Category: Uncategorized

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Every year, there are players who seem to be impossible to rank. Many factors come into play such as a player’s age, a new team or new head coach. However, nothing makes it harder to assess a player than when they are coming off of a serious, career changing injury. Today, I am going to attempt to do just that. All five players who I discuss in this article will have dealt with an injury in the 2022 season, and they will be significant enough that it greatly affected their ability to produce fantasy value. As you can imagine, we will probably have a wide variance between the best and worst case for all of these guys.

If you want to see the other articles in this Best Case, Worst Case series, check out the NFL Draft scenarios article from before the actual NFL Draft, the rookie scenarios article after the NFL Draft was over and the most recent article about veterans from last week.

Let’s give it a shot…

Best Case, Worst Case

Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000)

Lamar finished as the QB16 last year. He missed five games at the end of the regular season. The missed games stemmed from a knee injury that should not be an issue for the 2023 season.

Jackson also is now the highest paid player on the Dynasty Owner platform at $52,000,000 per year. So, why am I concerned about his variance if he should be fully healed by Week1? The answer is partly his injury history and partly that he had contract/team issues prior to signing his new deal. I would assume most of the issues have been cleared up which is why I’m expecting a great season from Jackson.

Best Case: Jackson’s ceiling is being the QB1. While I am not predicting it, it is definitely possible. He would need a career year from Mark Andrews ($14,000,000) as well as a breakout by either Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853) or Zay Flowers ($3,509,109). He will also need to finish close to 1,000 rushing yards, which may not be possible anymore. This amazing statistical year would require Lamar to be the majority of the offense on the passing and rushing side. He would also have to be involved in more than half of the touchdowns for the Ravens’ offense, similar to what Jalen Hurts ($1,506,293) did last season. Possible, but not likely.

Passing Yards	Passing TD	Rushing Yards	Rushing TD	INT	DOFP
3,500	41	1,021	10	8	559.1

Worst Case: Worst case for Jackson is that Baltimore’s offense stays stagnant overall, and his rushing attempts plummet with injury concerns.  If his rushing baseline is eaten into, and he stays as a low volume passer, then he could find himself as a fringe QB1 yet again.

Passing Yards	Passing TD	Rushing Yards	Rushing TD	INT	DOFP
2,600	24	529	3	14	306.5

Breece Hall ($2,253,694)

Unlike Lamar, I think Breece has a somewhat narrow outcome path as long as he stays healthy all season. He played in seven games last season before suffering an ACL tear. As we have seen in the past, it can take high level running backs an extra season to get close to their pre-injury production. I’m not saying that will happen, but Dynasty Owners with Hall on their teams need to be aware that it’s possible.

Best Case: Best case for Breece is that he continues right where he left off last season. I have his average game production for his seven games as his absolute ceiling. If I project those games out for an entire season, this is what I get…

Rushing Yards	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
1,124	46	529	12	283.3

Worst Case: The worst case is that Hall’s injury recovery lingers into the 2023 season, and he takes a full season to get his explosiveness back. More rest time and the lack of him being a workhorse back could sink his fantasy value at least for this upcoming season.

Rushing Yards	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
710	37	332	5	171.2

Javonte Williams ($2,216,438)

The story for Javonte Williams will largely be the same as Breece. A knee injury sidelined both for the majority of the 2022 season. How they rehab from the injury will be the ultimate marker on what their first season after injury will look like. Williams is joined by Samaje Perine ($3,750,000) in the Broncos’ backfield this season.

Best Case: The best case for Williams is obviously that he is able to start Week 1 and complete all 17 games of the regular season. Even still, I see a low end RB1 as the upper limit this season.

Rushing Yards	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
1,001	33	300	10	223.1

Worst Case: The worst case for Williams is a truly disastrous one. Aside from the chance that he will not be ready for the start of Week 1, he may take a while to gain his “football form” back.  A successful start by Perine could take the pressure off of Williams to return quickly.

Rushing Yards	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
602	27	243	3	129.5

Like last week, today I will be doing a quick hitting section for the final two players in this article.

Calvin Ridley ($11,116,000)

Yes, I know. Ridley wasn’t injured last season and technically doesn’t qualify for this article. However, he missed the entire 2022 season, so the breakdown still applies. Ridley will receive passes from Trevor Lawrence ($9,198,372) for the first time in an NFL game this season. The variance for Ridley ranges from WR5 overall to being a WR3.

Best Case:  Best case is Ridley returns to his previous fantasy production from 2020. It may be a long shot for 1,400 yards and 9 TDs, but it is possible.

Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
92	1,356	9	281.6

Worst Case: Worst case is that Ridley can no longer perform as a high-level fantasy option, and he becomes the third best pass catcher for the Jaguars.

Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
68	804	3	166.4

Rashod Bateman ($3,149,853)

Bateman’s 2022 season ended prematurely when he was injured in Week 7. He should be completely ready for the start of the upcoming season.

Best Case: Bateman is the most likely wide receiver to lead the Ravens in receiving yards and touchdowns. He will need those predictions to hit in order for him to reach his best case scenario.

Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
71	909	9	215.9

Worst Case: Worst case for Bateman is that Zay Flowers immediately steps in as the best wide receiver on the team. This could be coupled with the idea that Mark Andrews continues to lead the team in overall receiving.

Receptions	Receiving Yards	Total TD	DOFP
57	678	2	136.8

Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, we officially have startup drafts and rookie drafts going on right now! I don’t know about you, but draft season is one of my favorite times of the year. Draft season is when we are all filled with hope, fun hot takes, and the selecting of the classic “my guys”. I wonder if the reason I love this time of year so much is because I grew up in Browns country, where March through August is when most around here are so optimistic. They plan their Super Bowl parade, and then real games happen, and all hope is lost. Now that my weekly shot at the Browns is out of the way, we can get on with this week’s article!

In today’s article I will be staying with the startup draft theme from the last couple of weeks and will be going a bit more in depth by looking at my favorite selection from each and every round of Dynasty Owner startup drafts, based on Average Draft Position (ADP), followed by a short explanation on each player. Buckle up folks, it’s going to be a long one!

All ADPs listed were current as of the afternoon of May 23rd.

1. Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) – 2 years/$7,704,910 – ADP 3.9

No surprise here! Ja’Marr Chase has been my number 1 guy from the start, and nothing has changed, Chase has been extremely consistent in the NFL, is tied to Joe Burrow ($9,047,534) long-term, and still has a couple years of contract flexibility left with two years remaining at his rookie salary, making him a great first round selection.

• Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) – 2 years/$9,198,372 – ADP 23.8

I am quite shocked to see Trevor Lawrence with an ADP below 12.0 as I thought he was a lock to be picked in the first round in Dynasty Owner startup drafts. Lawrence took a massive leap in year 2 under Doug Pederson and I am only expecting that to continue in year 3 with a better overall team around the young signal caller.

• Najee Harris (RB – PIT) – 2 years/$3,261,862 – ADP 30.1

I believe this may be the most surprising of all ADPs in Dynasty Owner drafts thus far. Running backs that see 20 touches per game are extremely hard to find now days and with two years remaining on Harris’ rookie contract, he has a price tag Dynasty Owners should be salivating over. Harris had a down year in 2022, but with an improved O-line and another year of experience for Kenny Pickett ($3,516,976), I am expecting the Steelers offense to take a step forward as a whole with Najee Harris leading the way.

• Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) – 3 years/$1,118,858 – ADP 37.6

Up next, we have another young workhorse running back who should be getting drafted much higher than he is in Dameon Pierce. Pierce looked excellent in his rookie campaign before his season was cut short due to injury. The Texans did sign Devin Singletary ($2,750,000), but I believe that was more of an insurance policy for Pierce than true competition. When Pierce is back and fully healthy, it should be wheels up for the Florida product.

• T.J. Hockenson (TE – MIN) – 1 year/$9,392,000 – ADP 59.9

Hockenson was Dynasty Owner’s second ranked tight end in 2022, despite only playing half a season in Minnesota and for some reason he is still being disrespected judging by his ADP. While I don’t see Hockenson surpassing Travis Kelce ($14,312,500) anytime soon as the number 1 tight end, I do see him as a mainstay in the top 5 for many years to come.

• Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) – 2 years/$1,507,045 – ADP 69.8

If I told you that you could have a cheap tight end who will likely finish around the 10 point mark every week in the sixth round of startups, you would strongly consider it, right? Well, that’s exactly what Pat Freiermuth is, and I only see him becoming more productive as he heads into his prime in the next couple of years. Freiermuth is one of Kenny Pickett’s favorite targets and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, making him a great value at this point in startup drafts.

• Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) – 3 years/$3,762,090 – ADP 77.7

When doing things like this based off of ADP, you will run into certain spots where you only have a handful of players to choose from and this was one of those situations. While I would probably go in a different direction in my own draft, the rules here would not allow it. If the Commanders find a quarterback anytime soon this may look like a great pick as Dotson has been very effective in the red zone and has shown some real positives thus far in his career.

• Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI) 2 years/$902,677 – ADP 84.6

Herbert is a lock to be Chicago’s starting running back this season and at an ADP of the eighth round, I feel that is an absolute steal. Herbert has the talent to do it all from being an effective runner between the tackles to catching the ball out of the backfield. The only real question with Herbert heading into 2023 will be his durability. If he can withstand a 17-game season, or even 12-14 games for that matter, he would be a huge value this late in startup drafts at the running back position.

• Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) – 3 years/$22,788,000 – ADP 103.8

In the ninth round, we surprisingly have our second Washington receiver in Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has been a stud ever since he stepped on to an NFL field, despite always having a below average quarterback and I see no reason that will change anytime soon. The only real negatives with McLaurin are his huge salary and sometimes up and down performance, though I’m putting the latter on the quarterbacks he has played with. If salary was not a factor, McLaurin would be going six rounds higher. If you can afford him, take him.

1. Sam Howell (QB – WAS) – 3 years/$1,005,400 – ADP 116.7

Ok I swear this was not planned nor noticed until the time of writing, but I have over half of Washington’s playmakers on this list! In all seriousness, how can you pass on Sam Howell in the tenth round of startup drafts as a starting quarterback with a salary a hair over $1,000,000. If Howell happens to hit, he may end up as the Dynasty Owner Value of the Year. I would take a chance on Howell here 10 times out of 10.

1. Alexander Mattison (RB – MIN) – 2 years/$3,500,000 – ADP 120.9

I put Mattison here based purely on the speculation that Dalvin Cook ($12,600,000) will be traded after June 1st. If Cook is gone, Mattison will be another one of those rare backs with the potential of becoming a workhorse in a top tier offense on a low salary. Mattison doesn’t have the talent of Cook, but he is good enough to finish as a top 10 running back if he sees enough production.

1. Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) – 2 years/$20,025,000 – ADP 137.5

I have to stay consistent, right? Allen is the first of several players appearing here from last week’s article in which I highlighted my favorite late round selections. While Allen is not a player you can build around anymore, that is not what you are looking for in the 12th round of a startup draft. Even if the worst-case scenario of Allen leaving L.A. happens after this season, I see no reason he won’t hop on with another contender. If you have the cap space, you won’t regret taking Allen as long as he stays healthy. If he doesn’t, use an Amnesty Provision (cost of $5,000,000 Dynasty Dollars) and add another high-priced wide receiver.

1. Chris Godwin (WR – TB) – 2 years/$20,000,000 – ADP 148.8

I won’t spend much time on the next three players as I spoke about all of them in last week’s article. Godwin is a top-level talent and I see him producing as long as he has close to an average quarterback under center.

1. John Metchie (WR – HOU) – 3 years/$2,017,543 – ADP 158.9

As I said last week, I like Metchie based on the potential he and C.J. Stroud ($9,069,811) have together. If the two click, Metchie could be Stroud’s number 1 guy for years to come. As an Ohio State fan, I am here to tell you if Stroud hits, he is going to be very good!

1. Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) – 2 years/$1,071,842 – ADP 177.0

See last week’s article for a more in-depth response. Carter may end up as the Jets’ starting running back for the first portion of the season and a nice compliment after that. In the 15th round, I have no issues taking a chance.

1. Diontae Johnson (WR – PIT) – 2 years/$18,355,000 – ADP 182.0

Diontae Johnson and Kenny Pickett really got on the same page in the second half of the season last year, and I am expecting that to continue into 2023. Johnson is a little pricey, but he is a near lock to see 80 catches and 1,000 yards making him worth the $18,355,000 price tag. If Pickett takes a step forward in year 2, this pick could become a steal in the later rounds.

1. Chase Claypool (WR – CHI) – 1 year/$1,654,156 – ADP 205.9

If this isn’t my Pittsburgh and Ohio State bias showing through, I don’t know what is. While Claypool no longer plays for the Steelers and was never a Buckeye, he has strong connections to both. In all honesty, I am expecting huge things from Justin Fields ($4,717,989) this season and I believe Claypool will be a big part of it. In the 17th round at a salary of less than $2,000,000, Claypool could pay off in a huge way.

1. Brandin Cooks (WR – DAL) – 2 years/$19,882,000 – ADP 220.3

If you haven’t noticed, wide receivers are plentiful in the later rounds, if you draft lower salary players early. Cooks has been a very good player on all 163 professional sports organizations he has been a part of throughout his short career and I expect that to continue in Dallas with Dak Prescott ($40,000,000) under center.

1. Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL) – 1 year/$5,250,000 – ADP 227.7

See last week’s article for a more in-depth response. Patterson has a negative outlook due to the drafting of Bijan Robinson ($5,489,634) and rightfully so. In the 19th round, I am drafting players based on potential and what ifs and Patterson has a lot of scenarios that he can produce in. My favorite scenario is where Patterson plays primarily at the wide receiver position, which I think will happen.

• Latavius Murray (RB – BUF) – 1 year/$1,317,500 – ADP 246.0

See last week’s article for a more in-depth response. Murray’s teammate, James Cook ($1,458,014), has as many question marks as any starting running back in the league. I can see a realistic scenario where Murray ends up as a top 12 running back in 2023.

• Leonard Fournette (RB – Free Agent) – $7,000,000 – ADP 258.0

If you have some extra cap space and need depth at running back, I would look at Fournette later in the draft. Fournette will catch on somewhere because of injury and will probably end up as a top 20 running back in 2023 for $2,500,000 or less.

• Darius Slayton (WR – NYG) – 2 years/$6,000,000 – ADP 270.3

Slayton had a solid 2022 and I don’t see any reason to think he won’t be heavily involved again after signing a new contract with the Giants. Even if Slayton only matches what he did last season, it’s well worth a $6,000,000 price tag and a 22nd round selection if you have the space this late in the draft. Remember we have Bench scoring here on Dynasty Owner (25% of the total points from the players on your Bench are added to your final score).

• Ben Skowronek (WR – LAR) – 2 years/$891,131 – ADP 278.0

I know this may not be a sexy pick at all, but the Rams did nothing to improve their receiving room. In fact, it probably got worse after losing Allen Robinson ($15,500,000) to the Steelers. If Skowronek ends up as the second or third receiving option for the Rams, he will be a huge value this late in drafts at such a cheap salary.

• KJ Hamler (WR – DEN) 1 year/$1,784,283 – ADP 294.0

I am taking Hamler here because he is cheap, has potential, and I love his fit in a Sean Payton coached offense. If Payton can get Russell Wilson ($48,517,647) playing at an average level, Hamler could be an effective Bench player for Dynasty Owners.

• Any Available Kicker Under $3,000,000

Hey kickers score points too! If there are any kickers left at a reasonable salary, I always grab them in the last couple of rounds.

Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the upcoming Dynasty Owner content. We have the Dynasty Owner podcast, the Dynasty Owner Livestream, and articles to help with your Dynasty Owner teams. Good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!

By: Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Dynasty Owners, welcome back to another off-season article with yours truly! We are currently hitting the last slow period of the NFL off-season before training camps fully get underway. We don’t have much exciting news to talk about at this point in time and because of that we will continue to gear up for those Dynasty Owner startup drafts which have already begun.

In today’s article, I have selected 10 players with an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 150.0 or lower, who can still help you with your goal of becoming a League Champion. Many of these players will have an expensive contract, meaning you will need to draft smart through the first 10 rounds of your startup to have a realistic shot at landing one of these players and not strapping yourself with very little cap space to work with after the draft is over. Pay attention as you will see some big-name players who would never drop this far in any other fantasy football draft.

All ADPs listed were current as of the afternoon of May 15th.

1.  John Metchie (WR – HOU) – 3 years/$2,017,543 – ADP 158.3

If John Metchie ends up hitting and producing in year 2, it may be one of the best storylines in NFL history. Shortly after the 2022 NFL Draft, Metchie was diagnosed with leukemia which caused him to miss his entire rookie season. Metchie is an extremely talented kid out of the University of Alabama who has a realistic chance of becoming the number 1 receiver for the Houston Texans during what will basically be his rookie campaign. Metchie will also have the chance to grow alongside new Texans’ franchise quarterback C.J. Stroud ($9,069,811). Should Metchie and Stroud gel early on in 2023, Metchie could end up as one of the best steals in startup drafts because of his low salary.

2. Keenan Allen (WR – LAC) – 2 years/$20,025,000 – ADP 163.0

I’m sure you will hear this often throughout this article, but where else in fantasy football are you able to find a talent like Keenan Allen this late in startup drafts. I know Allen is starting to age (31 years old) and is not someone Dynasty Owners are drafting in the first few rounds, but to have an ADP of 163.0 is an absolute bargain, even with a salary just over $20,000,000. In 2022, Allen was banged up early and often, but after he was able to get healthy, Allen was once again a difference maker for Dynasty Owners. Allen had a Dynasty Owner stat line of 58 catches, 650 yards and 2 touchdowns while helping Dynasty Owners win their league as most of his production came in the back half of the 2022 season. The Chargers did select Quentin Johnston ($3,547,195), the highly praised receiver out of TCU, in the NFL Draft but I don’t think Johnston will affect Allen all that much in 2023. To be honest, if Allen has two working legs and Justin Herbert ($6,644,689) is slinging him the rock, he’s worth a shot this late in startup drafts no matter how old he is.

3. DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI) – 2 years/$27,250,000 – ADP 179.0

In the 3rd spot, we have the seemingly quarterback proof DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has been an absolute monster throughout his career, and it has not mattered one bit who was under center throwing passes to the veteran receiver. The biggest downfalls when drafting Hopkins will be his massive contract and his age (30 years old), but if you draft smart through the first 10 rounds, you can fit his huge $27,250,000 contract under the cap no problem. In 2022, Hopkins put up solid numbers despite only playing in 9 games, finishing with 64 receptions, 717 yards and 3 touchdowns. Oh, and he did not have quarterback Kyler Murray ($46,100,000) in four games as well (plus Murray missed almost all of a fifth game). I don’t think it needs to be said, but I will remind you all just to be safe, when DeAndre Hopkins steps on an NFL field, he is as elite as it gets for fantasy football. He can be had at the end of the 15th round on average, at an ADP of 179.0, here on the Dynasty Owner platform.

4. Jared Goff (QB – DET) – 2 years/$33,500,000 – ADP 189.0

Up next, we have one of my favorite surprises of the 2022 NFL season, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff. I believe I may have been fired had I got on a podcast last off-season and predicted that Jared Goff would finish as a top 7 Dynasty Owner quarterback, yet here we are. The NFL is a strange place I tell you. During Goff’s breakout 2022 campaign, he put up fantastic numbers for a player who was available in close to all Dynasty Owner leagues at the beginning of 2022. Goff finished the 2022 NFL season with just under 4,500 yards passing and 29 touchdowns compared to only 7 interceptions. Goff will get offensive coordinator Ben Johnson back for at least one more season and while I am not sure we will see a full-on repeat of 2022, I am expecting Goff to hover around the top 10 quarterbacks for most, if not all, of 2023.

5. Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) – 2 years/$1,071,842 – ADP 181.0

I will be the first to admit that I am not sold on any running back I have on this list, but I had to pick at least a few of my favorite options for you all to choose from. Carter does come with some risk, but with an ADP of 181.0, it’s a risk worth taking at the running back position. Carter’s teammate Breece Hall ($2,253,694) went down with a torn ACL in week 7 last season. While I am expecting Hall to be back early in the season, Carter should see a lot of work as the Jets ease Hall back into the mix. Another huge positive working for Carter are his receiving skills out of the backfield and paired with Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667), I am expecting Carter to take over the Aaron Jones’ ($12,000,000) role from the Packers’ passing game. Carter did struggle towards the end of last season, but he saw a lot of stacked boxes that won’t happen with a future Hall of Famer under center.

6. Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL) – 1 year/$5,250,000 – ADP 228.3

Up next, we have a player that I am sure all of you will question because of the addition of highly touted rookie Bijan Robinson ($5,489,634), but I am sure Cordarrelle Patterson will still put up solid numbers in any PPR format. Yes, Bijan will see a ton of touches in 2023, but I am also expecting Patterson to see several carries per game, and I think he will be involved heavily in the short yardage passing game. I also believe we will see Patterson and Robinson on the field together early and often in 2023 and it’s very possible both have very good seasons here on Dynasty Owner as the Falcons ease Desmond Ridder ($1,340,740) into the full-time starting QB gig. If you are drafting Patterson, I would plan for him to be a one-year rental with the Falcons’ future at the position already on board.

7. Latavius Murray (RB – BUF) – 1 year/$1,317,500 – ADP 243.0

If you remember back to any of my articles from last off-season, you will recall that I am not a huge James Cook ($1,458,014) fan and still have my worries even with him slated to become Buffalo’s starting running back. My biggest concern with Cook is the fact he does not seem to break many tackles and while you can get by like that in the NFL, I don’t see it ever leading to a big fantasy season which bodes well for the journeyman behind him, Latavius Murray. Murray has played well for what seems like every NFL team in the past few seasons. In 2022 Murray played and produced in games for both the Denver Broncos and the New Orleans Saints in route to a 140.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy point season. Murray finished 2022 with over 650 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns while adding 26 catches for almost 120 yards through the air. If for some reason the Bills fall out of love with James Cook, it could be a big year for Murray at a cheap salary!

8. Chris Godwin (WR – TB) – 2 years/$20,000,000 – ADP 157.3

If we are being honest, I think Godwin’s ADP should be at least 20-30 spots higher but the perception of losing Tom Brady and gaining Baker Mayfield ($4,000,000) does not help Godwin’s case at all, though Brady was not a very good quarterback in 2022. While I am not expecting huge things from Mayfield in 2023, I don’t expect to see a big drop-off in offensive production in Tampa Bay. Mayfield was not elite by any means for the Rams in 2022, but he was serviceable and did not have much time at all to learn the team’s offense. I also feel Godwin fits very well with Mayfield and the pair should build chemistry quickly. Despite a rough 2022 season for the entire Buccaneers’ offense, Godwin was still able to post a stat line of 104 catches, 1,023 yards and 3 touchdowns and barring injury I am expecting him to do it again this season.

9. Zach Ertz (TE – ARI) – 2 years/$10,550,000 – ADP 193.3

When looking through the list of players, I had a tough time finding a late round tight end who I felt strongly about and despite the reservations I have with him, I am going to go with Zach Ertz. Outside of injury, my biggest concerns with Ertz are that he is on a rebuilding team, does not fit the Cardinals’ future plans, and the player behind him on the depth chart, Trey McBride ($1,574,916) happens to be the team’s future plan at the position. The reason I have Ertz on the list is because he looked great before going down to injury last season. Ertz only played in 9 full games in 2022 and was still able to produce a stat line of 47 catches, 406 yards and 4 touchdowns from the tight end position. Had Ertz stayed healthy the entire season, he was projected to finish inside of the top 5 tight ends here on Dynasty Owner. Should the Cardinals somehow tread water and stay in the hunt while quarterback Kyler Murray recovers from injury, we could see a huge second half from the veteran tight end.

10.Devin Singletary (RB – HOU) – 1 year/$2,750,000 – ADP 172.5

In the final spot of the 2023 startup draft late round targets, we have none other than Houston running back Devin Singletary! The best example I can think of for a player like Singletary is a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. It will never totally blow you away, but it will always get the job done and that’s exactly who Devin Singletary is when he steps onto an NFL field. Singletary signed with Houston and will slot in behind second year running back Dameon Pierce ($1,118,858), but should still see plenty of work with a rookie quarterback under center for the Texans. Should Pierce come back slow from his ankle injury, we may see Singletary in a featured back role for the first couple of weeks of the season, which is an added bonus this late in the draft. In 2022, Singletary shared time in the Buffalo backfield and was still able to finish with 848 yards rushing and 5 touchdowns on top of 39 catches for 283 yards and another touchdown. Singletary’s well rounded skill set should fit nicely into the Texans’ offense.

Thank you all for reading and be sure to check out all of the upcoming Dynasty Owner content. We have the Dynasty Owner podcast, the Dynasty Owner Livestream, and articles to help with your Dynasty Owner teams. Good luck on your 2023 Chase for the Ring!

Ladies and Gentlemen, Start Your Engines!

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33)

That’s how they start the Indianapolis 500 and seems like an appropriate way to get started with the 2023 Dynasty Owner season. True, it’s still the off-season as no NFL teams have started training camps and we don’t even know the entire schedule yet. The full schedule will be out on May 11th, so it may have already happened by the time you’re reading this.

That doesn’t matter because it’s finally time for Dynasty Owner startup drafts to begin for everyone. New and returning Dynasty Owners drafted in the first startup drafts of the 2023 season this past weekend and I have the full draft results from five of those startups so that I can dig into some real draft data. The results of these five drafts are not a complete look at how Dynasty Owner startup drafts, or rookie drafts, will proceed for the rest of the season.

Dynasty Owner cannot have any startup drafts until after the NFL Draft is completed in order to know the salaries of drafted (and undrafted) rookies. In case you are new to Dynasty Owner, the uniqueness of our format and the use of real NFL contracts and salaries makes our startup drafts much different than an off-season startup draft conducted in a “regular” dynasty fantasy football league. Expensive veteran players are far more likely to be drafted late, or not drafted at all. Rookies from 2023 plus undrafted rookie free agents and late round NFL Draft picks from previous seasons are much more valuable and taken far earlier in Dynasty Owner than other dynasty formats. That’s been true in the previous Dynasty Owner seasons, and we’ll find out if that’s the case in these inaugural startup drafts.

The results of these five startup drafts are from the first weekend of drafting on Dynasty Owner (May 6th and May 7th). The player’s Average Draft Position (ADP) was calculated using these five drafts and differs from the ADP that appears on Dynasty Owner. Any position ranking data and stats listed are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution.

Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

All salaries and roster percentages listed were current as of the afternoon of May 10th. Salary information for rookies who have not officially signed their rookie contract comes from the Spotrac NFL 2023 Draft Tracker page (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/) and is subject to change and updating.

Who’s #1?

In previous Dynasty Owner seasons, this was a question with a fairly straightforward answer as traditionally, a player who produces at a high level with an inexpensive salary and more than one year left on his contract is the top selection. Back in 2020, it was Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000) as he had finished as the top player in Dynasty Owner in 2019 with 514.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points and had an extremely affordable contract of $2,367,912 at the time.

In both 2021 and 2022, Jonathan Taylor ($1,957,287) was the consensus overall #1 pick in Dynasty Owner startup drafts. In 2021, he had a 2.3 ADP in all Dynasty Owner startup drafts, which was a slight bit higher than his 1.9 ADP in the initial weekend startup drafts. His ADP was slightly better in 2022 at 1.8 after his RB1 finish in Dynasty Owner in 2021 with 389.1 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

This year, it’s anyone’s guess who will be taken with the first overall pick. Taylor may have been at the top again, but he stumbled in 2022 due to injuries, only played in 11 games and finished with just 147.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points. The top two scorers in Dynasty Owner in 2022 were Patrick Mahomes ($45,000,000) and Josh Allen ($43,005,667), but their expensive contracts could make them unlikely choices for the first overall pick. Jalen Hurts ($1,506,292) has a dirt-cheap 2023 salary and finished fourth overall in scoring last year with 452.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points despite missing two games. However, he recently signed a 5-year, $255 million contract extension with the Eagles. His contract on Dynasty Owner will explode to $51 million starting in 2024. Drafting Hurts will give your startup team a top player for little money this year, but you’ll be paying almost $49.5 million more for him next season.

Only one team went this route with the first pick (Mad Rabbit in League #206158) as they selected Ja’Marr Chase ($7,704,910). We had three other players taken with the first overall pick in the other four startup drafts that we are looking at from the first weekend of drafts.

• Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL): 4 years/$5,489,633 (League #206160 by Dirty Birds)
• Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN): 1 year/$3,280,701 (League #206156 by Ground Toast)
• Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC): 9 years/$45,000,000 (League #219521 by Journeymen and League #219525 by Lamar’s Brinks Truck)

Mahomes being a first round pick is unconventional, but to take him as the overall #1 pick is completely different than what has happened mostly in the past. While he did lead the Chiefs to the Super Bowl and can lead your Dynasty Owner startup team to its League Championship, it is more difficult to do because of the salary limitations that come with spending $45 million on the first player in the draft. Admittedly, Mahomes is likely not coming back to your team at the end of the second round because he had an ADP of 7.6 and was taken in the first round in four out of the five of the startup drafts we are focusing on. If he’s “your guy” and you got the first pick, you have to draft him if you want him on your team. Just be aware if you do it, then drafting in the middle and later rounds will be more difficult.

First Round Draft Selections

With all leagues having 12 teams, we know that at least a dozen players will be first round draft picks. However, not every startup Dynasty Owner draft will feature the same 12 first round selections and this year, we had 22 different players taken in the first round. Five players were drafted in the first round of all five startup drafts. Interestingly, none of those five players are a QB.

Player	Position	Team	2023 Salary	ADP
Justin Jefferson	WR	Vikings	$3,280,701	2.6
Bijan Robinson	RB	Falcons	$5,489,633	2.6
Ja’Marr Chase	WR	Bengals	$7,704,910	4.0
Jonathan Taylor	RB	Colts	$1,957,287	7.4
Garrett Wilson	WR	Jets	$5,138,502	8.6

Garrett Wilson was a surprise to me, but probably not Jay Pounds who had Wilson as the #12 pick in last week’s first mock draft article before these startup drafts took place. Did Jay’s article and explanation for including Wilson influence these Dynasty Owners or did they come to the same conclusion? I don’t know the answer, but it’ll be interesting to see if Wilson continues to be a first round pick as more startup leagues start drafting.

Another thing these five players have in common is that they are on their rookie contracts. We had very few Dynasty Owners take a player who makes more than $10 million with their first round pick. Only eight of them did it in total with four players chosen. Patrick Mahomes is obvious as we had two Dynasty Owners draft him with the #1 overall pick, but two other Dynasty Owners also took Mahomes in the first round. Two took Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875) with their first round pick, while one Dynasty Owner took Josh Allen with the #2 overall pick, and it was in one of the leagues (League #219521) in which Mahomes was the top pick. Finally, one Dynasty Owner drafted A.J. Brown ($25,000,000) with the overall #9 pick. That pick was a complete outlier as no other Dynasty Owner has drafted Brown so far with as much as the last pick of the second round (pick #24) and his ADP in these five startup drafts was 31.8. That Dynasty Owner must really love A.J. Brown as much as some other Dynasty Owners love certain players.

Fan Club Presidents Meeting

If you really like a guy and draft him early, the joke is that you are the President of his Fan Club. Back in 2019, I was the President of the Jimmy Garoppolo Fan Club since I was in four leagues (two redraft, one regular dynasty and Dynasty Owner) and had him in all four. The Dynasty Owner (MassageMyWatson) who took A.J. Brown with the ninth overall pick has been nominated for A.J. Brown Fan Club President.

While we may poke fun at these Dynasty Owners for these selections, it doesn’t mean they are bad Dynasty Owners. The 2021 Fan Club President winner (The Oracle ?) drafted Kirk Cousins ($35,000,000) in the sixth round with the #69 pick. Don’t worry as The Oracle ? got his revenge as his League #71014 team finished in fourth place overall in the 2022 Chase for the Ring standings and was only one of three teams to go undefeated for the entire season.

In the same spirit, I would like to nominate the following Dynasty Owners as President of the Fan Club of the following players. To be nominated, you had to draft a player at least two full rounds before he was drafted in any other startup draft. You also had to draft him a full round ahead of his ADP. For example, if you took Player A in the first round with the #10 pick and based on the other startup drafts, he would have been available with your #34 pick and his ADP was 22.0 or higher, then you’re nominated for President of that guy’s Fan Club.  Without further delay, here are the nominees (in team name order):

• Arizona Phoenix (League #206156) – Bengals K Evan McPherson ($955,928)
• Bugslayer17 (League #219525) – Chargers WR Keenan Allen ($20,025,000)
• Hyenas (League #219521) – Ravens QB Lamar Jackson ($52,000,000)
• iss The Baby (League #216160) – Cowboys QB Dak Prescott ($40,000,000)
• Lamar’s Brinks Truck (League #219525) – Ravens WR Odell Beckham Jr. ($15,000,000)
• Sooner (League #206156) – Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby ($1,348,229)
• Two Minute Warning (League #206158) – Giants QB Daniel Jones ($40,000,000)
• Ubuntu (League #206156) – Saints WR Rashid Shaheed ($750,000)

Drafting an inexpensive kicker in the middle rounds before other teams draft a player at the position is a Dynasty Owner strategy that I advocate and believe in. However, Arizona Phoenix took it a little further by grabbing Evan McPherson in the seventh round with the #76 pick. His ADP is 120.6 and he was taken in the 10th to 13th rounds in the other drafts, so he likely would have been around for a couple of more rounds if Arizona Phoenix had to have him.

Bugslayer17 took Keenan Allen with their fifth round pick (pick #58). They didn’t know that would be eight rounds before anyone else in the other four drafts did. Allen wasn’t even drafted in League #219521 which had their startup draft on the same day. Allen had an ADP of 163.0, which would be even higher if Bugslayer17 hadn’t taken him so early.

Several teams in League #219521 drafted expensive QBs much earlier than the teams in other startup leagues. Kcmiami2023 took Josh Allen with the overall #2 pick, right after Patrick Mahomes was taken with the first pick by Journeymen. Hyenas saw Mahomes and Allen go first and second, then six other QBs were drafted when they decided to use their #34 overall pick in the third round on Lamar Jackson. Maybe they would have waited if they knew his ADP would be 106.0 at the conclusion of these startup drafts and no other Dynasty Owner would take Lamar before the seventh round.

Dak Prescott was a third round selection (#35 pick) by Kiss The Baby in League #206160. However, he went undrafted in League #206156 and was taken in the last round (pick #298) in League #206158.

Daniel Jones was selected in only three of these five startup drafts. While Dynasty Owners in two leagues don’t want him and his $40 million salary, the same cannot be said for Two Minute Warning who scooped him up with their sixth round pick (pick #68). They also drafted Isaiah Hodgins ($870,000) later on so it’s probably just a good feeling about the Jones-Hodgins connection in 2023.

Rashid Shaheed is a feel-good story. As an undrafted rookie free agent from Weber State, he didn’t even make the Saints roster out of training camp last year. He signed with their practice squad at the end of August and before the end of October, he had a rushing TD on his first NFL carry and a receiving TD on his first NFL catch. Unbuntu liked Shaheed’s story (and his $750,000 salary) so much that they drafted him with the #29 pick in the League #206156 startup draft. That may have been a reach with a third round pick considering he wasn’t drafted until near the start of the 11th round at the earliest in the other startup drafts.

Finally, we come to the Fan Club Presidents for rookies. Tank Bigsby went to Auburn and was born and graduated from high school in Georgia. I was hoping for an Oklahoma connection that made Sooner pick him in the eighth round (pick #89) when no one else took him before the 11th round and his ADP in these startup drafts was 133.0. Maybe Sooner just knows something good about Bigsby that nobody else in these drafts knows, or maybe Sooner just has a case of Rookie Fever. More on that later.

Those are all fine Fan Club Presidents, but we have a winner, and it wasn’t even close. You may have already guessed who it is since we skipped them in the order. The undisputed #1 Fan Club President so far this year easily goes to Lamar’s Brinks Truck. They drafted Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ) with the final pick in the second round (pick #24 overall). Beckham wasn’t drafted at all in one Dynasty Owner league and his second highest draft position wasn’t until the 23rd round (pick #272). He was also drafted in the 24th round (pick #284) and the 25th and final round (pick #292). His ADP of 218.0, but it would have been higher in the 200s if it hadn’t been for his Fan Club President Lamar’s Brinks Truck. Congratulations!

After what The Oracle ? accomplished last year after “winning” this title in 2021, it’s clear that this is all in good fun. It’ll be sweet revenge for Lamar’s Brinks Truck if OBJ leads them to their League Championship this year or if they appear on the Chase for the Ring Leaderboard at any point during the upcoming season.

Rookie Fever

The order that rookies are selected in startup drafts are definitely helpful in drawing insights into how the rookie drafts will go in a few weeks, but they don’t give us a complete picture. The startup drafts have the full salary cap of $157.36 million to use and acquire rookies, while teams in established leagues already have players on their rosters and may not have enough salary cap room for all of the rookies they want to draft. Teams in established leagues are able to cut down their roster, but still must have at least 25 players plus draft picks on their roster at all times. Those players take up salary cap space and may leave Dynasty Owners with limitations on who they can draft.

For example, if you have $12 million in salary cap space and two draft picks, you can select Bryce Young ($9,488,767) with your first rookie draft pick, but you will be limited to players with salaries of $2,511,233 or less for your second pick. All of the remaining NFL first round draft picks, as well as second round NFL Draft picks Will Levis ($2,385,541) and a pair of TEs, Sam LaPorta ($2,366,497) and Michael Mayer ($2,328,411), are all too expensive. This restriction doesn’t come into play until the end of startup drafts as most of the prized rookies are taken fairly early.

Here are the ADP for all of the rookies with a startup draft ADP of under 100.0 in the first five startup drafts. All drafted rookies have four years on their rookie contracts at the listed 2023 salary.

Player	Position	Team	2023 Salary	ADP
Bijan Robinson	RB	Falcons	$5,489,633	2.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	Seahawks	$3,604,326	34.2
C.J. Stroud	QB	Texans	$9,069,810	45.6
Bryce Young	QB	Panthers	$9,488,767	46.4
Anthony Richardson	QB	Colts	$8,498,507	50.2
Jordan Addison	WR	Vikings	$3,432,934	57.4
Quentin Johnston	WR	Chargers	$3,547,194	57.8
Zach Charbonnet	RB	Seahawks	$1,719,020	72.4
Dalton Kincaid	TE	Bills	$3,356,755	74.4
Devon Achane	RB	Dolphins	$1,359,362	76.6
Zay Flowers	WR	Ravens	$3,509,108	77.0
Michael Mayer	TE	Raiders	$2,328,411	83.8
Sam LaPorta	TE	Lions	$2,366,497	94.6
Jonathan Mingo	WR	Panthers	$2,214,149	95.8

There are 14 rookies with an ADP of under 96.0, which is the end of the eighth round. On average, if you want any of these rookies, you need to draft them in the first eight rounds of your Dynasty Owner startup draft or you might miss out on them. The biggest surprise isn’t Bijan Robinson with an ADP of 2.6, even though that’s pretty amazing. For me, the biggest surprise is Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a late third round pick (ADP 34.2). This is slightly inflated by his selection with the ninth overall pick in one startup draft. However, the latest he was drafted in any of the five startup drafts was with the 52nd pick. Even if we removed the draft in which he was taken ninth, his ADP would still be 40.5 and better than both Stroud and Young.

Two first round picks were taken on average behind a Day 2 or Day 3 NFL Draft pick. They were Dalton Kincaid who was taken on average about two picks after Zach Charbonnet and Zay Flowers who was behind Charbonnet, Kincaid and Devon Achane in startup draft ADP. Considering the landing spot in Seattle for Charbonnet with Ken Walker ($2,110,395) already on the Seahawks’ roster, it’s surprising to see him as the top Day 2 or Day 3 NFL draft pick with an ADP of 72.4. That’s not much higher than Devon Achane’s ADP of 76.6 and Achane was a third round NFL Draft pick while Charbonnet was drafted in the second round.

In case you were wondering about all of the Day 3 picks and who’s the top one in terms of startup draft ADP, I have your answer. The first Day 3 drafted rookie is also the rookie with the best ADP who has a salary of under $1 million. It’s Dallas RB Deuce Vaughn ($993,333) who was taken with the 212th pick in the NFL Draft, but had an ADP of 134.4 in these five Dynasty Owner startup drafts. My guess for this honor would have been Kayshon Boutte ($1,007,450) but I’m a biased Patriots fan and he had an ADP of 187.2, which is over four rounds later than Vaughn on average.

Where in Dynasty Owner Are the Expensive QBs?

With apologies to Carmen Sandiego, but in large part, they aren’t on a lot of Dynasty Owner rosters. Believe it or not, there are only 16 QBs currently on NFL rosters with a salary of $10 million or more on the Dynasty Owner platform. The lowest paid of these $10 million plus QBs is Jimmy Garoppolo ($24,250,000), but the reason for using the $10 million mark is that all NFL QBs still on a rookie deal make less than that amount. The highest paid QB under $10 million is the 2023 overall #1 pick Bryce Young.

After Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, we have to drop all the way down to Lamar Jackson before we find a QB making more than $10 million in these rankings. For comparison, Mahomes had an ADP of 7.6, Allen’s ADP was 25.4 and there are 13 QBs on rookie contracts before we get to Jackson (ADP 106.0). Don’t cry for Lamar as he was at least drafted in all of these startup drafts.

That’s a lot more than the following five expensive QBs can say. None of them were taken in any of the five Dynasty Owner startup drafts we are looking at. Here’s the list (in order from highest to lowest salary):

Player	Age	Team	Years Left	2023 Salary
Aaron Rodgers	39	Jets	4	$50,271,667
Russell Wilson	34	Broncos	6	$48,517,647
Kyler Murray	25	Cardinals	6	$46,100,000
Matthew Stafford	35	Rams	4	$40,000,000
Ryan Tannehill	34	Titans	1	$29,500,000

That’s not to say that one of the handful of teams with enough salary cap room to fit one of these QBs didn’t go get them off the Free Agent Auction and they are now on a startup team roster. However, they weren’t drafted at all.

The rest of these expensive QBs were drafted in between three to five startup drafts. The list of expensive QBs taken in all five startup drafts is short and contains only Geno Smith ($25,000,000) who had an ADP of 110.6 and Jimmy Garoppolo ($24,250,000) who had a much higher ADP of 199.2. Not surprisingly, those two are at the bottom of the expensive QB list.

Daniel Jones was only taken in three startup drafts and his ADP of 140.0 was the best. Deshaun Watson ($46,000,000) was next among the QBs taken in three startup drafts with a 162.7 ADP. Derek Carr ($37,500,000) brings up the rear among these QBs with an ADP of 209.3 despite the fact that he was drafted with the 92nd pick in one startup draft.

Both of the NFC North QBs in this group were taken in four out of five startup drafts. Kirk Cousins had a lower ADP (158.3) than Jared Goff ($33,500,000) who was taken just over two and a half rounds later on average (ADP 189.0). The other QB who was taken four times is Dak Prescott ($40,000,000) and he had quite a range of draft possibilities as we saw earlier.

Kick It!

Dynasty Owner has kickers. Sorry to all of you who don’t like kickers or prefer to not have them on your fantasy football team, but they are a part of Dynasty Owner. A total of 39 kickers were drafted overall including 11 who were Free Agents at the time of these startup drafts.

In order to show that we appreciate and value our kickers in Dynasty Owner, here is some information about them in regard to these five startup drafts.

• Kicker with the lowest ADP – Evan McPherson of the Bengals who had an ADP of 120.6. This is not a surprise as McPherson has the second lowest salary for a kicker who is pretty much guaranteed to be his NFL team’s kicker in Week 1. McPherson still has two years on his rookie contract and finished his rookie season of 2021 as the fourth ranked kicker in Dynasty Owner (144.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points) and followed it up as the 12th ranked kicker in 2022 (113.0 Dynasty Owner fantasy points).
• First kicker drafted in any league – It was Ravens kicker Justin Tucker ($6,000,000) who got the first nod by Fire405 in the sixth round with the 62nd overall pick in League #206156. Tucker may be the most expensive kicker in Dynasty Owner, but he also hasn’t finished outside of the top 5 kickers in the four years of Dynasty Owner.

Mr. Irrelevant

So far, a total of 394players have been drafted in these five startup drafts, including five players who have the special title of Mr. Irrelevant (aka the last player chosen in each Dynasty Owner startup draft). All of these teams are hoping that this pick works out as well as the San Francisco 49ers’ selection of Brock Purdy ($934,252) as Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 NFL Draft.

• Giants WR Darius Slayton ($6,000,000) – League #206156 by Boomer Bashers
• Jets RB Zonovan Knight ($750,000) – League #206158 by Baltimore Ravens
• Colts WR Isaiah McKenzie ($1,232,500) – League #206160 by No Integrity
• Ravens WR Nelson Agholor ($3,250,000) – League #219521 by Thrills Mafia
• Titans QB Malik Willis ($1,290,025) – League #219525 by what’s a salary cap?

Congratulations to all five players for being selected in those Dynasty Owner startup drafts, even if it was with the last pick. And good luck to the Dynasty Owners who selected them and everyone else who drafted on the first startup draft weekend of 2023.

Conclusions

What did we learn, if anything, from this analysis of these five Dynasty Owner startup drafts?  

The two main lessons learned are that no two leagues are the same and there is no consensus #1 overall pick. The Dynasty Owner startup draft order is randomized and selected 12 hours before your draft time. If you really want a specific player on your roster, you may not need one of the top picks to acquire him. It’s also ok to be a Fan Club President and take a guy “too early”. Somebody might make a joke or two, but if the player does well, you’re just ahead of the curve or a better judge of talent than almost everybody else.

If you didn’t get into a Dynasty Owner startup draft on the first weekend, don’t worry. There are startup drafts coming this weekend, throughout the rest of May, and the entire summer until the start of the NFL season. Go to your D.O. Store and click on New Team for 2023 to see when you can draft this coming weekend.

Dynasty Owner has plenty of content to help you with your Dynasty Owner startup team or any of your established Dynasty Owner teams. Matt Morrison – The Jerk had his second Best Case, Worse Case article published earlier this week, while Jay Pounds and I did a couple of articles recapping the NFL Draft with one devoted to all of the first round picks and a second article highlighting some of the Day 2 and Day 3 selections. There will be more articles all off-season from the three of us.

Jay and I also do a weekly Dynasty Owner podcast, while I get to join Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer on the weekly Friday Livestream. We did a live mock draft during the Livestream last week and if you missed that, go see what happened on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Steven Van Tassell is the Head of Content for Dynasty Owner

Follow us on Twitter: @SteveVT33 and @Dynasty_Owner

By Matt Morrison (@dynastyjerk)

Hello all. I’m Matt, and I’m back with another Dynasty Owner article for you this week. Two weeks ago, I started writing a new series called “Best Case, Worst Case”. The first article of the series was published on April 24th and focused on the NFL Draft and how certain players could be impacted by drafted rookies. Today, I will break down how those predictions look now that the NFL Draft has concluded. In addition, I’ll also write about one rookie who was taken in the NFL Draft and what his best and worst case outlooks are for him during the upcoming season.

Best, Worst Case Draft Recap

Jordan Love ($3,095,863)

“Best Case: The best case for Love in the 2023 NFL Draft is that he remains as the starting quarterback. This may seem like an obvious statement, but if the Packers use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on QB, then there will be at least some sort of competition for the starting spot over the next couple of years… In addition to no early QB picks, a first round wide receiver would do wonders for Love’s confidence.”

Love’s draft situation falls a bit short of the Best Case scenarios that I laid out for him. I stated that the best case for him would be if the Packers pass on QB (at least through the first three rounds) and also draft a wide receiver in the first round. The Packers did indeed wait on quarterback until the fifth round when they drafted Sean Clifford ($1,041,046) from Penn State. I don’t expect much competition for Love from Clifford though.

He didn’t, however, get a first round wide receiver. Instead, the Packers used a second round pick on Jayden Reed ($1,795,194) from Michigan State. At the moment, it looks like Love will enter the 2023 season with Christian Watson ($2,310,258), Romeo Doubs ($1,085,979) and Jayden Reed as his primary wide receivers. Side note: It has now been 21 years since the Packers have drafted a wide receiver in the first round.

Tony Pollard ($10,091,000)

“Best Case: Best case for Pollard is that the Cowboys add a Day 3 running back to the mix while also adding an offensive lineman in one of the first two rounds.”

Pollard’s pre-season stock definitely increased following the NFL Draft. While the Cowboys didn’t select an early offensive lineman, they also didn’t add another RB to their team until Deuce Vaughn ($993,333) in the sixth round.  I actually liked Vaughn coming out of college, but no running back selected in the first five rounds solidified Pollard as the primary running back for the Cowboys this year.

Ken Walker III ($2,110,395)

“Best Case: Best case for Walker is that the Seahawks pass on QB with their first 1st round pick (1.05) and that they pass on running back with their second 1st round pick (1.20).”

Just like Love, this case is lukewarm. Yes, they didn’t use either of their first round picks on running backs, and yes, they didn’t draft a rookie QB, but I still feel a little tainted with how the draft went for Walker. With the Seahawks 21st pick in the second round, they took Zach Charbonnet ($1,719,020) from UCLA. Even second round draft capital on a running back seems like a lot for a team with a workhorse running back already. I have no doubt that Walker will get the majority of the touches and have the most fantasy value for the Seattle backfield, but Charbonnet will eat into Walker’s touches at least a little bit. Think of Walker as a fringe RB1 this season instead of a Top 6 RB.

This is also obviously devastating to Charbonnet’s fantasy value since it appears he will be sitting behind one of the best young running backs in the league.

Isiah Pacheco ($934,777)

“Best Case: Best case for Pacheco is that the Chiefs draft a wide receiver in the first round, and they stay away from running back until Day 3 of the NFL Draft.”

Pacheco fared very well on draft day. The Chiefs took wide receiver Rashee Rice ($1,623,801) with their second round pick. Other than that, the Chiefs selected no other players at offensive skill positions in the NFL Draft. Kansas City still has a crowded backfield, but it looks nearly identical to how it looked last season.

DK Metcalf ($24,000,000)

“Worst Case: This is the best part about Metcalf for the next couple of years…I really don’t see that much of a downside for him. The worst case is that the Seahawks pass on QB in the first round, and they draft a WR with the 20th pick.”

This is one of those predictions that is eerily true. The Seahawks did pass up Will Levis ($2,385,541) with the 1.05 pick and they drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3,604,326), the best available wide receiver with the 1.20 pick. Do I think this was a good long term move for Seattle? I do, but I also don’t see it paying off much until Tyler Lockett ($17,250,000) leaves the team. Regardless, Smith-Njigba will take some targets away from both DK and Lockett, but I don’t see it being enough to be fantasy relevant. Expect both veteran receivers to be in the top 20 yet again, and expect Smith-Njigba to be a fringe WR3 for the 2023 season.

Best Case, Worst Case

Jahmyr Gibbs ($4,461,282)

Jahmyr Gibbs was drafted by the Detroit Lions with the 12th overall pick. Gibbs was the second running back off the board this year, and he went a tad earlier than I think most people expected him to go. In addition, the Lions traded D’Andre Swift ($2,134,728) to the Eagles shortly after the NFL Draft ended. The Lions’ RB depth chart now sits at Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery ($6,000,000) to start the post-draft pre-season. So, what is the best and worst case for Gibbs this season?

Best Case: The best case for Gibbs is that he becomes the lead running back very quickly after the season starts. Montgomery should see a decent number of touches a game (6-10) even if Gibbs comes out and displays that he is the better player. Montgomery will for sure vulture a good amount of touchdowns away from Gibbs as well. I think it’s a virtual lock that Montgomery will get at least five touchdowns this year. Another best case for Gibbs is if the Lions use him in a wide receiver role given the fact that Jameson Williams ($4,365,448) will miss the first six games of the NFL season.

Best Case Statistics Prediction: 1,011 rush yards, 68 receptions, 402 receiving yards, 7 TDs, 251.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

A total of 251.3 Dynasty Owner fantasy points last year would have put Gibbs as the RB10 between Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson ($1,057,264). Again, this is not what I’m predicting he’ll do. This is just what I believe to be the best case scenario for him this year.

Worst Case: The worst case for any player is obviously a season-ending injury, and I am not going to include that in any of my scenarios because I think that it doesn’t need to be said. Barring an injury, the worst case for Gibbs is that he is slowly worked into NFL game action and David Montgomery comes out hot to start the season. The idea that Gibbs will only be used as a third down back makes me think that he could have a low ceiling. A lack of rushing touchdowns and playing time in general is one scenario that could keep Gibbs out of the RB1 and RB2 category this season.

Worst Case Statistics Prediction: 405 rush yards, 19 receptions, 100 receiving yards, 2 TDs, 81.5 Dynasty Owner fantasy points.

This is a very unlikely scenario for Gibbs as he has so much draft capital invested in him, but this is what I predict to be his rock bottom floor. It would have made him RB57 in Dynasty Owner last season.

Message me on Twitter (@dynastyjerk) and let me know if you have any questions or concerns. I would appreciate it if you followed @Dynasty_Owner on Twitter as well as subscribed to Dynasty Owner on YouTube. Thank you all. Take care and be safe.

TheJerk

Everyone Loves Tight Ends

By Steven Van Tassell (@SteveVT33) and Jay Pounds (@jaypoundsnfl)

Day 2 and Day 3 of the 2023 NFL Draft took place on Friday night and Saturday afternoon and after all of the surprises from the first round, it was anybody’s guess if NFL teams would do anything to top what happened on Day 1. If you want to read about all of those surprises from the Dynasty Owner perspective with player and team draft analysis plus rookie salary information, then check out the First Round Recap and Reactions article or the Dynasty Owner Livestream that both Jay and I did with Tim on Friday morning.

The second round was a TE lovers’ dream with five of them getting drafted. Four of the teams that took a second round TE (Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay and Las Vegas) are teams that really appear to need a starter at the position. We’ll find out if they got one and how much those players can produce at the NFL level soon.

The Tennessee Volunteers dominated the third round with four of them being selected in the round, after only one (new Bears offensive tackle Darnell Wright) was taken in the first two rounds. We’ll check with our Dynasty Owner NFL Draft ambassador Joshua Reilly (aka Jet Chip Wasp) about how many times he heard Rocky Top on Friday night.

Day 3 was the Day of the Backup QB as nine teams took a QB in the final four rounds. Seven of those players have a legitimate chance to be their team’s backup QB for the 2023 season and maybe see regular season game action. Nobody really expected Brock Purdy ($934,252), the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, to see the field for San Francisco last year, but he did and played very well before suffering an injury in the NFC Championship game.

With six rounds to cover, we can’t possibly look at every player who will soon be in the Dynasty Owner player pool. Not even all of those backup QBs. However, we picked some of our “favorite” players to analyze. Not necessarily the best or worst picks, or picks from our favorite NFL teams (although somehow there are two Patriots mentioned), but rookies who will likely be taken in your Dynasty Owner rookie drafts and merit discussion before those start soon.

All stats cited are based on the Standard Dynasty Owner scoring system as outlined in the updated Dynasty Owner Constitution. Standard Dynasty Owner scoring gives you .1 points for every yard rushing or receiving, .1 point for every 2 yards passing, 1 point per reception, 6 points for a rushing, receiving or passing touchdown and 2 points for a successful 2-point conversion (rushing, receiving, or passing). Interceptions or fumbles lost cost you 3 points, while a fumble that is recovered by the player’s team is a loss of only 1 point. Bonus points are available for 100-199 yards rushing (2 points), 200 yards rushing or receiving (6 points), 300-399 yards passing (1 point) and 400 yards passing (4 points). There is also a 3 point bonus for clutch scoring, which is a score that results in a lead change in the final two minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime. Kickoff and punt return touchdowns are worth 6 points for the player and kickoff and punt returns are worth 1 point for every 40 yards.

All salary information for players selected in the NFL Draft comes from the Spotrac NFL 2023 Draft Tracker page (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/) and is subject to change and updating.

Quarterbacks

A total of 14 QBs got drafted in total with 11 drafted on Day 2 and Day 3 combined, including seven who were drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds. There’s plenty of QBs to review and unless you want to read a 15,000 word article, we can’t do everyone. Here are the most interesting non-first round QB selections.

33rd Pick: Will Levis (QB – TEN): 4 years/$9,542,166 ($2,385,542 per year)

The Will Levis watch was over pretty quickly on Friday night as the Tennessee Titans moved up to the second pick of the second round to draft him. Levis was rumored to be either the first or second overall pick, but then ended up not being taken in the first round at all. Levis started his college career at Penn State, but wasn’t able to win the starting QB job so he transferred to Kentucky. In 24 career games at Kentucky, he threw for 5,232 yards and 43 touchdowns while completing 65.7% of his passes. He also threw 23 interceptions.

It would appear that Levis will compete with Malik Willis ($1,290,025) to be the backup to Ryan Tannehill ($29,500,000) in 2023. This is the final year of Tannehill’s contract, so whoever wins the backup QB battle would seem to be the favorite to be the Titans’ starter in 2024. Ironically, Willis is another QB who fell out of the first round of the NFL Draft, then was drafted later on by the Titans after the team moved up to select him. Now, Willis is seemingly on the outs with Tennessee and competing with Levis.

Jay’s Take:  Another draft, another player falling way past where we expected them to go. Levis will be an extremely cheap option for our Dynasty Owners, but the issue is the fact that he has veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill in front of him. It should only be a matter of time before the Titans hand the keys over to Levis and let him learn on the fly, but we could see a very similar scenario to the Marcus Mariota ($5,000,000) and Desmond Ridder ($1,340,740) situation in Atlanta last season. I am not sure Levis will go in the top half of the first round of many Dynasty Owner rookie drafts, but I do expect him to go in the back end of the first round, or early in the second round a lot.

Steve’s Take:  To me, Levis always seemed like a strange player to be a first rounder. Despite all of the physical tools, he will be 24 years old at the start of the NFL season and couldn’t even beat Sean Clifford to start at Penn State. With a salary of only $2,385,542, which is over $6.1 million less than the other three QBs drafted in the first round this year, the physical tools and potential, I think somebody in most Dynasty Owner leagues is going to draft Levis in the top half of the first round. If I’m in your league and you want him, don’t worry as it won’t be me picking him that high.

68th Pick: Hendon Hooker (QB – DET): 4 years/$5,719,022 ($1,429,756 per year)

It took more than another full round before the Lions drafted Hendon Hooker early in the third round. He’s in a similar spot as Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, and Matt Corral ($1,273,561) were last year as a QB touted as potentially being a first round pick who was drafted in the third round. Hooker has been in college since 2018 and even played at Virginia Tech before transferring to Tennessee. He played 18 games at Virginia Tech and 24 at Tennessee and overall, had a 66.9% completion percentage, 8,974 passing yards, 80 TDs and only 12 INTs during his lengthy college career. However, he is already 25 years old and suffered a season-ending ACL injury in November to end time in college.

The bad news is that he’s very unlikely to overtake Jared Goff ($33,500,000) as the starter. However, the Lions’ backup QB prior to the draft was Nate Sudfeld ($1,600,000) who has thrown only 37 passes since being drafted in 2016 and has just one TD pass in his NFL career. Goff has been very durable during his NFL career, but injuries happen, and Hooker is one injury away from being at the helm of the Lions’ high-powered offense.

Steve’s Take: If I’m not planning to contend in 2023, then Hooker would be a very interesting player to draft at the end of the first round of your Dynasty Owner rookie draft. He was a better college QB than Levis, played in the same conference, and is almost $1 million less expensive. Dynasty Owners with Goff (74.04% rostered) should really target Hooker in their rookie drafts.

Jay’s Take: Hendon Hooker is a very talented quarterback, but there are plenty of concerns as he is coming off of a knee injury and will be stuck behind Jared Goff for at least the 2023 season. The biggest concern for Hooker outside of the injury has to be his age as he will be 26 before the 2023 playoffs ends. I believe Steve hit the nail on the head on Hooker’s landing spot, as we should see him go early 2nd round to most of our rebuilding Dynasty Owners who can afford to wait for him to see the field.

128th Pick: Stetson Bennett (QB – LAR): 4 years/$4,539,140 ($1,134,785 per year)

Bennett has been the QB for the two-time National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. His statistics in the past two seasons are good, but not as good, as some of the other SEC QBs drafted ahead of him. He threw for 6,990 passing yards with a 66.7% completion rate, 56 TDs and 14 interceptions. Similar to Hendon Hooker, he is also 25 years old and will turn 26 during the 2023 NFL regular season.

He’s also in the same situation as Hooker, except he doesn’t have any competition to be the backup to Matthew Stafford ($40,000,000) right now. The Rams are likely to sign a veteran backup QB, but if Stafford gets hurt and the Rams’ season goes like it did last year, Sean McVay may want to see what Bennett’s got. There have been rumors that the Rams would like to trade Stafford and if that happened during the season, it may be Bennett’s team for at least part of the 2023 season.

Jay’s Take: I had picked Stenson Bennett as Dynasty Owner’s Mr. Irrelevant a few weeks ago, but the fact the mastermind Sean McVay drafted him much earlier than expected definitely changes my tune on Bennett. I now have Bennett as an early third round pick and could see him sliding into the second round with a few juicy rumors. I also believe Bennett has the best chance of all the later picks at quarterback to see the field since Matthew Stafford suffered two concussions last season.

Steve’s Take: I’m really not sure that the Rams want to trade Stafford because he led them to a Super Bowl victory and has an amazing connection with Cooper Kupp ($26,700,000). I think Bennett is as likely as Will Levis and more likely than Hooker to play in 2023. If Bennett finishes the 2023 season as the Rams’ starting QB, he’s  also more likely to be supplanted as the starter the next year than Levis or Hooker. Jay had him as his Dynasty Owner Mr. Irrelevant and I thought that was a great prediction before the NFL Draft happened. Now, I think someone in most Dynasty Owner leagues will pick him up before the final rookie draft selection since he landed with the Rams.

Tight Ends

The only thing more surprising than having TEs listed after QBs in this article is the fact that five of them got drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft and nine were taken in the first three rounds. Let’s look at the players picked by three of the most TE needy teams in the NFL.

34th Pick: Sam LaPorta (TE – DET): 4 years/$9,465,990 ($2,366,498 per year)

The surprise second TE taken in the NFL Draft was Sam LaPorta from Iowa. He’ll likely move into the starting TE spot in Detroit that was filled by fellow Hawkeye T.J. Hockenson ($9,392,000) until the middle of last season. None of the four Lions’ TEs is the clear starter, so the starting spot is wide open. The offense would seem to be TE-friendly as Shane Zylstra ($940,000) had a three TD game after Hockenson was traded and Brock Wright ($940,000) had a two TD game the next week. LaPorta had quite a lot of receptions (153) and receiving yards (1,786) in four years of college football, but few TDs (5). He had over 50 receptions and 650 receiving yards in each of the past two seasons.

Steve’s Take: It’s difficult to go wrong with an Iowa TE, at least recently. Iowa claims to be Tight End U, but until George Kittle ($15,000,000) broke out after being drafted in the fifth round in 2017, the players drafted mostly had non-descript or non-existent NFL careers. Detroit really needs a starting TE, had a good offense last year (ranked 8th in passing yards and passing TDs) and those factors could make LaPorta a late first round or early second round Dynasty Owner rookie draft pick.

Jay’s Take: I have to admit I am pretty sad LaPorta was drafted this high, but I am not all that surprised. LaPorta is an extremely talented tight end who should do well at the NFL level. LaPorta could not have asked for a better landing spot with the starting tight end spot in Detroit as wide open as it gets. It would not surprise me to see him come out and put-up similar numbers as Pat Freiermuth ($1,507,045) in his rookie season in Pittsburgh (TE13 with 150.7 Dynasty Owner fantasy points). LaPorta does come with a little bit of risk as he will be north of $2,000,000 against your salary cap and will likely eat up a mid-second round Dynasty Owner rookie draft pick.

35th Pick: Michael Mayer (TE – LV): 4 years/$9,313,646 ($2,328,412 per year)

Michael Mayer averaged 69 receptions, 824.5 receiving yards and 8 receiving TDs over his past two seasons at Notre Dame. He led the team in receptions in each of those seasons and was widely expected to be a first round NFL Draft pick this year. That didn’t happen, but he didn’t have to wait long to hear his name called during the second round.

The Las Vegas Raiders signed Darren Waller ($17,000,000) to an extension last year, then traded him to the New York Giants this off-season. The Raiders did sign veteran free agents Austin Hooper ($2,750,000) and O.J. Howard ($1,232,500) to one-year contracts, but neither one has experience with new Raiders’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($24,250,000) or head coach Josh McDaniels.

Jay’s Take: I still firmly believe Mayer was the best all-around tight end in the NFL Draft and I see him having the best rookie season. In my opinion, Mayer also has the benefit of the best landing spot for all tight ends. Most of us expected Mayer to be picked in the first round of the NFL Draft, but with that not happening, Dynasty Owners got a nice savings against the salary cap along with the much more friendly landing spot. I originally had Mayer going in the 1st round of Dynasty Owner drafts, but I believe he is now a lock to see an early 2nd round rookie draft ADP.

Steve’s Take: Both Hooper and Howard are on their third team in three seasons and haven’t finished as a top 20 TE in Dynasty Owner since 2019 (Hooper) and 2018 (Howard). Therefore, Mayer should be the favorite to be the primary TE for the Raiders this season. Since Josh McDaniels had success in New England with Rob Gronkowski that might give Dynasty Owners (and Raiders’ fans) optimism that Mayer could be the next Gronk. While LaPorta was drafted before him in the NFL Draft, my expectation is that Mayer will be drafted ahead of LaPorta in more Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.

42nd Pick: Luke Musgrave (TE – GB): 4 years/$8,475,732 ($2,118,933 per year)

78th Pick: Tucker Kraft (TE – GB): 4 years/$5,537,934 ($1,384,484 per year)

Green Bay took TEs in back-to-back rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft. Second round pick Luke Musgrave tallied 47 receptions for 633 receiving yards and 2 TDs in 20 college games at Oregon State, while third round pick Tucker Kraft had better college stats (99 receptions, 1,211 receiving yards and 9 TDs) for the 2022 Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) Champion South Dakota State Jackrabbits.

It’s not looking good for Josiah Deguara ($1,136,941) as Green Bay could use both Musgrave and Kraft in two TE formations and leave Deguara as the third TE. They may just release Deguara outright after his TE69 finish with 24.4 Dynasty Owner fantasy points (13 receptions for 114 receiving yards) last year.

Steve’s Take: Who’s going to play more out of these two TEs is anybody’s guess right now. I’ll say Musgrave because it will be difficult for Kraft to transition from playing the Missouri State Bears to the Chicago Bears. That’s also why I’ll say that Musgrave will be drafted ahead of Kraft and drafted in more Dynasty Owner rookie drafts. Both of them are mid-to-late second round rookie picks due to the lack of any TEs standing in their way to playing right away in 2023.

Jay’s Take: I am in the same boat as Steve with not knowing which one of these two tight ends to grab. I am honestly not all that sure either will be a difference maker during their rookie season, unless one sees time at wide receiver. I will have a better answer after I watch more film, but at the current moment taking either of these guys before Round 3 of a Dynasty Owner rookie draft seems like a gamble. I am also expecting Green Bay to be a run-first team with Aaron Rodgers ($50,271,667) finally in New York, which does not bode well for either of the two rookie tight ends in fantasy.

Running Backs

A total of 18 RBs were drafted in total with 10 of them taken in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. After Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs were drafted in the first round, only Zach Charbonnet was taken in the second round by Seattle, who drafted Ken Walker ($2,110,395) in the second round last year.

81st Pick: Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN): 4 years/$5,490,614 ($1,372,654 per year)

In his senior season at Tulane, Tyjae Spears ran for 1,581 yards on 229 carries (6.9 yards per carry) and 19 touchdowns. His performance was good enough to earn him the American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Year award. He had over 100 rushing yards in each of his last eight games cumulating in the Green Wave’s Cotton Bowl victory over USC when he had 205 rushing yards and 4 TDs on just 17 carries.

Despite those accolades, this pick has been labeled as questionable, at best, by writers who follow the Titans for two reasons. First, the Titans already have one of the best RBs in the NFL in Derrick Henry ($12,500,000) on their roster, while fielding what may be the worst group of WRs in the league. Second, Spears apparently doesn’t have an ACL in one of his knees and had ACL injuries in both high school and college.

Steve’s Take: Ian Rapoport from the NFL Network has labeled him as one-contract player, but that’s not a bad thing for Dynasty Owners, especially since his first contract will only cost them $1,372,654 per year. While Tennessee has Henry and he has been durable (only missing 10 games in his career), it’s possible that the Titans move on like Carolina did last year with Christian McCaffrey ($16,015,875). If that happens, Spears could be the RB1 in Tennessee since his current competitors for the spot are Hassan Haskins ($1,088,055), Jonathan Ward ($895,000), and Julius Chestnut ($750,000). Seems worth a mid-second round Dynasty Owner rookie draft pick to me. Higher if you have Henry and want to hedge your bets.

Jay’s Take: Well, you learn something new every day. I had not seen the news about Spears not having an ACL in one of his knees, but it does not change my opinion of him all that much. Even with the possibility that Derrick Henry could be traded, this pick did not make much sense at all. The Titans drafted Hassan Haskins last season and still roster King Henry. If the Titans are bad enough to trade Henry, does it really matter who their running back is at that point? The Titans should have taken a receiver to grow alongside Treylon Burks ($3,592,398) and Will Levis, but they took Spears instead and made for another not so fun landing spot in the 2023 NFL Draft. Spears should expect to find himself taken in the third round in upcoming Dynasty Owner rookie drafts.

215th Pick: Zach Evans (RB – LAR): 4 years/$3,973,334 ($993,334 per year)

Zach Evans got a great landing spot for a sixth round draft pick with a checkered past. As Nate Christian pointed out in his 2023 RB preview for Dynasty Owner back in early October last year, he had a whirlwind of a college recruitment before landing at TCU. He spent two seasons at TCU before transferring to Ole Miss. All totaled, he rushed for 1,999 yards on 290 carries (6.9 yards per carry) and 18 TDs in his college career.

Landing with the Rams was good for Evans as they only have three RBs on their current roster, starter Cam Akers ($1,543,258) and backups Kyren Williams ($992,601) and Ronnie Rivers ($750,000). Unless they sign a veteran RB, Evans should have little problem making the roster.

Jay’s Take: Evans does have a bit of an injury history, but he also has a great track record of shredding opposing defenses. I don’t hate his landing spot as we have seen his new teammate Cam Akers in the doghouse once already and it would only benefit Evans if it were to happen again. While I do have good things to say about the landing spot, it is not all sunshine and rainbows as both Akers and Kyren Williams played well last season. Regardless of what happens, Evans should be a late round Dynasty Owner rookie draft pick and will not cost you much against the salary cap, making him a mostly risk-free draft pick with a lot of upside.

Steve’s Take: Normally, I’m not a huge fan of drafting players with such a questionable past as Evans. However, it seems highly likely that he is going to make the Rams’ roster as a sixth round draft pick with a salary of under $1 million. I’m totally willing to take a chance on Evans in the third round of Dynasty Owner rookie drafts and don’t think I’m alone in that assessment.

Wide Receivers

No offensive position had more players drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft than WR with 33 players drafted by 27 teams. Only Atlanta, New York Jets, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Washington didn’t draft a WR, while five teams (Cincinnati, Green Bay, Houston, Los Angeles Chargers and New England) drafted more than one. Green Bay took three WRs, to go along with the two TEs mentioned earlier. That’s a lot of new weapons for QB Jordan Love ($3,095,863). The first round had four WRs drafted in a row, while two WRs from Tennessee were drafted back-to-back in the third round.

73rd Pick: Jalin Hyatt (WR – NYG): 4 years/$5,625,314 ($1,406,329 per year)

74th Pick: Cedric Tillman (WR – CLE): 4 years/$5,610,457 ($1,402,614 per year)

Talk about similarities! For their college careers, Hyatt had 108 receptions for 1,769 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns, while Tillman had 109 receptions for 1,622 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. Tillman did it in fewer games (24) than Hyatt (29), but also missed half of the 2022 season, while Hyatt only missed the Orange Bowl victory over Clemson last year. Tillman is three inches taller and weighs 37 lbs. more, but is also almost a year and a half older. Hyatt is faster and performed better at the NFL Combine where his Total Score of 87 was the best among participating WRs.

The landing spot advantage definitely goes to Hyatt. Both teams have 13 WRs on their current roster, but Cleveland has a clear WR1 in Amari Cooper ($20,000,000) while the Giants do not. Hyatt should leap ahead of Darius Slayton ($6,000,000), Parris Campbell ($4,700,000), Wan’Dale Robinson ($2,046,292), Sterling Shepard ($1,317,500), Isaiah Hodgins ($870,000) and the rest of the Giants WRs more easily and quickly than Tillman can get ahead of Elijah Moore ($2,235,107) and Donovan Peoples-Jones ($870,402) on the Browns’ depth chart.

Steve’s Take: Sometimes in Dynasty Owner, you can make your final decision on who to draft based on salary. If you have two similarly ranked players and they have significantly different salaries, then the lower salary should tip the decision to that player. This is not happening in this instance unless you need to save $3,715 in salary. If both of them are around when you’re on the clock, then the other factors mentioned (NFL team, college production, age, height, weight, speed, etc.) will determine who gets picked earlier. It’ll be interesting to see who has the lower rookie draft ADP after all of the rookie drafts are done. I’m not going to make a prediction here because of how close it appears to be now.

Jay’s Take: I wholeheartedly agree with everything Steve said above. The salary tends to be the tiebreaker on the Dynasty Owner platform, but as we see, it is not the case in this scenario. Both of these young men have a ton of talent, but both also come with flaws of their own. In the end, it will come down to who works harder and wants it more between the two of them. Right now, I think I would choose Hyatt because he does have an easier road to targets and may even be the most talented receiver on his team. The same will never be said about Tillman as long as Amari Cooper stays in Cleveland.

187th Pick: Kayshon Boutte (WR – NE): 4 years/$4,027,258 ($1,006,815 per year)

Kayshon Boutte was considered a first round NFL Draft pick after having 38 receptions for 509 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in only six games for LSU during the 2021 college football season. He followed that up with just 48 receptions for 538 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in 11 games during the 2022 season under a new coaching staff and tested poorly at the NFL Combine. That dropped him out of the first round and even out of being selected on Day 2 of the NFL Draft before New England took him with the 10th pick of the sixth round.

The top two WRs for New England are likely to be 2023 free agent acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster ($8,500,000) and 2022 trade acquisition DeVante Parker ($7,625,000), but after that, it’s pretty wide open. Boutte will likely compete with Kendrick Bourne ($5,000,000) and Tyquan Thornton ($1,763,464), a 2022 second round draft pick and personal favorite of Dynasty Owner PACKER-H8TER, for playing time.

Jay’s Take:  Wow, I was way off on Boutte! I did have him mocked as the 1.13 bonus first round rookie draft pick, but I don’t believe that will be the case any longer. I believe he is an extremely talented kid who stuck around for an awkward coaching change at LSU, and it cost him on the field and in the NFL Draft. I am expecting him to prove his doubters wrong and play much better than his draft capital would suggest. Ladies and Gentlemen, I think Bill Belichick finally hit on a wide receiver. Expect Boutte to be a late second or early third round rookie draft pick on the Dynasty Owner platform.

Steve’s Take: I appreciate Jay’s confidence, but have too many battle scars of bad Patriots WR draft picks with N’Keal Harry ($2,524,587) being the most recent example to be as positive about this pick. The range of outcomes for Boutte in New England are as high as being the team’s WR1 and as low as getting cut by Bill Belichick before the first pre-season game. Right now with all of the talk about him being the “steal of the draft” and the “next homegrown Patriots receiver”, I think he’ll go higher than anticipated for a guy who was the 22nd WR taken in the NFL Draft. He won’t go as high as the 1.13 pick that Jay had him at in his article a few weeks ago, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s drafted in the second round of a least a few Dynasty Owner rookie drafts, especially by teams that have limited salary cap room. He’ll definitely be selected in more Dynasty Owner rookie drafts than any other Day 3 WR, barring some negative news before those rookie drafts are finished.

Kickers

Now we come to everyone’s favorite position. While you may not like it, you need to have a Starting kicker on your Dynasty Owner team and preferably a Bench kicker too. If you don’t want to spend $4 million or more on your Bench kicker, then here are a couple of rookies for you to keep your eyes on.

99th Pick: Jake Moody (K – SF): 4 years/$5,304,082 ($1,326,021 per year)

112nd Pick: Chad Ryland (K – NE): 4 years/$4,626,753 ($1,156,688 per year)

Moody won the Lou Groza award for the top college football placekicker in 2021 and never missed an extra point in college (148 for 148). Of course, the goalposts are wider, and the college extra point is 15 yards shorter than the NFL extra point. Neither of the two Groza winners prior to Moody are on a NFL roster currently so take everything mentioned with a large grain of salt. Ryland didn’t win any awards, but was named to the All-MAC Second Team in both 2020 and 2021 for Eastern Michigan and made the All-Big Ten Second Team in his only year at Maryland.

Of course, both of these kickers could turn into the next Tyler Bass ($869,805) or Evan McPherson ($955,928) even if their rookie contracts are somewhat higher. Bass has been a top 12 kicker in Dynasty Owner in all three of his seasons, while McPherson has finished both of his seasons among the top 10 kickers. The Moody pick was surprising as the 49ers just traded for kicker Zane Gonzalez ($2,250,000) a few weeks ago.

Steve’s Take: People love themselves a cheap Dynasty Owner kicker, me included. Since I have Patriots’ incumbent kicker Nick Folk ($2,500,000) on five out of my six Dynasty Owner teams and Gonzalez on two teams, I’m not happy about these picks at all. Because of that, I’ll be looking to draft either Moody and Ryland at the beginning of the third round of my Dynasty Owner rookie drafts and maybe both if I have multiple third round picks. I won’t be alone as plenty of Dynasty Owners took McPherson in 2021 rookie drafts and he ended up the year as the fourth ranked kicker. A similar phenomenon occurred with Cade York ($1,097,410) last year, but he wasn’t as good and ended the 2022 season as the 24th ranked kicker.

Jay’s Take: I won’t spend a ton of time here as Steve hit the nail on the head. Long story short, yes, these two guys are worth a third round rookie draft pick. If I sent you a trade offer that almost guaranteed you similar production and $1,000,000 in cap savings for four years, you would give me a third round pick all day, right? Draft one of these kickers in the third round if you have the opportunity.

Conclusion

Of course, these aren’t the only players selected on Day 2 and Day 3 of the NFL Draft who will find their way on to Dynasty Owner rosters. With 37 picks over three rounds and 82 players eligible to be drafted in Dynasty Owner rookie drafts (14 QBs, 18 RBs, 33 WRs, 15 TEs and 3 kickers), it wasn’t realistic to analyze all of them. However, over the past two articles and few days, we’ve tackled 24 of the most likely players to be selected. Not all of them as there will be some surprises, some late third round rookie draft flyer picks as well as undrafted rookie free agents with good buzz (and cheap salaries) who garner attention from some Dynasty Owners.

If you want to get started figuring out who you’re going to take in your rookie draft(s), the rookie mock draft lobby is open for your drafting enjoyment.

There was a lot of Dynasty Owner content released last week and if you missed it because you were so focused on the NFL Draft, then go back and read, watch or listen to all of it. In addition to Friday’s recap and reaction of the first round article, Matt Morrison – The Jerk had his first Best Case, Worse Case article published last Monday, my article discussing players who might lose their jobs was published last Tuesday and the latest episode of the Dynasty Owner podcast dropped on Wednesday morning.

Don’t forget to watch the Livestream that aired live on Friday at 10 AM (Eastern). Both of us plus Dynasty Owner CEO Tim Peffer talked about the players taken in the first round and some of the players who weren’t taken, but did get drafted eventually in the second round. That one and prior episodes of the Livestream are available on the Dynasty Owner YouTube channel. Please remember to give the Livestream a Thumbs Up and help out Dynasty Owner. It is appreciated. Finally, don’t forget to follow Dynasty Owner on Twitter. Thanks for reading and have a great day!

Follow Steve, Jay and Dynasty Owner on Twitter:

@SteveVT33, @Jaypoundsnfl and @Dynasty_Owner