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By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)
Hello Dynasty Owners, and welcome to the “final stretch.” At the time of this article’s release, we will be 10 days away from the start of the 2021 season. The season will begin on Thursday, September 9th in a game that will pair the Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs the Dallas Cowboys. Like most of you reading this article, I can’t wait to get back to real NFL football.
As for today’s article, I’m going to recap some of the more important points I made in previous Contract Breakdown articles. This week I’m going to focus on the AFC and next week will be the NFC’s turn. Let’s start by talking about the AFC East first.
Contract Breakdown Recap
AFC East
In the Jets article, I did a blind player comparison with Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder. The takeaway from the comp was that Davis is an underrated dynasty player because he’s on a new team, is a late breakout player, and joins one of 2020’s worst NFL teams. Despite these issues, I project Davis to finish the season as a WR3. The early pre-season connection between Zach Wilson and Davis also gives me hope. Don’t let the 12.5 million dollar salary scare you away.
I compared Zack Moss to Ronald Jones in my Bills article.
| Player | Age | Points/Game | Rush | Yards | TDs | Salary |
| Z. Moss | 23 | 7.8 | 138 | 592 | 5 | $1,153,079 |
| R. Jones | 23 | 13.7 | 219 | 1,117 | 9 | $1,767,977 |
(All stats are based on a full 16 game average from the 2020 season)
The main takeaway is that Moss (3 years – $1,153,079) will command a heavier workload in 2021 than he did in 2020. He also has two more years remaining on his current contract than Jones does. Odds are that Ronald Jones will outscore Moss this year, but those extra years of a cheap salary is extremely valuable. At this point in their careers, I would rather own Moss.
For the Patriots article, I compared Damien Harris to Devin Singletary. I obviously did this prior to the news that Sony Michel was traded. While I don’t see the Michel trade making a large impact on Harris’ production, it will allow him to have more touches. The main takeaway from the comparison is that I would draft Harris over Singletary in Dynasty Owner, and nothing in the off-season has changed my mind. I would feel very confident going into the 2021 season with Harris as my third running back (top Bench running back).
The Dolphins article had a very tough comparison, and it was one that I struggled with as I was writing it. Not really much has changed for either player since publishing that article either. The comparison was Tua Tagovailoa vs Daniel Jones…
| Player | Age | Points/Game | Pass Yards | Rush Yards | TDs | Salary |
| T. Tagovailoa | 23 | 17.1 | 2,902 | 174 | 22 | $7,568,859 |
| D. Jones | 24 | 15.1 | 3,363 | 491 | 14 | $6,416,014 |
(All stats are based on a full 16 game average from the 2020 season)
In the end, I wanted Tua due to his age, overall upside and the fact that he has a longer salary than Jones. That being said, I do project Jones to outscore Tua in the upcoming season.
AFC North
The AFC North articles started with the Pittsburgh Steelers article where I lamented about James Conner. I was pretty long-winded about how Conner came into fantasy relevance, and my feelings on him, especially in the 2018 season. Much of my breakdown centered around the idea that he would be leaving the Steelers, but I didn’t speculate much on who his new team would be. It turns out that he was signed to a one-year contract a week after the Steelers’ article was published. While I still like Conner as a player, I am concerned that he will not receive enough volume with Arizona to be an RB2. In my opinion, Chase Edmonds will be the lead back for the entire year. This is not to say that Conner will have no dynasty relevance at all. He should be (and is) rostered in every Dynasty Owner league due to his cheap salary ($1,750,000) and injury upside. I wrote this at the end of the Steelers article in April, and I think it sums up my opinion on Conner very well…
“So, what do we do with him? We wait. I currently own Conner in my BETA league, and I am fine holding him until a new place of employment is discovered. He will still be on a lower-end running back contract, but Dynasty Owners need to accept the fact that he will not return his 2018 value ever again.”
The main player I touched on for the Ravens article was Gus Edwards. Edwards re-signed with the Ravens after he accepted a second-round tender. That tender comes with a contract of 1 year – $3,384,000. While I don’t see Edwards taking an exceptional amount of work away from J.K. Dobbins, I did say “Expect Edwards to continue to be a thorn in the side of J.K. Dobbins Owners.” (Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the J.K. Dobbins injury.)
When I wrote the Bengals article, I mainly gave a broad overview of some of the key free agents they had coming into the 2021 off-season. These players included A.J. Green, John Ross, Samaje Perine, and Brandon Allen. The majority of the breakdown I talked about Brandon Allen and how you may be able to get some spot starts out of him at the beginning of the season due to Joe Burrow’s continued rehab. Well, after four months has passed, it looks like Burrow is on track to play Week 1 against the Vikings. Still hold onto Allen as an insurance piece, but obviously don’t count on him to make an impact this year.
Here is what I wrote about Rashard Higgins in the Browns article…
“Like the majority of free agents this year, Rashard Higgins has been signed already. He re-signs with the Browns for a single-year contract. It is worth $2,377,500. Higgins found decent success after Odell Beckham Jr. went down with a season-ending injury in Week 6. In the games that Higgins played in, he totaled 7.5 plus fantasy points in all but two games. 7.5 isn’t a fantastic performance, but more often than not, that was his floor. In fact, he had very healthy fantasy performances to the tune of 12.1, 17.0, 21.5, 14.8 and 11.6 fantasy points. Unfortunately for Higgins Owners, OBJ looks to be returning to the Browns in 2021. This will bump Rashard down to the WR 3 on the team and limit the total volume he will receive. He should be rostered in all leagues as he has shown his ability to step in for an injured superstar.”
Really nothing has changed since I wrote this opinion. OBJ and Jarvis Landry look to come into the 2021 season healthy. While I like Higgins as a player, he will be buried behind more talented players on the depth chart.
AFC South
The AFC South was one of my favorite divisions to write about because I added a trade aspect to all four article breakdowns. Trades are a big part of Dynasty Owner, but I feel like sometimes they don’t get enough attention. The added component of salary and contract length make trades very unique in this format.
In the Colts article, I quickly did a contract breakdown on Carson Wentz (4 years – $32,000,000). Here is the summation of my thoughts…He is in a disaster of a contract (especially value-wise for Dynasty Owners). He is on a new team with a below-average receiving core. He injured his foot late in the offseason, had surgery, and has missed valuable training time with his new team. Before I go on a rant, let me be brief by saying he should probably not be rostered in DO, and I would trade him for just about anyone or any picks if you can find a league mate that wants him.
I wrote this about Anthony Firkser way back in March in my Titans article…
Firkser is 26 years old and will be a restricted free agent. He will make more money in 2021, but don’t expect it to be a lot. I’ll put him right around 3 million per year for now.
Trade Advice: With Firkser being available in one-third of Dynasty Owner leagues, I would check the Free Agent Auction first. If he is available and you have an extra spot, then I would pick him up. There’s no doubt he’s worth rostering for now. I can’t advise sending a trade for him. There’s just too much uncertainty with his many possible career paths. Hold if you own, and stay away if you don’t.
Firkser re-signed with the Titans to the tune of 1 year – $3,000,000 eight days after I wrote that article. Another thing that has changed is the fact that he jumped from 66 percent rostered to almost 98 percent at the time of this writing. It looks like those that held onto him are going to have a starting tight end for very cheap. Well done.
There were six total free agents, both Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) and Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFA), that I decided to speculate about in my Jaguars article. Of those six, only a single player re-signed with Jacksonville. His name is Dare Ogunbowale. Here is an update for where all six landed…
| Player | Previous Status | Team |
| Keelan Cole | UFA | Jets |
| Chris Conley | UFA | Texans |
| Chris Thompson | UFA | Free Agent |
| Dede Westbrook | UFA | Vikings |
| Tyler Eifert | UFA | Free Agent |
| Dare Ogunbowale | ERFA | Jaguars |
There isn’t a whole lot to talk about here. Dare is the only player remaining, and he will be buried on the depth chart behind James Robinson and Carlos Hyde.
The final team in the AFC South is the Houston Texans. The Texans article happened to coincide with the opening of free agency so I really didn’t have much space to talk about actual Texans. The one who I did mention was Will Fuller. At the time, we knew that Fuller was leaving Houston for Miami, but we didn’t yet know that the Dolphins were going to draft Jaylen Waddle. Regardless, Fuller will be sidelined for Week 1 due to a six-game performance-enhancing substances (PES) suspension. This suspension spans two seasons. Fuller is currently owned in 84.5 percent of Dynasty Owner leagues, and he looks to have a productive season with a $10,625,011 salary.
AFC West
For the AFC West articles, I incorporated my Top 10 players for each position. The Chargers article was appropriately paired with the Quarterbacks Top 10 because Justin Herbert came in as my number one quarterback. He barely beat out Kyler Murray for the top spot. In the end, the extra year on his contract and the more than two million dollar savings per year is enough to make him the number one quarterback moving forward.
| Rank | Player | 2020 DO Finish | 2021 DO Proj Finish | Years Remaining | Salary |
| QB1 | Justin Herbert | 9 | 5 | 3 | $6,644,688 |
| QB2 | Kyler Murray | 6 | 4 | 2 | $8,914,504 |
| QB3 | Joe Burrow | 24 | 13 | 3 | $9,047,534 |
The Chiefs article highlighted the Top 10 running backs moving forward. In my initial write up, I didn’t have any Chiefs’ running backs included on this Top 10. Unfortunately, CEH slips into the Top 10 with Cam Akers’ injury as Akers was listed as RB5 back in June. With that adjustment, this is what my current Top 10 Dynasty Owner running back list looks like…
| Rank | Player | 2020 DO Finish | 2021 DO Proj Finish | Years | Salary |
| RB1 | Jonathan Taylor | 6 | 3 | 3 | $1,957,287 |
| RB2 | Christian McCaffrey | 55 | 1 | 5 | $16,015,875 |
| RB3 | Nick Chubb | 11 | 6 | 1 | $1,845,774 |
| RB4 | Austin Ekeler | 28 | 9 | 3 | $6,125,000 |
| RB5 | Najee Harris | N/A | 11 | 4 | $3,261,862 |
| RB6 | J.K. Dobbins | 24 | 16 | 3 | $1,432,359 |
| RB7 | Saquon Barkley | 122 | 7 | 1 | $7,798,688 |
| RB8 | Dalvin Cook | 3 | 2 | 5 | $12,600,000 |
| RB9 | D’Andre Swift | 18 | 20 | 3 | $2,134,728 |
| RB10 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 21 | 14 | 3 | $2,705,393 |
(Editor’s note: This article was written prior to the J.K. Dobbins injury.)
For the Broncos and Raiders article breakdown, I combined both teams into the tight end Top 10. As you could have guessed, both teams have a tight end ranked on this list. Darren Waller still comes in as my TE1 due to his cheapish salary (at least compared to Kelce and Kittle) and his elite production. If I was drafting in a startup, I would take Waller first before any other tight end. To follow this up, I had the Broncos’ primary pass-catching tight end, Noah Fant, as my TE7. In my opinion, there are very clear tiers between the Top 10 tight ends. Here are the tier breaks…
| Rank | Player | 2020 DO Finish | 2021 DO Proj Finish | Years Remaining | Salary |
| TE1 | Darren Waller | 2 | 2 | 3 | $7,450,000 |
| TE2 | Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 5 | $14,312,500 |
| TE3 | George Kittle | 19 | 3 | 5 | $15,000,000 |
This is Tier 1. I could listen to and make an argument for either of these three to be the top ranked tight end.
| Rank | Player | 2020 DO Finish | 2021 DO Proj Finish | Years Remaining | Salary |
| TE4 | Kyle Pitts | N/A | 5 | 4 | $8,227,623 |
| TE5 | Mark Andrews | 6 | 4 | 1 | $863,290 |
| TE6 | T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 6 | 2 | $4,955,306 |
This is Tier 2.
| Rank | Player | 2020 DO Finish | 2021 DO Proj Finish | Years Remaining | Salary |
| TE7 | Noah Fant | 8 | 8 | 2 | $3,147,680 |
| TE8 | Irv Smith Jr. | 22 | 12 | 2 | $1,449,609 |
| TE9 | Mike Gesicki | 7 | 11 | 1 | $1,652,981 |
| TE10 | Dallas Goedert | 20 | 7 | 1 | $1,406,068 |
This is Tier 3. These tight ends start to get into the “crapshoot” area. You have already missed out on the elite fantasy players, but there is a chance one or all of these guys could break into the top tier within a few years.
Thank you for reading, and look out for my video that pairs with this article. Next week I will recap my breakdowns from the NFC. Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.
TheJerk