,000 more in salary. That’s not a lot, but every dollar matters in Dynasty Owner.
  11. Olabisi Johnson (MIN – $648,572 thru 2022): No Stefon Diggs in Minnesota means the Vikings passing offense needs to replace a player who had 63 receptions, 1,130 receiving yards and 6 receiving TDs in 2019. They did pick up Tajae Sharpe in free agency and drafted Justin Jefferson in the first round of the 2020 draft and K.J. Osborn in the fifth round (it’s all about the U), so there’s plenty of competition for Johnson to replace Diggs. Johnson isn’t a dart throw, but for under $650,000 a year, he might be worth adding to your Dynasty Owner draft queue as a late round selection.
  12. Jakobi Meyers (NE – $588,333 thru 2021): There’s not a lot of depth at WR in New England after Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry, so Meyers could be in for a big role in 2020. He scored Dynasty Owner fantasy points in 11 of 16 regular season games in 2019. In addition, Meyers had a great connection with new Patriots QB Jarrett Stidham during the 2019 pre-season with 16 receptions for 216 receiving yards and a touchdown. Hopes are high in New England that this carries over into the 2020 regular season.

If this were college football or college basketball rankings, we’d have a section called “Others Receiving Votes”. Here are a few additional names to round out a Top 20 of WRs, who just missed out on making it into our Top 12:

13. Miles Boykin (BAL – $893,732 thru 2022)

14. DeSean Hamilton (DEN – $785,660 thru 2021)

15. Kelvin Harmon (WAS – $661,960 thru 2022)

16. Keke Coutee (HOU – $797,257 thru 2021)

17. KeeSean Johnson (ARI – $682,328 thru 2022)

18. Javon Wims (CHI – $638,978 thru 2021)

19. Damion Ratley (CLE – $663,467 thru 2021)

20. John Ursua (SEA – $650,668 thru 2022)

Conclusions

There are plenty of lower paid, productive WRs with multiple seasons left on their rookie contract, more than QBs and RBs. With 12 team leagues and 30-man rosters, all of these players should find their way into a Dynasty Owner roster this season. Every Dynasty Owner will have to mix in some of these players to be able to afford higher priced talent. The key is getting value out of these non-millionaire players, not just filling out roster space with minimum salary players who aren’t playing and are just occupying space on your Practice Squad.

In a “regular” dynasty league, these young players are important to own, but their importance is amplified in Dynasty Owner because of the $110 million salary cap. You can’t just have Russell Wilson ($35 million), Ezekiel Elliott ($15 million), Julio Jones ($22 million) and Travis Kelce ($9.4 million) on your Dynasty Owner roster and win unless you find some value players to fill out your starting lineup and Bench.

There was plenty of activity in the Dynasty Owner universe last week. If you didn’t watch it already, everyone should check out the YouTube Livestream mock draft from Friday morning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6m6ELEZQcQE). There are mock drafts going on constantly with some beta users setting up specific times to join and help calculate ADP for the 2020 drafts. We also two new articles recently from Milos Ljubic (@LjubicMilos on Twitter) and one from Chris Wolf (@ckwolf21 on Twitter) on Friday. All of this great content is available to help you win your Dynasty Owner league and maybe become the winner of the 2020 Chase for the Ring!

Steven Van Tassell is a freelance writer for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner